A Look Ahead: Why the Canucks Will Make the Playoffs

As I write this post the Vancouver Canucks are gearing up for their road game against the Minnesota Wild. There has been some discussion among Canucks fans recently, suggesting that the next five or six games are crucial for the Canucks’ playoff hopes. In one sense, this notion is a little misguided. A look at Sport Club Stats reveals that the Canucks currently have an 88.5% chance to make the playoffs. Although the odds fluctuate based on performance, an 88.5% chance with 31 games left is pretty good. A look at the standings reveals that the team is sitting in seventh place, tied with Calgary at 61 points. But the Canucks have two games in hand, and the next closest team is Minnesota, with 56 points.

But here is where there is some truth to the idea that the next few games are crucial. A win against Minnesota would put seven points between them and the Canucks with only 30 games left to play. It is very difficult to make up that kind of ground, even in 30 games. So with that in mind, I want to look at how the next five games (after Monday’s game against the Wild) might go. It will be a tough stretch of games: the Blackhawks on the road, the Bruins at home, Calgary on the road, the Wild at home, then the Rangers on the road. As any prognosticator will tell you, the best way to look at the future is to look at all the potential scenarios. So we’ll play a little game I have creatively named “Scenarios” (I encourage you to click that link if you want to see the hardest work I’ve ever done to set up a pun). We’ll look at three scenarios: the best case, the worst case, the most likely. And for a bonus we’ll look at the least likely scenario, which will be ridiculous. You have been warned.

Best Case Scenario

The Canucks showed us on Saturday that they can still work hard and score goals when they want to. The problem recently is that their “wanting” hasn’t always lined up with their “needing.” If there are any two games where the Canucks need to play with intensity, it’s the next two against the Blackhawks and Bruins. These will be two “measuring stick” games against tough opponents. If they can win one of those two games, they’re in good shape to get at least three wins out of the next five games and put themselves comfortably in playoff position.

Here’s the problem I have though: I think the Canucks would be better off missing the playoffs this year. I really like what Benning and Linden have done with the team so far, but I just don’t think this team is playoff ready. Age is becoming a serious issue with this team, and it lacks the kind of depth it needs to make a deep playoff run. With this years’ draft class being touted as one of the deepest in quite a while, I think the Canucks would do well to miss the playoffs and pick around the 8-12 position in the 2015 draft. Realistically I still think the Canucks will win at least one of the next five games, but I wouldn’t mind seeing them drop more points than they pick up.

Best Case Scenario: 1-3-1

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• Brock Boeser, Curtis Lazar placed on injury reserve
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Worst Case Scenario

Having confessed that I would prefer the Canucks to miss the playoffs, you can probably guess that I would see a winning streak as the worst case scenario here. And your guess is correct. The Canucks may have trouble with the Blackhawks, but you can be sure they will play with emotion against the Bruins. Calgary is not an easy win. In many ways they show the consistent work ethic the Canucks have seemed to lack at times. But if the Canucks can get some momentum, maybe by losing to Chicago in overtime then beating Boston at home, they can probably put together wins against Calgary and Minnesota. The Rangers game is a toss-up, but I could see them losing in overtime.

Worst Case Scenario: 3-0-2

Most Likely Scenario

The fact is that, despite my best (or worst) wishes, the Canucks will make the playoffs. If they get 30 more points out of their next 30 games, they will have a 71% chance of making the playoffs. They may not be playing consistent hockey, but they are too talented a team to slip below .500 the rest of the way. Tanev and Corrado should return and add to their defensive strength. Vrbata will continue to score goals. And hopefully Zack Kassian can figure out his game and contribute from the third line. I really hope that. For him. For all of us.

The most likely scenario, as far as the next five games go, is something close to .500 hockey. The wild card here is goal scoring. If players like Bonino, Burrows and Higgins (i.e. the entire second line) can start to contribute more consistently, the Canucks might find themselves heating up down the stretch. But I think that will take a little time, so I’m predicting the Canucks hover around .500 for the next five games.

Most Likely Scenario: 2-2-1

Least Likely Scenario

The penalty box camera caught Zack Kassian staring at his hands on Saturday night. Here’s what really happened.

It was a rainy Friday night in Vancouver, and Zack Kassian was out running some errands around town. He had stopped at the Whole Foods on the corner of Cambie and Broadway, because they have that fantastic cookie bar. Zack stepped up to the window and took a look at all the options. Suddenly he looked up to see a woman staring at him from behind the counter. Her bright blue eyes seemed to be looking right past him, or perhaps right through him, as her long blonde hair flowed in the wind. “Where did the wind come from?” he asked himself. His eyes were locked with hers for what seemed like eternity when suddenly she held out a long, frail arm. Her hand was holding the oddest cookie he had ever seen. It was shaped like a human hand, but it seemed to be made of a substance he had never really seen before. “It’s oatmeal,” she said.

“What do I do with this?” Kassian asked. “You eat it,” she replied, a little wearily. “I have seen your struggles, Zackary Kassian, and I have baked this cookie to restore the power of your hands” Kassian took the cookie, a little unsure of what to do next. “Eat it,” she whispered, when suddenly, poof! She disappeared in a cloud of white smoke. Kassian looked around, wondering if anyone had noticed this bizarre incident. But no one looked back at him. He was alone, lost in a sea of hipsters, as one often is at Whole Foods. He quickly ate the cookie, too embarrassed to take it to the check out line. He expected to feel something, perhaps some tingling or a spark of some kind, but he felt nothing. He went home disappointed.

The next day Kassian found himself involved in a spirited game against the Penguins. It was his first chance to get out of the press box in quite a while, and he was relishing it. Near the end of the first period, he found himself in a fight with the Penguins’ Robert Bortuzzo. After resolving that little dust-up, Kassian took his seat in the penalty box. Suddenly he heard a woman’s voice whisper, “It’s time.” Kassian looked around to see where it came from. There was only the balding male time keeper beside him. Again he heard, “it’s time.” He felt a strange quiver in his hands. He stared at them. They felt like they were going to fly off his arms. He looked them over, wondering what to do. But before he could decide, his penalty was over and he was back on the ice. The next thing he knew he was at the receiving end of a beautiful pass from Linden Vey, tapping the puck into an empty net. “That’s odd,” he thought, “I haven’t done that in a while.”

But then the oddest thing happens on Monday night: he scores again! “Wow, the cookie really works,” Kassian says to himself. Unfortunately he has a terrible game in Chicago, taking a couple of bad penalties and coughing up the puck for a Blackhawks goal. When the Canucks return home, Kassian is informed he will be a healthy scratch against Boston. “I need another cookie,” he reasons, “the one she gave me must have worn off.” He literally runs to Whole Foods, but he cannot find the mysterious woman anywhere. He returns home, dejected. He opens the door of his apartment and sees the woman standing in his kitchen. “How did you get in here?” he asks. “I’m a level 7 vegan,” she replies, “Time and space are meaningless to me.” Kassian simply stares in confusion. “I’ve come to tell you something,” she says, “it wasn’t the cookie that gave you the power to score. The power was in you all along. I must go now, and you will never see me again.” With that she disappears, taking all of Kassian’s recently purchased eggplants with her.

Kassian goes to Willie Desjardins’ office the next morning, desperate to convince Willie to let him play. But when he enters, he receives some bad news. “You’ve been traded, Zack, I’m sorry. It just wasn’t working out for you here.” Zack Kassian walks out of the building a broken man, swearing to himself that he’ll never become a vegan.