The Canuck Way Mailbag: Trade bait, Pettersson and Hughes’ deals, and more

The Vancouver Canucks finally have some much-needed time off, as their 37 regular-season games so far are the most among any team in the NHL. During the off week, I’m looking through your questions through a stretch where Vancouver will play just once in nine days.

With the trade deadline just around the corner, will the Canucks be buyers or sellers on April 1? Who would they be selling? What does the offseason contract situation look like? Let’s get straight into it.

Comparing contracts from around the league isn’t necessarily the “be-all-end-all” in guessing what a player is going to make on his next contract, but it’s worth taking into consideration.

First and foremost, Elias Pettersson. The single closest comparable I can think of is Sebastian Aho. Both players are young, superstar first-line centers on young teams with a lot of talent and promise.

Aho got better and better in every year of his entry-level contract, going from 49 points to 65, to 83, along with scoring 24, 29, and 30 goals in those three seasons respectively. Pettersson had 66 points in each of his first two seasons, with 28 and 27 goals each year.

Both players were also crucial in playoffs for their teams during that time, with Aho scoring twelve points in Carolina’s fifteen games during their 2019 run, and Pettersson scoring 18 points in 17 games for Vancouver in 2020.

In the 2019 offseason, Aho signed an offer sheet with the Montreal Canadiens for roughly $8.4 million per year for five seasons, which was matched by Carolina. If Pettersson’s term is five years or less, expect it to be in the Aho range. However, Benning will be motivated to get Pettersson locked up long-term. If that’s the case, and Pettersson signs a seven or eight-year deal, expect the total to be closer to nine million dollars.

The closest comparables to Quinn Hughes are both also restricted free agents in the summer; Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche, and Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars. Right now, the closest comparable I could think of would be Ottawa’s Thomas Chabot.

Chabot signed an eight-year, $64 million deal back in September 2019, which kicked in this year. Chabot signed the deal after his breakout season, scoring 14 goals and 55 points in 70 games for a Senators team that finished dead last in the NHL that season. Since signed that deal, Chabot has regressed, at least production-wise, but that can be excused as the fault of the rapidly deteriorating franchise around him.

Overall, Chabot doesn’t have the same offensive or skating ability that Hughes posses, but makes up for it by being better defensively. If Hughes signs a long-term deal, you’re likely looking at the same contract as Chabot, eight years at $8 million per season.

One other factor that needs to be taken into consideration; Hughes and Pettersson now have the same agent. If they enter contract negotiations together, I would be surprised if Pettersson walks out of it with a higher AAV than Hughes, even though… I do think ‘Petey’ is worth more.

I don’t think these two are connected right now. Playing the kids doesn’t mean the Vancouver Canucks have given up on a playoff spot. It just depends on which veterans you take out. I have been thoroughly underwhelmed with the play of Antoine Roussel and Jay Beagle so far this season (both are on IR right now), and I genuinely think any “kids” you’d play in their place would be a legitimate upgrade.

Jayce Hawyrluk, Marc Michaelis, and even Zack MacEwen are all under 25 years old, and with a bit more development, could slot into Vancouver’s bottom-six long term. if SKA St. Petersburg is eliminated from the KHL playoffs, I’d love to see Vasily Podkolzin step in for the rest of the year, especially if Tanner Pearson gets dealt before the deadline.

Kole Lind and Jonah Gadjovich are also both having good seasons in the AHL, but calling them up from Utica this season is likely out of the question when you take the mandatory quarantine into consideration.

On the defensive side, I have been baffled all season as to why Olli Juolevi has been scratched in favour of Jordie Benn. After a bit of a rocky start, Juolevi eased himself into a steady game, reliable up and down the ice. Benn has an impressive eight assists this season, but realistically, he isn’t in Vancouver long-term, so why not help the development of somebody who is?

I still think Green should have given Brogan Rafferty more of a chance. The 25-year old had 47 points in 55 AHL games last year but has only played three NHL games since the start of the 2018-2019 season.

Jalen Chatfield has also been solid in his ten games this year. If the Canucks move on from one or more of Benn, Alex Edler, or Travis Hamonic at the trade deadline, I’ll be excited to see the young defensemen get their shot.

Finally, between the pipes, I would be absolutely thrilled if Green gives Michael DiPietro a shot if or when the Canucks are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. DiPietro hasn’t played in a long time, sitting on Vancouver’s taxi squad for most of this year.

DiPietro had a fantastic 2019-2020 season with the Utica Comets, and at 21 years old, needs to continue to see game time to help his development. Braden Holtby has been extremely disappointing throughout this season, so if hope is eventually lost for the playoffs, why not give Mikey a couple of starts?

Mailbag Part 2

The Canucks.

While Jim Benning has given out some questionable contracts, Vancouver isn’t doomed long term. Brandon Sutter’s contract ends this year, while Loui Eriksson’s, Beagle’s, and Roussel’s contracts are all done at the end of 2021-2022, as is Roberto Luongo’s recapture penalty.

