Canucks Roundtable: Predicting deals for Pettersson and Hughes
It’s been a while since The Canuck Way has published a roundtable article about the Vancouver Canucks. One where our writers weigh in on a specific topic. Today, that happens to be about the upcoming contracts Jim Benning needs to sort out for two elite-level hockey players in Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes.
Vancouver’s dangerous duo has exceeded expectations through their first three seasons in the National Hockey League, and they’re due for a hefty raise worth a heck of a lot more than their entry-level contracts. Let’s dive into what some of The Canuck Way writers’ predictions are!
Brayden Ursel – Site Expert
For a player who weighed no more than 170 pounds in his first NHL season, Pettersson burst onto the scene and instantly became the Canucks’ best player. He scored 10 goals in his first 10 NHL games before going on to finish his rookie campaign with 66 points — enough to not only win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top rookie but to surpass Pavel Bure for the most points by a rookie in Canucks history as well.
Pettersson repeated his 66-point rookie season the following year — only this time — he had the added benefit of Hughes dishing him the puck all season long. The two young guns elevated the Canucks’ power play to the fourth-best in the league, and Hughes’ 53 points were enough for him to lead all rookies in points that year and finish the season as a Calder finalist who pushed the Canucks into a playoff spot for the first time in five seasons.
That’s where Hughes and Pettersson really put the doubters in their place. Playoff hockey was what a lot of people thought would expose Vancouver’s elite as just good regular-season point producers who would struggle in a playoff atmosphere, but they were dead wrong. En route to a Western Conference semi-final Game 7, Pettersson notched 18 points (seven goals, 11 assists) through 17 games and Hughes broke records for a rookie defenceman in the playoffs when he tallied 16 points (two goals, 14 assists).
Now that this season’s trade deadline has passed, Benning and co will begin working on hammering out a deal for the dynamic duo. Keep in mind that Pettersson and Hughes will be represented by the same agent, J.P. Barry.
The pair could attempt to enter negotiations as a unit. If that’s the case, what one player gets paid is likely what the other player will demand in return. The tricky part of this all is how Benning has decided to go about his signings. He’s prioritized goaltending and secondary scoring before ironing out new deals for the team’s best players.
As it stands right now, CapFriendly believes Vancouver will have about $16 million in spending money for the 2021-22 season, but that’s before any players (Micheal Ferland, Jay Beagle) could potentially go back on the team’s long term injury reserve (LTIR), freeing up their cap hit and giving the Canucks more money to spend if that happens to be the case.
In the end, I think Benning will find a way to lock up his players for the long run. Two identical contracts that are both six years in length with an average annual value of $8.5 million.
Bill Huan – Co-Site Expert
Due to the current flat cap environment, Pettersson and Hughes are bound to sign bridge deals that will end with them still being RFAs so that they can cash in on a larger contract after the salary cap starts rising again. This will most likely result in three-year deals for both of them, with Pettersson clocking in at around $8.25-8.5 million and Hughes at $6-6.25 million, and they’ll take up just less than $15 million combined in total cap space.
Hughes’ deal is a modest increase from the contracts that Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, and Zach Werenski each signed over the past few summers since he’s outproduced all of them over the course of his first two seasons. Meanwhile, Pettersson’s comparables heading into the year were that of Connor McDavid — only McDavid scored at a higher rate over his first two seasons than Pettersson did for all players during the past half-decade — and Auston Matthews, but Pettersson’s next deal will be significantly cheaper than either of those players since he’ll be signing a bridge contract and because his production didn’t take a huge leap this year.
Nathan Ma – Contributor
It’s been a disastrous season for the Canucks and their fans. With figurative hearts and literal lungs scarred through a combination of sharp regression in team performance and the worst COVID-19 outbreak for a sports organization since the start of the pandemic, our attention now shifts to the off-season.
Emerging relatively unscathed is general manager Jim Benning. It seems a year of distractions and a month of passable Canucks hockey is enough for owner Francesco Aquilini to give Benning his eighth kick at the off-season can.
First on the docket: resigning impending RFAs and franchise linchpins Hughes and Petterson. After the expansion draft/potential buyouts, I roughly estimate $17 million in cap space to lock up Hughes/Petterson and plug a hole or two in the bottom-six defence corp.
I think Hughes is the priority sign here and could see the Canucks going long-term with a five or six-year deal that takes him right to UFA eligibility. The obvious contract comparables are Thomas Chabot and Alex Pietrangelo, though Chabot’s deal was signed prior to the pandemic radically altering salary cap projections. Hughes has no negotiating leverage, can’t sign an offer sheet, and is better than Chabot, so let’s roll with a five-year deal for $42 million ($8.2 AAV).
