Canucks Roundtable: Predicting deals for Pettersson and Hughes

Bill Huan – Co-Site Expert

Due to the current flat cap environment, Pettersson and Hughes are bound to sign bridge deals that will end with them still being RFAs so that they can cash in on a larger contract after the salary cap starts rising again. This will most likely result in three-year deals for both of them, with Pettersson clocking in at around $8.25-8.5 million and Hughes at $6-6.25 million, and they’ll take up just less than $15 million combined in total cap space.

Hughes’ deal is a modest increase from the contracts that Mikhail Sergachev, Charlie McAvoy, and Zach Werenski each signed over the past few summers since he’s outproduced all of them over the course of his first two seasons. Meanwhile, Pettersson’s comparables heading into the year were that of Connor McDavid — only McDavid scored at a higher rate over his first two seasons than Pettersson did for all players during the past half-decade — and Auston Matthews, but Pettersson’s next deal will be significantly cheaper than either of those players since he’ll be signing a bridge contract and because his production didn’t take a huge leap this year.

Nathan Ma – Contributor

It’s been a disastrous season for the Canucks and their fans. With figurative hearts and literal lungs scarred through a combination of sharp regression in team performance and the worst COVID-19 outbreak for a sports organization since the start of the pandemic, our attention now shifts to the off-season.

Emerging relatively unscathed is general manager Jim Benning. It seems a year of distractions and a month of passable Canucks hockey is enough for owner Francesco Aquilini to give Benning his eighth kick at the off-season can.

First on the docket: resigning impending RFAs and franchise linchpins Hughes and Petterson. After the expansion draft/potential buyouts, I roughly estimate $17 million in cap space to lock up Hughes/Petterson and plug a hole or two in the bottom-six defence corp.

I think Hughes is the priority sign here and could see the Canucks going long-term with a five or six-year deal that takes him right to UFA eligibility. The obvious contract comparables are Thomas Chabot and Alex Pietrangelo, though Chabot’s deal was signed prior to the pandemic radically altering salary cap projections. Hughes has no negotiating leverage, can’t sign an offer sheet, and is better than Chabot, so let’s roll with a five-year deal for $42 million ($8.2 AAV).

I think Pettersson gets a bridge deal similar to Matthew Barzal, with slightly more money. Pettersson was excellent in the playoffs last summer, and with any luck, the Canucks might make it back before his three-year, $22.5 million ($7.5 AAV) extension runs out.

Aidan Serra – Contributor

First and foremost, you must consider; J.P. Barry and Pat Brisson at CAA are the agents for both Pettersson and Hughes. While many would argue that Pettersson’s value is above that of Hughes, expecting both to ink identical contracts would be a realistic prediction.

As of right now, the Canucks have just under $17 million in cap space for next season. That’s an issue. If Pettersson and Hughes are going to sign long-term contracts, you should think that Barry and Brisson won’t let Benning get them for anything under eight million dollars annually.

Sixteen million dollars between Hughes and Pettersson gives Benning very little to work with to re-sign other pending free agents (including Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic, Brandon Sutter, Kole Lind, and Olli Juolevi) or even look elsewhere to upgrade the rest of the team.

The answer? Bridge deals.

Look at Matthew Barzal’s or Brayden Point’s bridge contracts. Barzal signed a one-year, $7 million deal, while Point’s paid him $6.75 million per year for three seasons. With Benning’s hands tied due to their short-term cap crunch, Benning won’t have a choice.

My prediction: Hughes and Pettersson get identical three-year, $20-21 million contracts. The deal would expire in the 2024-25 offseason, one year after Miller and Horvat’s, and two years after Boeser’s. The only current Canucks that will be under their current contract by then are Nate Schmidt and Demko.