Canucks: Grading the top-10 picks over the last 10 years

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The dust has (seemingly) finally settled on two wild weeks in the NHL and for the Vancouver Canucks. For most fans, there is likely one specific thing that they haven’t been able to get out of their heads.

How good is Dylan Guenther?

The 2021 NHL draft class has been shrouded in uncertainty due to the wildly varying circumstances of the 2020-21 season. Leading up to the draft, the Canucks were in a very interesting position at ninth overall, given how many talented players could’ve been available to them at that position.

One name that brought quite a bit of intrigue was Guenther.

Despite his developing transition game out of the neutral zone, the 18-year-old winger still managed to score 12 goals and 24 points in just 12 WHL games this past season with the Edmonton Oil Kings, proving that he was one of, if not the most, dangerous scorers in the draft.

As we all know, Guenther eventually fell to the Arizona Coyotes at ninth overall, a pick they acquired from the Canucks in a blockbuster draft day deal that saw Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson get shipped out to Vancouver in return.

We’re not here to provide a full breakdown on the trade made by Vancouver, nor should we focus on how Garland and Ekman-Larsson could impact the team next year. As of right now, there’s no denying that both players are immediate improvements to the roster for next season, and we’ll have to wait until October to see how much they can actually benefit Vancouver.

The biggest question mark, of course, should be Vancouver’s former 2021 first-round pick, and what could’ve been if the Canucks had held onto it.

Could Guenther become an elite goal-scorer in this league? Does he have the offensive prowess to rewrite Arizona’s losing history? Would the Canucks have also taken him at ninth overall had the draft board turned out the way it did a few weeks back?

These questions have been burning a hole in this writer’s head as of late, especially given Guenther’s dynamic offensive prowess and natural point-producing ability but, as it goes with all NHL drafts, we’ll never know what could’ve been.

What we can do, however, is take a step back and see how Vancouver has utilized their top-ten picks, the ones that they actually held onto, over the last ten years, and how those selections have shaped and contributed to the franchise so far.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at each player on the list, and their deserved grade.

2019: Vasili Podkolzin (10th overall) – A

Grading a draft pick used on a player who has yet to play an NHL game, and was only drafted two years ago, is probably not a very fruitful exercise, but here we are.

Vasily Podkolzin has had a challenging two seasons in the KHL.

He was deployed largely as a bottom-six forward under SKA St. Petersburg coach Valeri Bragin, and his statistics showed as such. In 75 career regular season games, Podkolzin scored seven goals and 12 assists for 19 points. His playoff output has been better, with seven goals and 14 points in just 20 games. However, Podkolzin’s full impact isn’t necessarily evident on the stat sheet, as his effectiveness often lies in his playmaking abilities, as well as in his two-way game.

Given those strengths, the 20-year-old winger, who signed his entry-level deal earlier this offseason, is expected to feature in Vancouver’s opening-day lineup at the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign.

At the beginning of his draft year, Podkolzin was touted as a potential top-three pick. A few reasons later, including the fact that he ended up signing a professional contract in Russia, and his position gradually began to fall as the year went on. Vancouver eventually found themselves selecting Podkolzin at tenth overall.

The Canucks had a plethora of talented forwards to choose from at that position, including Cole Caufield and Alex Newhook, but decided to take a chance on the Russian. So far, there is nothing to say that Podkolzin won’t shine when given the chance next season and, given that rationale, receives an ‘A’.

As stated, Podkolzin looks like a talented prospect with a high NHL ceiling. The only case that can be made against the Podkolzin pick is the immediate success that Caufield has had since being drafted. Caufield was another explosive, highly-talented winger who slid down the first round rankings of the 2019 draft, eventually being picked by Montreal at 15th overall.

Upon completion of the USA Hockey National Development Program, Caufield went on to score 49 goals and 88 points in 77 games over two seasons at the University of Wisconsin. Caufield joined the Canadiens at the end of the 2020-21 season and performed incredibly well during Montreal’s improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final.

With all that being said, measuring Podkolzin up against someone who might eventually be considered the best player to come out of the 2019 draft isn’t fair. The Russian winger is yet to have his chance, and we will have to wait until after he is given his opportunity to truly evaluate the high rating.

