Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko made his highly anticipated return to the ice on Dec. 10, making 21 saves on 25 shots in a 4-3 overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues. The only question mark, which is perhaps not really much of a surprise to anyone, is that Demko did not look like the All-Star Demko the Canucks had last year.
When you are dealing with a chronic injury to a body part that is key to the function of the goalie position and have not played a competitive game in eight months, rust is to be expected.
In his second game back for the Canucks against Boston on Tuesday night, Demko's performance level remained virtually exactly the same. The 29-year-old made 23 saves on 28 shots, which means that Demko has allowed nine goals in total on just 53 shots. But how much of this is really Demko's fault, and how much of this is the Canucks playing poorly in front of a guy who had not played since April 21?
Canucks leaving Demko out to dry already
The numbers support the idea that Demko is not playing particularly well, but has also done a lot more than expected of him overall. According to Moneypuck, Demko has a low-danger save percentage of .941%, which is three percent lower than the expected low-danger save percentage of .972%. For reference, Kevin Lankinen's expected low-danger save percentage is also .972%, but his actual low-danger save percentage is 0.961%--two percent higher than Demko's.
“You gotta play for your goalie here.”
— Grady Sas (@GradySas) December 15, 2024
– Ray Ferraro on the #Canucks after Demko made a pair of short-handed saves against Brad Marchand.
On the other hand, though, Demko has a high-danger save percentage of .846%, which blows his expected high-danger save percentage of .700% out of the water. Again for comparison, Lankinen's high-danger save percentage is .706% and is expected to be .648%.
Demko's performances for the Canucks since returning have probably been inverse of expectations, where he has allowed some easier goals and stopped a ton of difficult ones. Overall, Demko has allowed 2.6 more goals than expected, which is not a terrible mark, but it adds up quickly.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Canucks have allowed 32 high-danger shot attempts in the two games Demko has started this season, and five of the nine goals Demko has allowed have been high-danger looks. This is really what it comes down to.
It might sound crazy, but if the Canucks want Demko to improve (hint: they need him to now that Lankinen has the flu), they should make his job a little easier so he can focus more on the easy chances and think less about the harder chances.
So, yes, while Demko has not played exceedingly well, the Canucks are asking a lot of him right away. They run the risk of overworking him, especially with Lankinen out right now, and that can and should be concerning for the fans and the team alike.