Canucks: Pearson will bounce back, but his contract was still a mistake

Many Vancouver Canucks fans have been unhappy about the re-signing of Tanner Pearson, which makes sense because it shows that the team lacks a plan. The good news, however, is that he’ll likely bounce back next season, although that doesn’t justify the term and money involved in the deal.

Pearson currently has six goals and five assists in 33 games this year, which is a far cry from the production that we’ve come to expect out of him. He’s only on pace for 27 points over the course of a regular 82-game season so fans are rightfully concerned about a potential decline for him.

Fortunately, it seems like Pearson has been snakebitten this season and should have a couple more goals and points to his name. We can see this when viewing his individual points percentage (IPP), shooting percentage, and expected goals.

More from The Canuck Way

• Which team won the Bo Horvat trade?
• What to expect from newcomers Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Räty
• Back to the future: How the skate uniforms became a regular Canucks’ feature night
• Canucks kick off 2023 with disappointing 6-2 loss to Islanders
• 2nd period penalty trouble sinks Canucks in 4-2 loss against Winnipeg

According to Natural Stat Trick, he currently sports an IPP of just 47.06% at five on five, which is a huge dip from the 80% he had last season. If you’re unaware, IPP just measures the percentage in which a player garnered a point for every goal scored by his team while he was on the ice. For example, if Pearson either scored or assisted on one of two goals, he’d have an IPP of 50%.

Forwards typically have IPPs of around 70%, so Pearson is due for some positive regression in that area. He’s also converting only 8.1% of his shots this year, which is lower than his career average shooting percentage of 11.5%. Moreover, Evolving-Hockey has expected Pearson to score 8.85 goals this year but he’s only potted six, so he’s also been unlucky in that regard.

When we take this all into consideration, Pearson should probably have a few more points than he currently does; if his production lines up with his usual IPP, shooting percentage and expected goals, then he’d likely have about 15-16 points, which is right around a 40 point pace over a full season.

That type of scoring is what we should expect out of Pearson next season, which is reassuring given his alarming numbers this year. Unfortunately, even if he does bounce back, it still won’t justify the contract he just signed.

As I outlined previously, the current pandemic has created an unprecedented buyers market when it comes to signing free agents. Combined with the upcoming expansion draft, and the Canucks likely would’ve been able to sign players for a third of Pearson’s contract who could provide 80% of his production.

It also doesn’t make sense for a team that’s still a few years away from contention — if they even get there — to re-sign a role player before locking up their franchise pillars in Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson, which just shows the lack of a plan that this team has.

But what do you think, Canucks fans? Do you expect Pearson to bounce back next season? Let us know in the comments below!