Canucks: How do they compare to the Seattle Kraken?
THE DEFENSE
Here is what the Kraken defense group looks like:
Mark Giordano – Adam Larsson
Jamie Oleksiak – Vince Dunn
Carson Soucy – Haydn Fleury
Jeremy Lauzon
For those confused about Seattle's nice rating... I'm not surprised.
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 29, 2021
A big reason for it is that their blue line is projected to be the best in the league defensively. (Also worst in the league offensively, but who's counting) pic.twitter.com/IR0J2KzVj4
Similarly to their forwards, the Kraken boast a deep defensive core, but potentially lacking in offense. The difference from the forwards though, is they plucked these players out of top-four roles on their previous teams, so they should all be comfortable taking on lots of minutes.
For the defence groups we will be looking at possession metric data from Hockey Reference for oZS% (offensive zone start percent) versus dZS% (defensive zone start percent) as well as C/60 (corsi-for minus corsi-against per 60 minutes). These will be based on all-situations on the ice.
In the 2020-21 season these defenceman put up a combined average 42.22 oZS%, meaning they only started in the offensive zone about 42% of the time on their respective former teams. This seems like a low number, but if we take in to account what Haydn Fleury’s season looked liked, his oZS% was 53.9% for the Carolina Hurricanes and only 33.3% for the Anaheim Ducks.
Further to that point, Adam Larsson had his second career-lowest oZS% this past season, with only 29.8% of his starts being in the offensive zone. His career average is 38.5%, so look for the Seattle coaching staff to correct that.
On the opposite side, we have the new Kraken defence seeing 57.77 dZS%, meaning the players started a lot in their own end. As was pointed out above, players like Fleury and Larsson were deployed a little differently than normal and so we should see that change in the coming season.
Adam Larsson, signed 4x$4M by SEA, is a second-pair defensive defenceman who finally put up the types of elite defensive results that the Oilers originally acquired him for this past season. #SeaKraken pic.twitter.com/qNFPWhhJD7
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 21, 2021
On to corsi per 60 minutes, which measures an individual player’s shot attempts for that hit the net, were blocked or missed the net as well as shot attempts against that hit the net, were blocked or missed the net. You then subtract the “for” metric from the “against” to get C/60.
With all of that in mind, the Kraken defense had a combined average -4.84 C/60, which essentially demonstrates that leaning too much on players for defensive assignments, like what some of these blueliner’s former teams did, is not a sound strategy for success.
Now for the Canucks, this is where things start to get interesting, here is what the Canucks defense group looks like:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Tyler Myers
Quinn Hughes (RFA) – Travis Hamonic
Olli Juolevi – Tucker Poolman
Luke Schenn
The Canucks made some changes to their blueline also this Summer, with the acquisition of Ekman-Larsson and UFA signings Poolman and Hunt.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, acquired by VAN, is on arguably the worst contract in the entire league. He has been absolutely terrible for the past three seasons and is getting paid like a #1 for the next six seasons. #Canucks pic.twitter.com/4nmwFV0a8t
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 23, 2021
Looking at the Canucks possession metrics, I included defenceman that played 20 or more games, so Jack Rathbone was not included even though there is a good chance he makes the team.
These players ended the season with a combined average 48.42 oZS%, which is actually quite skewed because Quinn Hughes is the only one out of the pack to be over 51% with a 69.8 oZS%. Without the dynamic offensive defenceman, that number is much lower.
It should also be taken in to account, as said above, that Rathbone was not included due to playing under 20 games, but his small sample size of games brought him to 53 oZS%, which would definitely help the team in that regard.
Looking now at dZS%, the players combined for an unsurprisingly low average 50.6 dZS%, once again due to Hughes’ one-sided deployment.
The Canucks coaching staff would be smart to spread around the defensive responsibility as much as possible in order to avoid overworking one or two defenders, as they did with Alex Edler and Nate Schmidt previously.
Moving on to C/60, we have the Canucks coming below the Kraken at -6.04, which tells us the blueliners spent more time in the defensive zone without the puck. Not ideal in the game of hockey to not have the puck.
