The Canuck Way Mailbag: Trade bait, Pettersson and Hughes’ deals, and more

Mailbag Part 2

The Canucks.

While Jim Benning has given out some questionable contracts, Vancouver isn’t doomed long term. Brandon Sutter’s contract ends this year, while Loui Eriksson’s, Beagle’s, and Roussel’s contracts are all done at the end of 2021-2022, as is Roberto Luongo’s recapture penalty.

Benning (hopefully) isn’t going to give Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson the same kind of monster deals that we saw Kyle Dubas hand out in Toronto. Podkolzin and Jack Rathbone are both likely to arrive next year, bolstering Vancouver’s youth in every position. They are set to contend within the next few years.

On the other hand, the 2021 expansion team, Seattle. 30 NHL teams gift-wrapped the Golden Knights that loaded team you see in Vegas. Don’t believe me? Anaheim gave Vegas now-superstar defensemen Shea Theodore so the Knights wouldn’t take Josh Manson or Sami Vatanen. Not too long after, Vatanen was traded to New Jersey for Adam Henrique, who the Ducks placed on waivers earlier this year. Manson has heavily regressed since 2018, and while he is still a solid d-man for the Ducks, he isn’t close to the level of Theodore.

The Knights made some smart picks that worked out, with many players they selected going on to immediately rise to another level. Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith are all examples of that. Their inaugural season saw everyone on that team come together and blow expectations out of the water.

The 2017 expansion draft was a perfect storm, everything lined up in place for George McPhee to stockpile good players, good prospects, and a ton of draft picks. Vegas was then able to use the assets they acquired during the expansion and NHL drafts to trade for proven stars such as Tomas Tatar, Max Pacioretty, and Mark Stone.

General managers will enter the 2021 expansion draft process with an eyebrow raised. Nobody else in the NHL wants a repeat of what happened with Vegas, and while Seattle will have a chance to select some good players, don’t expect a repeat of the Vegas Golden Knights.

His injury makes it harder to move Pearson, but…for the right price, I’d trade him, and for the right price, I’d keep him.

Pearson is exactly what I’d call a “middle-six forward.” On a good team, he’s a solid third-liner with enough skill and scoring ability to slot into the top-six and play on the second power play unit.

Last season, the trade deadline market for middle-six forwards was hot. Jean-Gabriel Pageau netted Ottawa a first, second, and conditional third from the Islanders. Tampa Bay gave up a first-round pick and their 2019 27th-overall selection, Nolan Foote, to get Blake Coleman out of New Jersey. The Lightning also gave up a first-round pick to get Barclay Goodrow. Finally, the Oilers traded two second-rounders and Sam Gagner to Detroit for Andreas Athanasiou.

Pearson had more points in the 2019-2020 season than Pageau, Coleman, Goodrow, and Athanasiou, and only Athanasiou has had more points in a single season than Pearson’s career-high 45 last year. The only catch? Pearson is an unrestricted free agent in the offseason, so many teams may be wary of spending big on a player that may walk come July. For that reason, getting a first-round pick for Pearson is likely out of question, but…

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I wouldn’t give up Pearson for anything valued less than a second-round pick, or a third-round pick with another asset coming back. He’s had a less productive 2021 season but would help any team looking to make a deep playoff run, especially with the experience of a Stanley Cup run under his belt (Pearson won the cup in 2014 with Los Angeles).

If the price is wrong, I wouldn’t trade Pearson, and if Vancouver doesn’t trade Pearson, I would want him re-signed. In 138 career games with the Canucks (regular season and playoffs), Pearson has 40 goals and 76 points. He’s been a good linemate for Bo Horvat, and a good weapon to utilize on special teams but has shown regression this season. Pearson will be 29 at the start of next season, so any sort of long-term deal would have him on the books until his mid-thirties.

Two years, $6 million, a cap hit of three million per season, and Pearson’s worth it. Any longer of a term and you run the risk of a Sven Baertschi-Esque situation; Pearson regressing heavily and still being paid like a good middle-six forward.

