Canucks: Bo Horvat won’t make next year’s Canadian men’s Olympic team

Bo Horvat has been the heart and soul of the Vancouver Canucks for a half-decade by now. He’s the team’s current captain and also my favourite player. But that doesn’t mean he should make the 2022 Canadian Olympic men’s hockey team.

I’ve recently seen writers such as Erik Duhatschek of The Athletic (subscription required) include Horvat on the team, and Craig Button did it as well.

As much as I like Horvat, Canada just has too many superstars to choose from, especially at the centre position, so he will likely just miss the cut. Don’t believe me? Let’s list out the forwards who might be selected over the Canucks’ captain.

Canada’s projected forward group

We can begin by using Button’s team as a starting point, and no one should argue with his top-six. The only name that might stand out in that group would be Jonathan Huberdeau, but he’s one of the league’s most underrated players and has scored better than a 90 point pace over the last few seasons.

Going down the lineup, Brayden Point and Mitch Marner are no-brainers too. The former is a point per game player who’s also one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL while the latter is a dynamic winger currently on pace to score over 130 points in an 82-game schedule. It’s unlikely that Marner sustains this level of production, but there’s no doubt he can still score at a 100 point pace for the rest of the season.

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On the fourth line, Ryan O’Reilly and Mark Stone are probably the two best defensive forwards in the game while Mark Scheifele is a superior offensive player than Horvat.

Matt Barzal deserves a spot on the team over the Canucks’ captain too; he’s been able to score at a similar pace with Horvat over the last few seasons while playing on a stifling Islanders team that doesn’t generate as many chances.

I’d go as far as to say that Nick Suzuki will have a better chance at making the team than Horvat as well. He might not be a household name yet, but the 21-year-old is already scoring at a point per game pace and is already one of the better defensive forwards in the league. There’s a reason so many have compared him to Patrice Bergeron.

I’ve now established that every member of the forward group is superior to Horvat, and there are even more players who’ll likely be selected over him who didn’t make Button’s team. The names that come to mind are Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, and Sean Couturier.

Stamkos and Tavares are proven offensive dynamos and elite number one centres, and they’ve both had more international experience than Horvat too. Meanwhile, Couturier is currently the most underrated player in the league; O’Reilly and Stone have gotten a lot of love in recent years for their two-way games, but Couturier still flies somewhat under the radar even after he won the Selke trophy last year.

Now, I expect most people to concede that Horvat’s offensive game isn’t on the same level as the players that were just listed, but he could be included for his defensive impact. However, contrary to popular belief, the Canucks’ captain has been merely average in his own end for a few seasons now.

The bottom graphs show that the expected goals against that the Canucks concede with Horvat on the ice per 60 minutes at five on five is higher than the league average, and it’s been that way for three consecutive seasons now.

Like I mentioned in the Tweet, we also can’t use his tough matchups as an excuse. The graphs (courtesy of HockeyViz) shows his isolated impact, which is completely separate from who he shares the ice with.

So, if Horvat isn’t a better offensive player than any of the names listed and isn’t particularly great defensively either, why would he be chosen to play for Team Canada? The answer is, he won’t be. As much as that pains me to say, it’s the cold hard truth.

With that said, I’d love to hear what you all think about this! Is there another reason why he might make it that I’ve missed? Let us know in the comments below!