There are two things that are currently being discussed to no end in Canuck land.
1. Should the team rebuild?
2. What will Quinn Hughes’ next contract look like?
In exploring the latter, it is difficult to predict if Hughes will in fact remain with the Canucks, as he will soon earn his right to be an unrestricted free agent, and only he knows what his intentions and desires are. The question then becomes what a player like Hughes could command with respect to a new contract based on his abilities, performance and comparable contracts.
The salary cap
In assessing the going market rate for players of Hughes’ calibre, we are seeing a shift in average annual value for star players, mainly due to the fact that the salary cap is about to incur a steep increase.
The current salary cap ceiling in the NHL is $95.5 million, but this is where we get into uncharted territory. It is projected to jump to $104 million next season, and $113.5 million the season after that, which including the jump from $88 million to $95.5 million this season, will be the three biggest cap increases of all time, all three of which occurring in succession.
For reference, these three consecutive cap jumps average out to an $8.5 million increase per season, and prior to this the biggest jumps came in at $6.4 million entering the 2008-2009 season and $4.7 million entering the 2014-2015 season, so it is plainly obvious to see that there will be some significant pay increases on tap.
Comparables
Given these salary cap developments, there are many players who are looking to capitalize on this opportunity to see a significant jump in their pay. This was evident in the Kirill Kaprizov contract extension, as Kaprizov secured a new contract just prior to the start of the season with an average annual value of $17 million, by far the biggest in NHL history as the runner up to that is Leon Draisaitl, who resigned with the Edmonton Oilers a year before at an average annual value of $14 million.
There are currently many star players making in the neighbourhood of $12 million, but most of those contracts were signed during a time of relatively flat cap growth due to pandemic impacts, say for a few. A caveat of this fact is that all of the players in this salary range are forwards, as the highest paid defenceman in the NHL based on average annual value is currently Erik Karlsson at $11.5 million, and there are currently only four defenceman in the NHL making over $10 million annually.
What this means for Quinn Hughes
I think there is no debate that the two best defenceman in the NHL right now are Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. They are currently first and third in points amongst defenceman, they were first and third in points amongst defenceman last season - Hughes in just 68 games, and they were first and second in points amongst defenceman two seasons ago.
Points aside, they each play significant roles for their teams, as Hughes is averaging the most ice time per game in the NHL this season, with Makar in fourth, and when it comes to skating ability there is a very small list as to who can move their feet, twist, turn and cut even close to the level of these two, and if you don’t believe me, see below for Quinn Hughes.
Hughes also clocked the fastest skating speed by a defenceman since the NHL starting tracking it at 24.56 mph, as seen below.
Makar and Hughes will continue to be synonymously compared, they are both eligible to become unrestricted free agents after next season, they make similar amounts of money as of now, $9 million for Makar, $7.85 million for Hughes, their individual performance resumes are relatively comparable, and they are similar in age as Makar is just one year older than Hughes.
With that being said, the two star defenceman differ in a few ways. Most notably, Makar plays alongside a star studded cast featuring the likes of current NHL points leader and MVP favourite Nathan MacKinnon, on an Avalanche team that currently leads the NHL in goals.
On the other hand, Hughes is surrounded by less talent in Vancouver, much to do with the departures of J.T. Miller and Bo Horvat in recent seasons, and also has to deal with the pressures of being the captain in an extremely hungry and unforgiving hockey market.
Captaincy aside, Hughes is much more important to the Canucks than Makar is to the Avalanche, as he is relied upon much more to carry the puck in all zones, transition from defence to offence with the puck on his stick, use his elite skating and edge work to create openings for himself as well as his teammates, and overall relied upon much more as the primary option to drive offence, as he has had points on approximately 35% of the Canucks goals over the course of the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons.
In addition, the presence of Hughes on the ice for the Canucks forces opponents to game plan around stopping him which opens up ice for his teammates, whereas in Colorado other teams must focus their attention on players like Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Nečas, and quite frankly I think it would be interesting to see what the numbers and gameplay would look like if Makar and Hughes were to swap teams.
The contract
Would it be crazy to suggest that Hughes will double his current salary and make $16 million plus annually? Sure, it is a steep jump from highest paid defenceman Erik Karlsson's $11.5 million, but considering that $16 million will be just 14% of the projected salary cap in 2027-2028, that actually sounds like a reasonable deal.
Ultimately, I think there are a few key factors to address when coming up with a potential figure. The first being the upcoming free agent classes. Many of the best free agents have already resigned with their teams, such as Jack Eichel at $13.5 million, Kyle Connor at $12 million, Martin Nečas at $11.5 million, Adrian Kempe at $10.625 million and Connor McDavid at a modest $12.5 million, but on a short term team friendly contract.
With these key players off the board, and the following offseason not featuring many top tier prime age free agents, I think Hughes has tremendous leverage as he will be entering just his age 28 season upon signing his new contract, and equally as important, will be doing so as a top two overall player at a premium position, representing a truly unique situation.
The second key factor, and more importantly, will be what Hughes himself desires. If money is what he wants, he will easily be able to command $16 million or more. If his priority is team and fit maybe he takes $14 million. Nobody can answer what Hughes' priority is except Hughes himself.
Final thoughts
Given the skills, play driving, contributions and overall team importance that Hughes delivers, I would say that it is not a stretch by any means for a player of this calibre, at this position, in this situation and cap environment to be making $16 million or more. I think if Hughes’ motivation is money, a team would definitely be wiling to pay him in the neighbourhood of $18 million per season, but we will soon find out what is most important to the Captain of the Canucks.