The restrictions of a salary cap structure have traditionally forced hockey players to accept less money than market value in order to maintain the team's financial versatility. This has been considered necessary to consistently ice a competitive team. But that philosophy is starting to change.
Leo Carlsson's $18 million average annual value (AAV) will be the highest amount relative to the salary cap (17.3%) ever paid. This will be surpassed next year with Cale Makar's $20.4 million extension, 18.0% of next year's spending limit. Quinn Hughes is seeking compensation similar to Makar's, and superstars like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and Zach Werenski will be eligible to sign extensions with their teams on July 1st, 2027.
With the players' new mindset, it begs the question: in a league with a salary cap, can teams with this much salary committed to one player still win the Stanley Cup?
The ideal proportion of the salary cap to spend on cornerstone players
Stanley Cup-winning teams arguably require four cornerstone players: a legitimate number one centre, a productive, all-situation-playing defenseman, a high-scoring winger, and an above-average goaltender. These individuals are often the highest-earning members. However, the 19 other players' collective salaries have to fit within the remaining salary cap.
Organizations wanting to contend for the championship must figure out how much to spend on cornerstone players. Plus, they also need enough cap space to supplement those key individuals with a quality roster.
To find where this balance lies, we examined the proportion of the salary cap spent on the highest-paid centre, winger, defender, and goaltender for every Stanley Cup-winning team since 2007-08.
Table: Percentage of the salary cap for each Stanley Cup winning team since 2007-08 comprised by the highest paid centre (C), winger (W), defenseman (D), and goaltender (G).
Year | Salary Cap ($, million) | Percentage of the cap spent on C, W, D, and G (%) | Stanley Cup winner |
|---|---|---|---|
2007-2008 | 50.3 | 37.8 | Detroit Red Wings |
2008-2009 | 56.7 | 39.1 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
2009-2010 | 56.8 | 38.6 | Chicago Blackhawks |
2010-2011 | 59.4 | 41.4 | Boston Bruins |
2011-2012 | 64.3 | 30.9 | Los Angeles Kings |
2012-2013 | 60.0 | 35.1 | Chicago Blackhawks |
2013-2014 | 64.3 | 36.2 | Los Angeles Kings |
2014-2015 | 69.0 | 35.4 | Chicago Blackhawks |
2015-2016 | 71.4 | 41.0 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
2016-2017 | 73.0 | 40.1 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
2017-2018 | 75.0 | 38.6 | Washington Capitals |
2018-2019 | 79.5 | 32.5 | St Louis Blues |
2019-2020 | 81.5 | 36.0 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
2020-2021 | 81.5 | 43.4 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
2021-2022 | 81.5 | 35.6 | Colorado Avalanche |
2022-2023 | 82.5 | 37.1 | Las Vegas Knights |
2023-2024 | 83.5 | 44.3 | Florida Panthers |
2024-2025 | 88 | 42.1 | Florida Panthers |
2025-2026 | 95.5 | 29.9 | Carolina Hurricanes |
Over the last 20 years, the average percentage of the cap spent by the Cup winner on their highest-paid centre, winger, defender, and goaltender collectively is 37.6%. The Carolina Hurricanes spent the lowest percentage (29.9%) last season. The Florida Panthers spent the highest percentage (44.3%) in 2023-24.
The standard deviation of this data set, 3.99%, indicates that the findings are highly predictable and stable. In hockey terms, the majority of championship teams spend a similar proportion of their salary cap on those four cornerstone players: 37.6 ± 3.99%, or 33.6% to 41.6% (the "sweet spot").
Three teams that are affected by mega-contracts
Three teams are either already facing or will be facing the predicament of having at least one mega-contract on their payroll.
Minnesota Wild
This season, the salaries of Kirill Kaprisov ($17 million), Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25 million), Quinn Hughes ($7.85 million), and Filip Gustavsson ($6.8 million) total 35.5% of the $104 million salary cap, right around the average of the last 20 Cup winners.
But next season, if the Wild re-sign Hughes, his AAV is estimated at around $19.6 million. In addition, Jesper Wallstedt is a restricted free agent whose earnings next year could surpass Gustavsson's. With these assumed figures, Kaprisov, Hughes, Eriksson Ek, and Wallstedt's salaries would comprise 43.0% of the overall cap, which is outside "the sweet spot".
