3 reasons the Canucks will struggle without Thatcher Demko
What could go wrong did go wrong in the Canucks first game without star goaltender Thatcher Demko, and it could foreshadow a massive struggle.
Thatcher Demko’s injury could not have come at a worse time for the Vancouver Canucks, who were getting hot once again following a bad February. In Vancouver’s first game since Demko’s injury, they picked up a point, but the Canucks ended up blowing a big lead. And it makes you wonder if that would have happened if they had their star goaltender in the net.
All season, Demko has been one reason the Canucks have been such a dangerous hockey team, given his 34 wins, a 0.653 quality starts percentage, a 2.47 GAA, and a 0.917 save percentage. These all indicate that Demko would be a strong contender for the Vezina, and his current injury shouldn’t be a setback if he returns before the regular season ends and picks up where he left off.
It also hurts because we are just one week past the NHL trade deadline, and the Canucks could have made a move to at least bring in a more capable backup than Casey DeSmith. Goaltenders like Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen (both traded to the New Jersey Devils) were available, as was Vitek Vanecek, who was part of the Kahkonen trade.
Canucks could struggle with Thatcher Demko sidelined
Since Vancouver missed out at the trade deadline, they’re forced to turn to backup goaltender Casey DeSmith. DeSmith is in his first season with Vancouver, and it’s been a rough road, to put it generously, following five serviceable but unspectacular seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
DeSmith’s numbers this year have also been a far cry from Demko’s, and he hasn’t played often. So it’s a mystery to see how the 32-year-old will fare when asked to start most, if not every, game in the star goaltender’s absence.
Since Demko has been so valuable to the Canucks throughout the season, there is a good chance they will struggle with DeSmith, and at times, Arturs Silovs in the net.
Casey DeSmith is not a starting-caliber goaltender
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Casey DeSmith has never been capable of more than just a timeshare, which was the case during his stint with the Pittsburgh Penguins before he came to British Columbia. While he put up some sensational numbers in Pittsburgh, he also never recorded over 30 starts in a single season during the best days of his career.
Last season was the only outlier when he saw action in 38 games with 33 starts. The result was a 15-16-4 record, a 0.905 save percentage, and a 3.17 GAA. A 0.485 quality starts percentage to go with seven ‘really bad starts’ indicates that, when asked to play or start in a large cluster of games, DeSmith isn’t the guy you want in the net.
That trend continued into the current season when, despite a decent 0.556 quality starts percentage, he’s also on pace to set a new career-high of ‘really bad starts,’ with five so far in 18 starts. His 2.91 GAA is also the second-worst mark of his career, and his 0.897 save percentage is his lowest number through six seasons in the league.
Vancouver allows way too many shots on goals per game
In actuality, the Canucks have only allowed 29.19 shots on goal per game, which is the 16th-highest in the NHL. This is a middling number that, at first glance, doesn’t look too bad. And with a star goaltender like Thatcher Demko, sitting in the middle of the pack is a pretty good position to be in, especially when you consider the number of contenders that have allowed more.
Demko has faced 30.1 shots on goal per game, however, while DeSmith has faced just 26.6 per in his 20 appearances (28.7 in 18 starts), and this is where the number gets interesting. In Vancouver’s loss to the Colorado Avalanche, DeSmith faced 34 shots on goal and saved 30 of them, good for just an 0.882 save percentage.
While DeSmith helped record a shutout on March 9th vs. the Winnipeg Jets, it’s also worth noting he faced just 10 shots on goal. Before last night’s loss, he only saw seven games of action when he faced 30 or more, finishing with a 4-1-2 record and 4-1-3 after last night, good for 11 points.
This could indicate DeSmith plays better in the net when he’s facing such a high volume of shots. But it’s also important to remember that he’s averaged roughly one game per week. Now that he’s the main guy in the net, considering he’s faced a high number of shots on goal infrequently and has, overall, faced fewer shots on goal per game than Demko, this could easily wear down a player who is clearly a backup goaltender.
There isn’t a single easy game left on the schedule
You may look at the Canucks upcoming schedule and raise your eyebrows since their next four games are against teams who are currently not in a top-three spot in their division, nor are they holding onto a wild card spot. But at this time of the year, teams who aren’t playing meaningful games in March (and April) are every bit as tough as those who are.
While the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres are within striking distance of a wild card spot, and for that reason, shouldn’t be underestimated, the Calgary Flames and Montreal Canadiens have nothing to lose. So, Vancouver is playing two teams with a heightened sense of urgency, while the other two will play a reckless brand of hockey. We also know the Los Angeles Kings and Dallas Stars are tough enough, but the Anaheim Ducks fit in the same mold as Calgary and Montreal.
You can turn this argument around and say the same thing is the case for other playoff contenders and division leaders, and you will be right. The difference? They aren’t missing their star goaltender, and this is where the Vancouver Canucks fall short.
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(Data provided by Hockey-Reference)