2018: Quinn Hughes (7th overall) – A+

Two things are blatantly obvious to anyone who has watched the Canucks and, more specifically, Quinn Hughes over the last two seasons. First? He’s immensely talented. During the 2020 NHL All-Star Game, legend Wayne Gretzky said that Hughes had “better hands than I had”, and Hughes’ incredible offensive output since his NHL debut has shown.

Wayne Gretzky mic'd up reacts to the All-Star goal by Quinn Hughes pic.twitter.com/3qX2xUukCx
— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) January 26, 2020

Second? His defensive game also took a huge step back during this past season in Vancouver.

You can blame Hughes’ decline on a number of things; a sophomore slump, a challenging year for the team overall, or the loss of his rookie season defence partner in Chris Tanev. No matter the reason, we’ve seen better of Hughes than what was on display during the 2020-21 season, and that better, electrifying version, the version of Hughes that we know he can be, is what’s being kept in mind while grading this pick.

Hughes was taken seventh overall by Vancouver back in 2018. During his first full rookie season, the left-handed blueliner scored 53 points in 68 games and 16 points in 17 playoff games, while also finishing second in Calder Trophy voting for the league’s best rookie.

Since the end of the 2018-19 season, Hughes has amassed 97 points in 129 regular season games. Only four players from the 2018 draft class have played more games than Hughes, while only three (Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk and Rasmus Dahlin) have scored more points. What’s even more impressive is that those trio of youngsters all have an extra year of NHL experience compared to Hughes, ranking his 0.75 points-per-game rate first amongst any other player in his draft who has played at least three NHL games.

Defensive liability or not, his offensive talent and production are enough to suggest that he should easily be considered one of the best players to come out of his draft year.

Hughes wasn’t exactly a no-brainer pick at seventh overall, either. At the time, he was ranked below both Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson in the pre-draft rankings, with many insiders and scout experts also expecting Swedish defenceman Adam Boqvist to be off the board before Hughes. Up to now, Hughes has proved the Canucks right in their selection of him, far surpassing any player drafted below him.

Vancouver will hope that Hughes can write off a difficult last season as a sophomore slump and return to the form that saw him finish a respectable 15th overall in Norris Trophy voting for the 2019-20 campaign.

VANCOUVER, BC – FEBRUARY 19: Elias Pettersson #40 of the Vancouver Canucks shoots the puck during the pre-game warmup prior to NHL hockey action against the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Arena on February 19, 2021 in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images) /

2017: Elias Pettersson (5th overall) – A+

There wasn’t supposed to be a superstar in the 2017 NHL draft.

Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were the top two ranked prospects, but neither was being projected as a top-line forward. The only player out of the 2017 draft who received any Calder Trophy votes the following season was Hischier, who finished seventh in voting after being selected first overall by the New Jersey Devils.

It was not until the 2018-19 season that a true superstar emerged from the 2017 draft class, and that star was Elias Pettersson.

Pettersson burst onto the NHL scene that year, scoring ten goals in his first ten games, while finishing the season with 66 points in 71 games. He would eventually go on to win the Calder Trophy by a landslide, and carried that momentum with him into his second season, matching his previous regular-season points total with 66, while also notching 18 points in 17 playoff games during the bubble. His 2020-21 season was marred by injuries, but he still managed 21 points in 26 games.

So, how did (arguably) the best player from the 2017 draft slip down to fifth overall?

Well, there were many who believed that, both prior to and proceeding the draft, Vancouver had better options at fifth overall. The pre-draft rankings had Pettersson as the number-two ranked European skater, behind Klim Kostin. Kostin, if you’re wondering, only has six NHL games to his name. Bob McKenzie’s final rankings had both Gabriel Vilardi and Casey Mittelstadt over Pettersson. A strong case could be made, at the time, for Vancouver to use the fifth pick on either of those players, or on Cody Glass, who was selected right after Pettersson by the Vegas Golden Knights. The uncertainty surrounding Pettersson was largely due to the fact that he spent his draft year playing in the second tier of the Swedish Hockey League, rather than their top pro league.

