What could Bo Horvat’s next contract look like?

The Vancouver Canucks are going to have a busy offseason.

One of the things they have to do is decide if they want to extend J.T. Miller. His contract expires after next season and he is going to want a big raise.

There is someone else who needs a new contract in 2023 and that is team captain Bo Horvat. He currently has a cap hit of 5.5 million dollars and like Miller, he is going to want big raise. But it won’t be as big as Miller’s.

While Horvat has not become the two-way centre he was touted to be when he came into the league, he has developed into a very good offensive player and is solid on faceoffs. This past season, Horvat set a new career-high in goals with 31 and managed 21 assists for 52 points in 70 games. Throughout his career, Horvat has established himself as a guy who can put up at least 20 goals and put up around 50 points.

EvolvingHockey.Com projects Miller’s contract at 10 million for eight years while they have Horvat at seven million for eight years.

“I really like Bo,” said Canucks President of Hockey Operations Jim Rutherford on CHEK TV’s Donnie and Dhali: The Team on May 27. “I’ve always liked him back to his junior hockey days. There has been good discussions with him after the season. He had a good year this year, 30-some goals. He’s got a lot of good hockey left in him. He’s a character guy. He’s a centre that’s hard to find. We believe he should be part of our team going forward. ”

While Miller’s future as a Canuck is unclear, judging by Rutherford’s comments, Horvat is most likely to re-sign.

Some Horvat contract comparables and prediction

Let’s take a look at some comparables for Horvat’s next contract. The three I have chosen are Brayden Schenn and Ryan O’Reilly of the St. Louis Blues, and Kevin Hayes and the Philadelphia Flyers. These players are in the 6.5 to 7.5 million dollar range and I think Horvat will likely be around there.

When negotiating contracts, one of the things agents use is the points per game rate of their clients. Over the last three seasons, Horvat managed 141 points in 195 games. That is points per game rate of 0.72. (59-point pace in an 82-game season.)

How about the points per game rates of Schenn, O’Reilly and Hayes in the three years before their current deals kicked in? Schenn’s PPG rate was 0.80 (65-point pace) before his eight-year deal with a 6.5 million dollar cap hit started in 2020-21. (Schenn signed his deal in the fall of 2019.) O’Reilly’s was at 0.76 (62-point pace) before inking a seven-year contract worth 7.5 million per season. Hayes’ was at 0.66. (54-point pace) before he signed a seven-year contract worth 7.14 million per season.

As you can see, the PPG rates are similar. (Hopefully, my math is correct because my Samsung Phone’s calculator kept glitching plus I calculated these a dozen times. I’m not good at math.) O’Reilly and Schenn have been better offensively and defensively than Horvat the last few seasons while Horvat has produced more points than Hayes and has been probably been better defensively.

If I had to predict Horvat’s next contract it would be an AAV of 7.2 million dollars for seven years. After a 31-goal season, he definitely is going to want that kind of money. At the age of 27, he is in his prime years and there are at least two or three good years left in him. Plus, there is the possibility he could get even better.

However, a seven-year deal will take him to 2030 and he will be 35-years-old that year. As we all know, players tend to decline in their 30s so there is some risk in giving Horvat that amount of term and money.

Nonetheless, I just have the gut feeling the Canucks are willing to sign Horvat long-term for at least seven million dollars.