Keifer Sherwood could be earning a big contract next season, in Vancouver or elsewhere

The young 2025-26 NHL season has been an up-and-down affair for the Vancouver Canucks. The team is marred with injuries to key players, including Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Conor Garland, and Filip Chytil. As a result, the Canucks have had to rely on contributions from other pieces of their roster. 

In the wake of the team’s health issues, the most impressive performance has come from Keifer Sherwood. The 30-year-old winger currently leads Vancouver in goals (9) and goals above expected (4.6). In addition, he has been a physical force on the ice with a team-leading 54 hits, nearly double that of the next highest player, Evander Kane (28). 

Sherwood has appeared to have stepped up his game this year. Fortunately for him, he is in a contract year as he will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. If he can maintain his current level of production, he could earn a considerable raise for his next NHL contract. 

Dave Pagnotta of The Fourth Period recently reported that the Canucks are hesitant to extend Sherwood. If Sherwood keeps up his early-season production, Pagnotta projects him to demand somewhere between $4 and $5 million AAV going forward. That number would roughly triple his current annual salary of $1.5 million.

It seems that GM Patrik Allvin and company might not be comfortable committing that much salary to Sherwood. Waiting out the remainder of the season is a gamble, one that will benefit either Sherwood or the organization in the long run. Fans and the front office appear divided on the issue, but a reasonable argument can be made for both sides.

The argument to extend

A 3 to 4-year contract at $4.5 million a year is a big bump in salary, but it isn’t a crazy number. Considering the team shelled out $5.125 million to sign Evander Kane for this season, that number seems more than fair for Sherwood. The stats for both players last season are relatively similar. Kane had 44 points in 77 games, while Sherwood had 40 in 78. The biggest difference is in penalty minutes as Kane spent 85 minutes in the sin bin compared to just 35 for Sherwood.

Signing Kane was a controversial move for the Canucks, as he has been one of the most polarizing players in the league over his career. He is also four years older than Sherwood. So far this season, Sherwood is proving he can match Kane’s level of production while being more disciplined. 

The question is whether he can maintain this level of play going forward or if this is just an anomaly. He is on pace for 61 points this year, which might sound unlikely given his numbers in past seasons. However, since establishing himself as a full-time NHL player with Nashville two seasons ago, his production has increased year over year. With 27 points in 2023-24 and 40 points in 2024-25, maybe 60 points is the next step in an upward trend?

The argument to not extend

I’m a Sherwood fan, and he has been a treat to watch through 12 games. However, there is not a lot of data to suggest he will continue to play at that level for the entire season, let alone for multiple future seasons. For the majority of his career, Sherwood has bounced between the NHL and the AHL. He played in just 69 NHL games from 2019-2023 before earning a full-time spot with the Nashville Predators two seasons ago. 

Late bloomers in pro hockey aren’t unheard of, but they are indeed rare. Some rare exceptions of players who broke out as stars at an older age are Martin St. Louis and Brad Marchand. St. Louis had his first 70-point season at age 27 after a previous season high of 40. Marchand became a point-per-game player at age 29 after averaging 50 points in his formative years. 

I’m not suggesting Sherwood can or can’t become the next Brad Marchand (please don’t start licking opponents’ faces), but it would certainly be an anomaly. It might be the wisest choice for the Canucks to adopt a “wait and see” approach. If his production regresses to the mean for him by season’s end, they could sign him to a more favorable extension, somewhere in the $2-$3 million a year range. 

If he does manage to take the next step going into 2026 free agency, then Vancouver will face the tough decision of whether signing him at a higher cost fits within the franchise’s future plans. He isn’t the only pending free agent for the team next offseason. Centre Teddy Blueger will be a UFA, and there are two pending RFAs to sort out in Victor Mancini and the newly acquired Lukas Reichel.

Final thoughts

Of course, most of the team discourse will likely continue to surround Quinn Hughes’ future in Vancouver. If Hughes and the Canucks cannot agree on a long-term extension before next season, they may be forced to evaluate the franchise’s future trajectory. There is constant speculation about Quinn’s desire to join his brothers, Jack and Luke, in New Jersey. If Hughes makes it clear he won’t resign in Vancouver, the Canucks will need to make a huge decision on what to do next. 

If Hughes leaves, the Canucks will be staring at a major organizational shift directly in the face. Even with the team's ownership unwilling to commit to a full rebuild, the loss of their top star may force their hand. With several other core pieces locked in to long-term deals in Vancouver (Elias Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk, Hronek) does it make sense to sign Sherwood to an extension? He will be 31 when free agency opens, and accumulating a younger talent pool through the draft or other means would be a sounder strategy.

As for the Canucks and Sherwood, both sides seem comfortable playing the long game for the time being. For now, Vancouver fans have an exciting player to cheer on this season. Keifer Sherwood is a big reason for the team staying afloat with a .500 record despite a long list of injuries. If the Canucks are to make a serious push for the NHL playoffs this year, Sherwood will likely be one of the most impactful contributors on the ice.