Here is a breakdown of the numbers, with outside comparisons for context:
Kraken current D: 42.22 oZS% 57.77 dZS% -4.84 C/60
Canucks current D: 48.2 oZS% 51.45 dZS% -6.04 C/60
Canucks 20-21: 42.84 oZS% 57.15 dZS% -12.04 C/60
Lightning 20-21: 52.18 oZS% 47.82 dZS% 0.471 C/60
The development from this data quite clearly displays that the Canucks have potentially improved their backend in possession metrics, but are still well behind one of the league’s powerhouses in Tampa Bay.
As for the Kraken, since the bulk of their defenseman were tasked on the defensive side of the puck more often than their counterparts, it is expected we see some sort of an improvement in possession numbers. The backend will most likely get the opportunity to play much more on the offensive side of the puck.
THE GOALIES
The Kraken duo:
Philipp Grubauer – Chris Driedger
The Canucks duo:
Thatcher Demko – Jaroslav Halak
We will start with the Kraken where Philipp Grubauer started in a career-high 39 games for the Colorado Avalanche the past three seasons and Chris Driedger who split the starts with Sergei Bobvrovsky, starting in 23 games.
Grubauer is the easy pick to be the starter for Seattle as the veteran netminder going in to the 21-22 season. He will be 30 in November and just came off a career season with 39 wins, seven shutouts, a 1.95 GAA, all career-highs, and also a .922 SV%.
Before Grubauer was signed, the Kraken picked Driedger in the expansion draft from the Florida Panthers. The expectation at the time, was that he would be the starter going forward, but of course they had other plans.
Driedger is an interesting case because he only played in his second NHL season where he actually started a game. Still, this was a breakout season for the 27 year-old who had 14 wins in 23 starts for the Panthers with a 2.07 GAA and .927 SV%, which surprisingly are not career-highs.
For the Canucks, they have their long-term solution in goal with Demko who was signed to a 5-year $5 million deal in March. To put it simply, he is their guy and barring any injuries he will be starting a majority of the games.
Thatcher Demko currently ranks 3rd in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected.
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) March 31, 2021
As far as goalie contracts go, you could do a lot worse #Canucks https://t.co/7qJouySUk3
The 2nd round pick in 2014 will be 26 in December during his fourth season where he started in more than one game. The 20-21 season was somewhat of a breakout season for Thatcher Demko as he was able to prove that the previous summer playoffs were not a fluke. He provided stability in net for a struggling Vancouver team, even with the Vezina-calibre Jacob Markstrom departing in free-agency.
In 35 starts the Canucks netminder maintained a .915 SV%, 2.85 GAA for 16 wins, not the results the team wanted, but of course a goalie can only do so much. Just remember the possession numbers provided above for the team’s 20-21 defence.
New Canuck netminder Jaroslav Halak has enjoyed a quiet but successful career as a backup for five NHL teams. Last season, his third with the Boston Bruins organization, he started in 17 games, his lowest since 2012-13, with nine wins, 2.53 GAA and .905 SV%.
The drop in playing time and numbers could be a possible down season for Halak and he could bounce back for the Canucks, but he is also 36 years-old and was the backup for the cup-contending Boston Bruins. This could be the start of a regression for the two-time Jennings trophy winner.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Canucks have the top-end talent that the Kraken just don’t have yet, aside from the goaltending where the Canucks have Demko who is still improving and an aging backup in Halak.
The Kraken have an elite goalie in Grubauer and starter quality in Driedger, where the Kraken slightly edge the Canucks.
On defence, the Canucks again, have Hughes and potentially a re-energized Ekman-Larsson, but after that it’s average to below-average defending. This is where the Kraken really come out ahead because any one of their top-six defenceman could play in the Canucks top-four and compared to their previous seasons, there is potential for offensive growth. We likely won’t see that from the Canucks defence as a whole.
Next. Canucks: What to expect from Vasili Podkolzin’s rookie year. dark
The forward groups are again close, but with the lack of top-end talent on Seattle, the Canucks narrowly beat them out as long as their top-nine can stay relatively healthy.