As the Canucks continue to teeter on the edge, it is entirely possible that the fall off could happen sooner than later. The NHL standings are currently very close in both conferences, as the league is continuing to experience more and more parity each season, but as with every season there are contenders and pretenders.
On the surface the Canucks are in the thick of the playoff race, as they are just four points out of the final wild card spot. But as you begin to look deeper at the numbers under the hood, there are some glaring problems the need to be addressed and improved upon if this team hopes to attain an upward trajectory.
For starters, the Canucks have the sixth worst goal differential in the NHL at -10. As of now that is not overly significant, nor a big gap to overcome. But when you look at metrics such as xGoals %, Corsi, expected goals against, expected goal differential, goals differential above expected, shots on goal against, high danger shots against, medium danger shots against and penalty kill %, it is clear and evident that this team is holding on by the skin of their teeth and having more success than they should be.
The metrics
Per Money Puck, here are the Canucks overall rankings in the following categories.
xGoals %: 32/32
Corsi: 31/32
Expected goals against: 32/32
Expected goal differential: 32/32
Goals differential above expected: 3/32
Shots on goal against: 32/32
High danger shots against: 32/32
Medium danger shots against: 32/32
Penalty kill %: 32/32
As you can see, the only category here that the Canucks are succeeding in is goal differential above expected, and they are doing so with a negative goal differential. Aside from that disaster, they are the worst team in the NHL in every category listed above besides Corsi, where they hold a slim margin over the San Jose Sharks.
And if being at the bottom isn’t enough, they are seemingly creating a new tier for themselves in the basement, as they are behind by large margins from the second worst teams in expected goals against and expected goal differential, two very telling and significant categories.
So what is the problem with the Canucks?
In a nutshell, the Canucks problem appears to be their inability to adequately control play and drive and sustain offence, which is forcing them to have to defend in their own zone, chase the puck around, and deal with flurries of opposing scoring attempts.
Something that initially jumps off of the page is the pairing of Tyler Myers and Marcus Pettersson, who are the Canucks best shut down pairing. In terms of on ice frequency for the team, the two have been paired up the second most on the back end this year at 17.2% in all situations, and are both averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per game.
The thing that stands out the most with this pairing, is that unlike prior seasons of their careers they are being heavily outshot while on the ice, as Myers currently ranks 643rd and Pettersson 661st in the NHL in Corsi% in all situations amongst players with at least 50 minutes of ice time.
I think a huge catalyst in this has been their jump in defensive zone starts compared to their career norms, as they are both starting play in the defensive zone 75% of the time in all situations and at 67-68% at even strength. One could say that these two have become sitting ducks as a result of this, as the Canucks currently have the fourth worst face-off percentage in the NHL at 46%, and are often starting play chasing the puck and giving up mass barrages of shot attempts against.
Fixing these issues
I believe the thing that underscores all of this is the Canucks glaring need for a top-tier middle of the ice presence, not only to win face-offs, but more importantly to carry the puck up the ice and drive and sustain quality offensive play. This will allow them to keep the puck out of their defensive zone more, begin more set pieces in neutral or offensive territory, and allow them to spend less time chasing the puck around in their own zone while also giving up less scoring chances.
Aside from the Myers and Pettersson pairing, the Hughes and Hronek pairing supports this notion, as they are also beginning more of their shifts in the defensive zone this season, while also seeing a drop off in chances for while on the ice. The bottom line is that centre is the most important position on the ice and the Canucks are likely the weakest team at this position in the entire league, and it is forcing an enormous amount of pressure on their defence.
Conclusion
Ultimately, this is the NHL, and if you consistently give other teams quality scoring opportunities while being unable to match up against the other teams best centres, which are also typically the oppositions best players, you are asking for trouble. The Canucks need to subscribe to the fact that in this case, a good sustainable offence will lead to a better defence.