Canucks: Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller are due for some positive regression

Through the first 19 games of the 2020-21 season, two Vancouver Canucks players who the fanbase have been most concerned about include Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller.

The dynamic duo finished first and second in team scoring last year, but have gotten off to slow starts for their standards. The good news is that both have been a lot better as of late and there are signs indicating that they’ll continue to experience some positive regression.

When evaluating a player’s performance, one of the ways in which we can predict whether or not their production is sustainable is by looking at their individual points percentage (IPP). This number indicates the number of times that a skater registered a point for each goal that their team scored when they were on the ice, represented by a percentage.

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For instance, if a player either scored or assisted on 50 out of 100 of their team’s goals that they were on the ice for, then they would have an IPP of 50%. According to TSN’s Travis Yost, the average IPP for forwards is 68%, while defencemen clock in at around 30%. These numbers are based on five on five play because special teams can often skew stats, and elite players usually post higher figures than usual.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Pettersson and Miller currently have identical IPPs of 50%, which is far below what they had last year; in 2019-20, Pettersson’s IPP was 64.52% while Miller’s was 71.19%, right in line with the league average.

With a small sample size of 19 games, there are bound to be irregularities in stats and this is one of those examples. Over the course of a season, however, a player’s IPP usually stabilizes and reflects their actual ability, although it’s important to note that this year is anything but normal. With that said, both players are too good for their IPPs to stay this low, signalling that a bounceback will occur soon.

By season’s end, I expect Pettersson and Miller to have IPPs over 60%, and probably inching closer towards the 70% mark. They’ll likely finish the year scoring at roughly a point per game pace, if not higher.

What do you think, Canucks fans? Do you expect an offensive resurgence from Pettersson and Miller like I do? Let us know in the comments below!