2017: Elias Pettersson (5th overall) – A+
There wasn’t supposed to be a superstar in the 2017 NHL draft.
Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were the top two ranked prospects, but neither was being projected as a top-line forward. The only player out of the 2017 draft who received any Calder Trophy votes the following season was Hischier, who finished seventh in voting after being selected first overall by the New Jersey Devils.
It was not until the 2018-19 season that a true superstar emerged from the 2017 draft class, and that star was Elias Pettersson.
Pettersson burst onto the NHL scene that year, scoring ten goals in his first ten games, while finishing the season with 66 points in 71 games. He would eventually go on to win the Calder Trophy by a landslide, and carried that momentum with him into his second season, matching his previous regular-season points total with 66, while also notching 18 points in 17 playoff games during the bubble. His 2020-21 season was marred by injuries, but he still managed 21 points in 26 games.
So, how did (arguably) the best player from the 2017 draft slip down to fifth overall?
Well, there were many who believed that, both prior to and proceeding the draft, Vancouver had better options at fifth overall. The pre-draft rankings had Pettersson as the number-two ranked European skater, behind Klim Kostin. Kostin, if you’re wondering, only has six NHL games to his name. Bob McKenzie’s final rankings had both Gabriel Vilardi and Casey Mittelstadt over Pettersson. A strong case could be made, at the time, for Vancouver to use the fifth pick on either of those players, or on Cody Glass, who was selected right after Pettersson by the Vegas Golden Knights. The uncertainty surrounding Pettersson was largely due to the fact that he spent his draft year playing in the second tier of the Swedish Hockey League, rather than their top pro league.
Sufficient to say, the Canucks saw the potential and decided to nab their eventual franchise centre a few stops higher than most expected him to be drafted.
That’s more of an A+ pick than any.
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2016: Olli Juolevi (5th overall) – C-
Hindsight makes everyone an expert. But, even at the time, the Olli Juolevi selection seemed like it was destined to be a mistake.
After a handful of injuries in the AHL, Juolevi has finally overcome his health issues to play in the NHL this past season, and he didn’t look bad in the 23 games that he played. Already 23 years of age, however, Juolevi is likely approaching his last chance to become a mainstay NHL defenceman in Vancouver, given his injury history, as well as the plethora of left-handed blueliners available on the Canucks’ roster.
For a fifth-overall pick, that’s definitely not a good look.
Comparing Juolevi’s career to many of those drafted after him, such as as Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev and Charlie McAvoy, further enforces how poor of a selection he was. Vancouver wasn’t the only team to miss out on stars, however, as Alex DeBrincat and Samuel Girard were selected in the second round, and 2021 Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox fell all the way to the third round.
The real error made by the Canucks in this draft was to make decisions based on positional needs, rather than selecting the best player available. Prior to 2016, Vancouver hadn’t selected a defenceman in the first round since Luc Bourdon back in 2005, meaning the Canucks had opted to go with a forward prospect for their eight previous first-round picks. Kevin Bieksa had also left the team during the 2015 offseason, while Dan Hamhuis was set to enter unrestricted free agency. Rather than taking Tkachuk, who was ranked second among North American skaters, the Canucks opted for who they believed to be the best defenceman available.
In the defence of the Juolevi selection, the Canucks weren’t the only ones who saw Juolevi as the best defenceman in the draft. McKenzie’s final pre-draft ranking had Juolevi sitting at sixth overall, albeit behind Tkachuk, but ahead of any other defenceman available. The only blueliner ranked ahead of Juolevi in the official pre-draft rankings was Jakob Chychrun, who would eventually fall all the way to 16th overall.
Juolevi was also coming off a World Junior Championships in which he, as an under-aged player, was Finland’s best defenceman en route to the 2016 Gold Medal. Juolevi picked up nine assists in seven games, and showed signs of both gifted offence and strong, steady defence.
Of course, this might be a different story had Juolevi not suffered so many injuries early on in his career. But, even at the time, whether Juolevi was the best defenceman available or not, it was clear that he wasn’t the best player available, which is why his grade is what it is.