The last catch; Vancouver has a lot to think about in the offseason. Pettersson, Hughes, and Thatcher Demko all need new contracts, and those deals need to be at the top of Vancouver’s priority list. Signing Pearson is not worth it if you then don’t have the cap space needed to lock up your star forward, star defenseman, and star goaltender of the future.

I am extremely hesitant to say Hughes.

While he has shown off his offensive talent throughout this season, Hughes has very often been a defensive liability. His point production is also predominantly due to his role on the power play, with 14 of his 28 points coming on the man advantage. While I don’t necessarily love plus/minus as a judgement of a player, being a -17 certainly doesn’t look good.

If you asked me this question at the beginning of the season, I would not have even considered answering with “Nate Schmidt,” but now, he has to be my choice. Schmidt has been solid on both ends of the ice and has consistently turned out solid performances throughout a rocky season for Vancouver.

Schmidt’s 11 points look dismal compared to Hughes’ 28, but Schmidt isn’t on the power play, meaning all of his production has come at even strength.

Alex Edler and Tyler Myers have both been solid and abysmal at different points of this season. Travis Hamonic has been decent, but a little inconsistent.

Schmidt game-in, game-out has been better at both ends of the ice than any other defenceman for Vancouver this season.

Mailbag Part 3

Before his injury, I would have answered Pearson.

Now, probably Sutter or Edler. All three of these players would be effective depth pieces on a team looking to make a playoff run. However, due to Pearson’s injury, and Edler’s no-movement clause, Sutter is the only piece I see traded.

The Edmonton Oilers looks like the most likely landing place for the veteran centre. The Oilers tried addressing their centre depth in the offseason, bringing in Kyle Turris to be a veteran presence in the bottom-six. Turris hasn’t been great for the Oilers this year in any area of the game. He has just one goal and four points to show after 22 games this season. Sutter would be an upgrade for Edmonton down the middle.

If the price for Eric Staal was a third and a fifth, expect Sutter to net Vancouver a fourth-round pick. Hopefully, if the trade can be made, Benning makes it, rather than allowing another asset to walk in free agency.

With Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel, Holtby, Myers, and somehow Luongo all still on the books for next year, I don’t expect Demko to sign a long-term deal.

If Demko signs for a term of six years or longer, I don’t see any way it’s for less than $6.5 million per season, when you take into consideration the recent contracts signed by Jordan Binnington and Matt Murray. Yes, those two goaltenders have cups, but Demko has shown in the last seven months that he is a much more talented goaltender than either of the two, whose contract extensions will pay them $6 million (Binnington) and $6.25 million (Murray).

You’d have to question the sanity of anyone who makes the claim that Binnington or Murray are more valuable goaltenders than Demko is proving himself to be. Demko wouldn’t sign a long-term deal for any less than either of the two goaltenders, forcing Vancouver into a bridge deal.

My prediction: Two-year bridge deal, at $4.5 million per season. If Demko continues to be a Vezina-calibre goaltender, expect the contract after this to carry a monstrous cap hit.

I was a huge fan of Nikita Tryamkin during his time with the Canucks. I would absolutely love to bring him back.

Tryamkin was as electrifying as a defensive defenceman could be. He had a big body, and it was always thrilling to see him throwing his weight around. He’d bring size and poise to the Canucks defence next season.

Vancouver could very well have a mix of veteran and young defensemen next season, which would be perfect for development. Imagine the youth of Hughes, Rathbone, Juolevi, and Tryamkin, with the veteran presence of Schmidt, Myers, Edler (provided they re-sign him). Would be great for the young group to learn from the vets, and to me, that’s a really solid seven for Vancouver.

Again, though, I have to re-iterate; the Canucks have bigger fish to fry in the offseason. If Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko’s contracts have all been signed, the Pearson situation is figured out, and we still have space under the cap? Yes, bring Tryamkin, but he can’t take priority over our stars.

That’s it for this week’s The Canuck Way Mailbag. If you want your questions answered, get them in next week. Ask a question when we drop the Tweet every Friday.