The Vancouver Canucks had a surprising but also thoroughly deserved 3-2 win over the high-flying Edmonton Oilers on Saturday night. A week earlier they impressively blanked the Maple Leafs 3-0 in Toronto, but the reality is results such as this have been to rare of late.
As much as the two wins over their Canadian rivals help highlight the overall talent and depth on the Canucks' roster, they are just not producing positive results on a regular enough basis. The last time they won consecutive games was at the end of November, and since then they have only seven total victories in their past 22 games.
The Canucks have been embroiled in plenty of adversity this season, most notably the ongoing and ever-growing rift between J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, which now seems more certain than ever to see one of them traded away. (Miller.) As a result of everything, the team finds themselves just outside of a playoff spot ahead of Monday's slate of NHL games.
With all of this in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Canucks are not viewed particularly favourably in The Athletic's updated NHL predictions for the 2024-25 season (subscription required). Published every month since October, the predictions have been put together by Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle and and the rest of The Athletic's NHL Staff.
No cup on the horizon for the Canucks
In respect of actually winning the Stanley Cup, to be fair the Canucks have not been among any of The Athletic's staffs' picks since the initial predictions. However, at least they received some votes to finish as runner up in both November and December, albeit only at 3.2 and 3.8 percent respectively.
Now though, the Canucks are down to 0.0 percent to make it to and lose in the Stanley Cup Final, which is fair given how things have gone for the team in the past few weeks. Of course fans would prefer not to lose the Stanley Cup Final for the fourth time in franchise history, but to not even be seen as having a chance to do this, alludes to a team just not perceived right now as a genuine contender.
Last season saw the Canucks' produce the third-most points in franchise history, raising the bar (and hopes) ahead of the 2024-25 campaign. As a result of this combined with how they have fared so far, they are now considered the second-most disappointing team in the NHL at 7.4 percent, albeit well behind the New York Rangers at 88.9 percent.
At least the Canucks are still predicted to be a playoff team
In terms of actually making the playoffs, the Canucks were considered a 100 percent certainty by The Athletic in their original predictions, which made sense. Now, they are considered a 81.5 percent certainty which is still good in the grand scheme of things, although it's interesting that they are the only one of the eight Western Conference teams predicted to make it, who aren't at 100 percent. (The Calgary Flames, who are currently battling the Canucks for the final playoff spot in the West, are only at 7.4 percent.)
In a season of so much uncertainty and inconsistency, the one constant in Vancouver has been Quinn Hughes, who is actually elevating his game and proving what a special talent he is. And yet in The Athletic's initial predictions for this season, he was actually at 0.0 percent to win a second straight Norris Trophy.
At least some common sense has prevailed in the subsequent updated predictions, to the point that Hughes is now considered second favourite for the Norris, at 22.2 percent. No surprise that Cale Makar is considered favourite at this stage, at 59.3 percent, but it is ridiculous that Hughes was getting no love back in October.
Finally, and still om the subject of Hughes, he is actually getting some interest when it comes to winning the Hart Trophy. This speaks volumes how about well he is playing, with The Athletic not even consider him as a candidate in their first three predictions editions.
The two-time NHL All-Star is tied-fourth to win the Hart, at 7.4 percent, while Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl are unsurprisingly the two clear favourites. However, that Hughes is even included is one of the few highlights for the Canucks, in a season which at this point is equally as capable of surging north or plummeting south.