Only the Lightning in 2020-21 and the Panthers in 2023-24 have won the Cup while spending a higher percentage on cornerstone players. Both of those teams had depth scoring from teammates making less than market value. Outside of Matt Boldy, the Wild do not have these players.
Colorado Avalanche
Makar's record-breaking extension does not start until next season. This season, he earns $9 million. Along with Nathan MacKinnon ($12.604 million), Martin Necas ($11.5 million), and MacKenzie Blackwood ($5.25 million), they make up 36.9% of the salary cap. Much like the Wild, they can remain very competitive at this level.
Next year, however, Makar will be earning $20.4 million, so the cumulative percentage made up by these four players increases to 43.8%. According to this historical data, that proportion will make it challenging to win the Stanley Cup.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks' situation is somewhat unique. They are a team coming out of a rebuild and theoretically should have plenty of cap space. But they were "forced" to pay Carlsson $18 million after matching the offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers. Cutter Gauthier is demanding a massive raise and has already turned down a contract for $13 million. He is reportedly looking for something similar to Carlsson's AAV. For the purpose of this discussion, a salary of $15 million will be assumed.
Factoring in Jackson LaCombe ($9 million) and Lukas Dostal ($6.5 million), these four players total 46.6% of the salary cap. It would be highly improbable for the Ducks to compete for the Stanley Cup with these four players occupying this much of the team's cap allotment.
How long do these mega-contracts handicap the Wild, Avalanche, and Ducks?
Is Dan Riccio from OffTheRoster, correct? Are the Avs not "winning a cup when the Makar deal hits the books in 2027"? He is ignoring the fact that the salary cap is significantly increasing year over year and, therefore, the percentage of the cap drained by these contracts correspondingly decreases.
Sidney Crosby’s $8.7M AAV in 2009 was 15.34% of the salary cap, making it the largest percentage of the cap contract to win a Cup in the cap era. Safe to say the Avs aren’t winning a cup when the Makar deal hits the books in 2027. https://t.co/GeIv2UE082
— Dan Riccio (@danriccio_) August 31, 2026
Table: Percentage of cap spent on highest paid C, W, F, and D over the next 3 years (* represents the year the mega-contract starts)
Team | 2026-27 (Salary Cap $104 million) | 2027-28 (Salary Cap $113.5 million) | 2028-29 (Salary Cap $123 million) |
|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Wild | 35.3% | 43.0%* | 39.7% |
Colorado Avalanche | 36.9% | 43.8%* | 40.5% |
Anaheim Ducks | 46.6%* | 42.7% | 39.4% |
Considering the "sweet spot" of 33.6% to 41.6% of cap space spent on the four cornerstone players, these mega-contracts only affect the team in its first year. In the case of the Ducks, having two very expensive contracts may affect them for two years.
The Edmonton Oilers benefit from McDavid's altruism
Connor McDavid gave up a lot of money when he signed a two-year extension at $12.5 million AAV. He could have easily demanded and received $19.1 million AAV, the maximum allowable at that time.
Table: Percentage of cap spent spent on the highest paid C, W, D, and G
McDavid's salary | 2026-27 | 2027-28 |
|---|---|---|
$12.5 million | 40.8% | 37.3% |
$19.1 million | 47.1% | 43.2% |
Only because he gave the Oilers such a team-friendly contract do the combined salaries for him, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Tristan Jarry fall within the "sweet spot" for the length of his contract. Otherwise, the team would not likely have the cap flexibility to build a Stanley Cup winner.
Buyer beware
The culture of the NHL is changing. The salary cap is growing exponentially faster than ever before, and the players are capitalizing.
But teams still require the cap versatility to round out their rosters and compete for the Stanley Cup. Whether the team's strategy is to be top-heavy, rely on depth scoring, or have productive players on value contracts, the data is clear. Based on the last 20 years, for an NHL team to win the Stanley Cup, the cumulative amount spent on the highest-paid centre, winger, defenseman, and goaltender is best kept between 33.6% and 41.6%.
As long as the salary cap continues to grow, a maximum (or near-maximum) contract might affect the team's ability to win the Stanley Cup for only its first year. However, if a team has more than one mega-contract, if the growth of the cap lessens for any reason, or if owners enforce an internal payroll budget that is less than the upper limit of the cap, these contracts could handicap the team for much longer.
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