Sufficient to say, the Canucks saw the potential and decided to nab their eventual franchise centre a few stops higher than most expected him to be drafted.

That’s more of an A+ pick than any.

2016: Olli Juolevi (5th overall) – C-

Hindsight makes everyone an expert. But, even at the time, the Olli Juolevi selection seemed like it was destined to be a mistake.

After a handful of injuries in the AHL, Juolevi has finally overcome his health issues to play in the NHL this past season, and he didn’t look bad in the 23 games that he played. Already 23 years of age, however, Juolevi is likely approaching his last chance to become a mainstay NHL defenceman in Vancouver, given his injury history, as well as the plethora of left-handed blueliners available on the Canucks’ roster.

For a fifth-overall pick, that’s definitely not a good look.

Comparing Juolevi’s career to many of those drafted after him, such as as Matthew Tkachuk, Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev and Charlie McAvoy, further enforces how poor of a selection he was. Vancouver wasn’t the only team to miss out on stars, however, as Alex DeBrincat and Samuel Girard were selected in the second round, and 2021 Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox fell all the way to the third round.

The real error made by the Canucks in this draft was to make decisions based on positional needs, rather than selecting the best player available. Prior to 2016, Vancouver hadn’t selected a defenceman in the first round since Luc Bourdon back in 2005, meaning the Canucks had opted to go with a forward prospect for their eight previous first-round picks. Kevin Bieksa had also left the team during the 2015 offseason, while Dan Hamhuis was set to enter unrestricted free agency. Rather than taking Tkachuk, who was ranked second among North American skaters, the Canucks opted for who they believed to be the best defenceman available.

In the defence of the Juolevi selection, the Canucks weren’t the only ones who saw Juolevi as the best defenceman in the draft. McKenzie’s final pre-draft ranking had Juolevi sitting at sixth overall, albeit behind Tkachuk, but ahead of any other defenceman available. The only blueliner ranked ahead of Juolevi in the official pre-draft rankings was Jakob Chychrun, who would eventually fall all the way to 16th overall.

Juolevi was also coming off a World Junior Championships in which he, as an under-aged player, was Finland’s best defenceman en route to the 2016 Gold Medal. Juolevi picked up nine assists in seven games, and showed signs of both gifted offence and strong, steady defence.

Of course, this might be a different story had Juolevi not suffered so many injuries early on in his career. But, even at the time, whether Juolevi was the best defenceman available or not, it was clear that he wasn’t the best player available, which is why his grade is what it is.

VANCOUVER, BC – APRIL 18: Bo Horvat #53 of the Vancouver Canucks celebrates after scoring the game winning goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the overtime period of NHL hockey action at Rogers Arena on April 17, 2021 in Vancouver, Canada. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images) /

2014: Jake Virtanen (6th overall) – C+

This is another pick that has aged poorly, but was also much more justifiable at the time.

Drafted in 2014, Jake Virtanen went through three difficult seasons, primarily in the AHL, before becoming a full time NHL player in the 2017-18 campaign. From 2017 to 2020, it seemed Virtanen’s career was finally on the upswing; his goal and point production steadily rose every year, culminating in a career-high 18 goals and 36 points in the shortened 2019-20 season.

Virtanen only scored two goals for Vancouver in that year’s playoff bubble run. However, despite the overall dip in production on the scoresheet, both tallies came at huge moments for the Canucks: the first helped along Vancouver’s game five comeback against St. Louis in the first round, while the second was the eventual game-winner in their do-or-die game six victory against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round.

The 2020-21 season was a drastic downturn for Virtanen, as he scored just one point in his first 21 games, and ended up finishing the year with just five goals and zero assists over 38 games. On May 1, 2021, Virtanen was placed on leave by the Canucks after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct arose. Virtanen has since denied the allegations, but his future in the NHL is still uncertain. Earlier this week, Virtanen was bought out of the final season of his two-year, $5.1 million contract by Vancouver, officially ending his tenure with the club.