Benning (hopefully) isn’t going to give Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson the same kind of monster deals that we saw Kyle Dubas hand out in Toronto. Podkolzin and Jack Rathbone are both likely to arrive next year, bolstering Vancouver’s youth in every position. They are set to contend within the next few years.

On the other hand, the 2021 expansion team, Seattle. 30 NHL teams gift-wrapped the Golden Knights that loaded team you see in Vegas. Don’t believe me? Anaheim gave Vegas now-superstar defensemen Shea Theodore so the Knights wouldn’t take Josh Manson or Sami Vatanen. Not too long after, Vatanen was traded to New Jersey for Adam Henrique, who the Ducks placed on waivers earlier this year. Manson has heavily regressed since 2018, and while he is still a solid d-man for the Ducks, he isn’t close to the level of Theodore.

The Knights made some smart picks that worked out, with many players they selected going on to immediately rise to another level. Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith are all examples of that. Their inaugural season saw everyone on that team come together and blow expectations out of the water.

The 2017 expansion draft was a perfect storm, everything lined up in place for George McPhee to stockpile good players, good prospects, and a ton of draft picks. Vegas was then able to use the assets they acquired during the expansion and NHL drafts to trade for proven stars such as Tomas Tatar, Max Pacioretty, and Mark Stone.

General managers will enter the 2021 expansion draft process with an eyebrow raised. Nobody else in the NHL wants a repeat of what happened with Vegas, and while Seattle will have a chance to select some good players, don’t expect a repeat of the Vegas Golden Knights.

His injury makes it harder to move Pearson, but…for the right price, I’d trade him, and for the right price, I’d keep him.

Pearson is exactly what I’d call a “middle-six forward.” On a good team, he’s a solid third-liner with enough skill and scoring ability to slot into the top-six and play on the second power play unit.

Last season, the trade deadline market for middle-six forwards was hot. Jean-Gabriel Pageau netted Ottawa a first, second, and conditional third from the Islanders. Tampa Bay gave up a first-round pick and their 2019 27th-overall selection, Nolan Foote, to get Blake Coleman out of New Jersey. The Lightning also gave up a first-round pick to get Barclay Goodrow. Finally, the Oilers traded two second-rounders and Sam Gagner to Detroit for Andreas Athanasiou.

Pearson had more points in the 2019-2020 season than Pageau, Coleman, Goodrow, and Athanasiou, and only Athanasiou has had more points in a single season than Pearson’s career-high 45 last year. The only catch? Pearson is an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, so many teams may be wary of spending big on a player that may walk come July. For that reason, getting a first-round pick for Pearson is likely out of question, but…

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I wouldn’t give up Pearson for anything valued less than a second-round pick, or a third-round pick with another asset coming back. He’s had a less productive 2021 season but would help any team looking to make a deep playoff run, especially with the experience of a Stanley Cup run under his belt (Pearson won the cup in 2014 with Los Angeles).

If the price is wrong, I wouldn’t trade Pearson, and if Vancouver doesn’t trade Pearson, I would want him re-signed. In 138 career games with the Canucks (regular season and playoffs), Pearson has 40 goals and 76 points. He’s been a good linemate for Bo Horvat, and a good weapon to utilize on special teams but has shown regression this season. Pearson will be 29 at the start of next season, so any sort of long-term deal would have him on the books until his mid-thirties.

Two years, $6 million, a cap hit of three million per season, and Pearson’s worth it. Any longer of a term and you run the risk of a Sven Baertschi-Esque situation; Pearson regressing heavily and still being paid like a good middle-six forward.

The last catch; Vancouver has a lot to think about in the offseason. Pettersson, Hughes, and Thatcher Demko all need new contracts, and those deals need to be at the top of Vancouver’s priority list. Signing Pearson is not worth it if you then don’t have the cap space needed to lock up your star forward, star defenseman, and star goaltender of the future.

I am extremely hesitant to say Hughes.

While he has shown off his offensive talent throughout this season, Hughes has very often been a defensive liability. His point production is also predominantly due to his role on the power play, with 14 of his 28 points coming on the man advantage. While I don’t necessarily love plus/minus as a judgement of a player, being a -17 certainly doesn’t look good.

If you asked me this question at the beginning of the season, I would not have even considered answering with “Nate Schmidt,” but now, he has to be my choice. Schmidt has been solid on both ends of the ice and has consistently turned out solid performances throughout a rocky season for Vancouver.

Schmidt’s 11 points look dismal compared to Hughes’ 28, but Schmidt isn’t on the power play, meaning all of his production has come at even strength.

Alex Edler and Tyler Myers have both been solid and abysmal at different points of this season. Travis Hamonic has been decent, but a little inconsistent.

Schmidt game-in, game-out has been better at both ends of the ice than any other defenceman for Vancouver this season.