I think Pettersson gets a bridge deal similar to Matthew Barzal, with slightly more money. Pettersson was excellent in the playoffs last summer, and with any luck, the Canucks might make it back before his three-year, $22.5 million ($7.5 AAV) extension runs out.
Aidan Serra – Contributor
First and foremost, you must consider; J.P. Barry and Pat Brisson at CAA are the agents for both Pettersson and Hughes. While many would argue that Pettersson’s value is above that of Hughes, expecting both to ink identical contracts would be a realistic prediction.
As of right now, the Canucks have just under $17 million in cap space for next season. That’s an issue. If Pettersson and Hughes are going to sign long-term contracts, you should think that Barry and Brisson won’t let Benning get them for anything under eight million dollars annually.
Sixteen million dollars between Hughes and Pettersson gives Benning very little to work with to re-sign other pending free agents (including Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic, Brandon Sutter, Kole Lind, and Olli Juolevi) or even look elsewhere to upgrade the rest of the team.
The answer? Bridge deals.
Look at Matthew Barzal’s or Brayden Point’s bridge contracts. Barzal signed a one-year, $7 million deal, while Point’s paid him $6.75 million per year for three seasons. With Benning’s hands tied due to their short-term cap crunch, Benning won’t have a choice.
My prediction: Hughes and Pettersson get identical three-year, $20-21 million contracts. The deal would expire in the 2024-25 offseason, one year after Miller and Horvat’s, and two years after Boeser’s. The only current Canucks that will be under their current contract by then are Nate Schmidt and Demko.
Constantine Maragos – Contributor
While the NHL’s flat-cap era is here to stay for the foreseeable future, the league’s stars will still get paid — Hughes and Pettersson are included in that group. While I don’t think the pair will sign long-term deals just yet, I expect agent J.P. Barry to negotiate their contracts in tandem.
After re-signing Thatcher Demko and Tanner Pearson, the Canucks have roughly $17.4 million in cap space; expect the Canucks stars’ contract to eat up most of that amount. However, it seems that the team will save around $8.5-to-9-million from LTIR and buried salaries, so it’s possible that the Canucks can re-sign most of their free agents and lock up their franchise cornerstones.
Realistically though, it’s unlikely that the team signs both players long-term and ice a competitive team this year. So, I expect the duo to sign three-year bridge deals at ~$7.5-million apiece before cashing in on an even more considerable dollar amount thereafter.
Zaahid Lalani – Contributor
There’s no denying that Hughes has been an offensive stud for the Canucks’ blueline so far, having registered an impressive 84 points in 110 games. But, as we’ve seen firsthand this season, he also has a few defensive fundamentals that need to be cleaned up before he can establish himself as a bonafide all-star defenceman in this league.
Factor in the flat cap and the team’s recent transactions, as well as their dire need to secure another top-four defenceman, and you can see why it’d be tough for management to put pen to paper on a long-term deal at this point. If Hughes signs a bridge deal, which many of us are hoping for, expect him to land two to three years with an average annual value between $5.5 and 6 million.
Similar to the Hughes’ situation, it wouldn’t make sense (or be financially possible) for Jim Benning and co. to sign Pettersson to a max contract in the offseason, despite his offensive production so far. The former Calder Trophy winner has amassed 153 points in 165 games to this date and appears to be improving every year.
There’s very little doubt that Pettersson will become the franchise centre that we all expect him to be, but it’s still hard to identify his overall ceiling, especially when you factor in his injury history and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the league. Pettersson still has room to grow as a player, and it would be wise for him to do so under a short-term, team-friendly deal.
Easier said than done, of course, but it would be wise for Benning to look around the league, particularly at Mathew Barzal’s recent contract. If he can ink EP40 to a three-year deal just north of $20 million total, I’d call that a good deal.
Joshua Rey – Contributor
Due to the flat cap and Canucks’ cap crunch, it’s fair to say that Pettersson and Hughes’ next contracts are going to be bridge deals.
For Pettersson, his numbers have shown he is worth about $8 million. After all, he has won the Calder and is already a two-time all-star. Pettersson without a doubt deserves the money he wants but I think it will be a bridge deal. I’m going to predict Pettersson’s contract will have an annual average value of $8 million per year for three years.
Hughes was a Calder nominee and an all-star. While he has put up good numbers this season, but his defensive play is among the worst in the league. Therefore, I don’t think he will get as much as Pettersson, but Hughes is still is going to get better as a player beyond this season. I’m going to predict that Hughes’ next contract will be three years with an AAV of $6 million.
Final thoughts
The Canuck Way wants to know your thoughts on our predictions and we also want to hear what your own predictions are! Tell us what you think in the comment section.