Looking at the pick itself, taking Virtanen at sixth overall was by no means a reach for Vancouver. The Abbotsford, B.C. native was ranked as the sixth-best North American skater by the International Scouting Services (ISS), and was even ranked seventh overall by McKenzie. In addition to being a local kid, Virtanen also initially appeared to be able to help Vancouver’s scoring woes. During the 2013-14 season, Henrik Sedin was the only Canuck to hit 50 points, while Ryan Kesler, who was traded on the same day as Virtanen’s draft, was the only player to amass 20 goals.

At the time, the Canucks seemingly had a choice between Virtanen, Nick Ritchie, and William Nylander for sixth overall. Nikolaj Ehlers and Kevin Fiala were also available, but were likely considered slight reaches given their pre-draft rankings.

With the benefit of hindsight, Nylander would have been the best choice. The Swedish winger has registered 263 points in 358 games played so far, compared to 100 points in 317 games for Virtanen.

Fortunately, Virtanen isn’t the only player from the top-ten of the 2014 draft class who has yet to pan out as promised, as Michael Dal Colle (fifth overall), Haydn Fleury (seventh overall), and Ritchie (tenth overall) are all underperforming compared to their potentials. Even Sam Bennett, who was picked fourth overall, is yet to have a 20-goal or 40-point season.

However, at the end of the day, the Virtanen pick will always be a bet on a local kid that never resulted in a high return.

2013: Bo Horvat (9th overall) – A+

Oh captain, my captain.

Bo Horvat has just kept getting better and better since his draft year. After helping Vancouver qualify for the playoffs as a rookie in the 2013-14 season, Horvat was one of the lone bright spots for the three seasons that followed.

In 2016-17, he became the first player, outside of the Sedin twins, to lead the Canuck in points since Markus Naslund accomplished the feat back in 2005-06.

Even with stars such as Pettersson, Hughes, and Brock Boeser joining the up-and-coming core, Horvat has always felt like the glue that holds the team together, especially given his exceptional leadership qualities and consistently strong performances on the ice. Following his career-high 27 goals and 61 points in 2018-19, Horvat was named the 14th captain in franchise history.

The two-way centre also came up clutch in important situations, scoring an astounding 10 goals in 17 playoff games in 2020.

Horvat finished Vancouver’s difficult 2020-21 season with a respectable 19 goals and 39 points in 56 games.

Leading up to the 2013 Entry Draft, Vancouver held the 24th overall pick. At the time, the Canucks also had two bonafide starting netminders in both Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo, and needed to solidify a starter.

Prior to their selection, Commissioner Gary Bettman, who was met with a chorus of “boo’s”, stepped to the podium to announce one of the most exciting draft phrases:

“We have a trade to announce.”

The New Jersey Devils had seemingly picked up the heir to Martin Brodeur’s throne in Schneider, while Vancouver had acquired another first round pick, and were now sitting at ninth overall with the clock ticking down.

Horvat wasn’t an off-the-board selection at ninth overall, but he wasn’t, by any means, a favourite to go that high, either. ISS had him ranked as only the 15th best North American-based skater, while McKenzie had him ranked at 13th.

Max Domi, Alexander Wennberg, and Valeri Nichushkin were all expected candidates to go first, but the Canucks eventually went with Horvat, undoubtedly making the right choice.

Only four players from the 2013 draft class have accumulated more points than Horvat in Nathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm. Not only were all of them drafted ahead of Horvat, but each one has also played one more full NHL season compared to the Canuck captain.

If you were to re-draft the 2013 draft class, there is a strong case to be made that Horvat would be a top-five pick.

Vancouver got their future captain and leader, and the grade for the pick reflects that feat entirely.

Given this trip down memory lane, there’s no doubt that Canucks fans will be keeping tabs on Guenther, particularly when he makes his NHL debut. He could end up being as useful and effective as the likes of Horvat, Pettersson and Hughes, but he might also even fizzle out like Virtanen. Either way, the Canucks used their latest first-round pick to bolster the defence and add a legitimate top-six forward.

And say what you will, but Vancouver will be better for it because of that trade.

Next. Jason Dickinson files for salary arbitration with the Canucks. dark

What do you think, Canucks fans? Would you grade these players differently? Make sure to tell us in the comments!

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