With the NHL entry draft fast approaching, we at the The Canuck Way will leave no stone unturned when it comes to looking at each and every prospect that the Canucks might consider for their selection. Today we look at Finnish centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
Looking for a potential first line centerman in this draft is like trying to find an analytics person who’s watched Don Cherry’s “Rock’Em Sock’Em” videos. The chances are very slim (there are simply not enough controlled zone exits in “Rock’Em Sock’Em” to get the analytics guys mentally aroused).
This is very surprising, since many have touted this to be a strong draft, but how can it be strong if it doesn’t have a potential number one centerman available? The only prospect (at least in my mind) who can save this “strong draft” label is Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
For someone who is held in such high regard now, Kotkaniemi was barely a blip on anyone’s radar to begin the year, let alone a potential 10 pick. In fact, most scouts were of mind that fellow Finn Rasmus Kupari was the guy to hone in on.
Related Story: 2018 NHL draft profile #19: Rasmus Kupari
At the start of the season Kotkaniemi showed above average hockey IQ and skills, but his skating didn’t move the needle for scouts. However, as the season progressed his skating improved a quite a bit, and it showed in his stats too.
With already a strong frame, great ability, and now a vast improvement in his skating, Kotkaniemi started to turn heads in the hockey community quickly. As you will see when we break down the stats, Kotkaniemi has all the attributes to thrive in the NHL.
The stats rundown
*Counting stats provided by EliteProspects
Height: 188 cm/6’2”
Weight: 86 kg/190 lbs
Team (league): Assat (Liiga)
Rankings:
#6 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (EU Skaters)
#7 by Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects)
| GP | G | A | P |
| 57 | 10 | 19 | 29 |
There is no sugar coating it folks, putting up over half a point a game in the top Finnish men’s league as a 17 year old is extremely impressive. His production was better than the likes of star players Mikko Rantanen and Sebastian Aho when they were the same age; he also produced numbers in the ballpark of both Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine‘s draft years.
Having offensive success playing against men in your draft year is a great barometer for potential NHL success, but sometimes it may not translate. Take for example Winnipeg Jets forward Joel Armia, who had a better U18 season in Liiga than Kotkaniemi. His numbers were fantastic, but he was not a 200 foot player and as a result his scoring has not translated to the NHL (well, at least not yet).
What makes Kotkaniemi’s production so promising is that he plays a complete game that will translate well. These skills help players continue to be productive as they face stiffer competition, and it will certainly help Kotkaniemi when he moves to the NHL.
The best part about all of this is that he is merely scratching the surface. If his skating can continue to improve, then Kotkaniemi can not only be a good number one center, but one of the best in the entire NHL.
Scouting reports
Cam Robinson, Dobber Prospects:
"Great puck skills, vision and processing skills, but skating still a work in progress. Offers a clunky stride that doesn’t generate a ton of top-end power. That didn’t stop him from putting up more than respectable numbers Liiga though, albeit from the wing. A strong Five Nations and U18 tournaments while playing the middle of the ice should convince scouts that’s where he belongs long term. May not be flashy, but gets the job done. Appears to have the highest upside of the centres in this crop."
Mattias Strozyk, Elite Prospects:
"A smart forward with a dangerous shot, Kotkaniemi possesses a high hockey IQ and determination with the skills to back it up. Positions himself well and often seems to be a step ahead of plays. Stickhandling and creativity allow him to split professional defences as a teenager. Decent size and frame, yet a very capable skater."
Craig Button, TSN:
"He plays the game in a similar fashion to Anze Kopitar and to Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews."
What we think
We think Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a fantastic prospect. However, the only problem is do the Vancouver Canucks need another center? That depends on whether management is fully convinced that Elias Pettersson can play center.
If they feel that, then drafting Kotkaniemi will give the Canucks an embarrassment of riches at the position (Pettersson, Kotkaniemi, Bo Horvat, and Adam Gaudette).
However, if management is not fully sold on Pettersson at center, then drafting Kotkaniemi would give them a solid “plan B.” He could play center and Pettersson slots in on the right wing. With Petterson, Brock Boeser, and Jake Virtanen on the right wing, along with Kotkaniemi, Horvat, and Gaudette down the middle, the Canucks would have strong depth at those positions.
Next: 2018 NHL draft profile #9: Evan Bouchard
To be honest, I do not see Kotkaniemi falling to 7, as there is a certain bleu, blanc, et rouge team that have keen interest in taking him at number 3.
High-end centers with size do not grow on trees, so if he is available at seven the Canucks should seriously consider taking him.