Canucks: Why Tyler Motte’s current production is unsustainable

Tyler Motte has been one of the bright spots in an otherwise ugly Vancouver Canucks season so far, but unfortunately, he’ll experience some negative regression soon.

This is due to him posting inflated stats to begin the year, which has been magnified because of the small sample size. Motte is currently on pace to score 27 goals and finish with 33 points over an 82-game season, which would shatter his previous career highs of nine goals and 16 points that he posted back in the 2018-19 campaign.

However, what’s more concerning is his shooting percentage. Motte is currently scoring on 17.2% of his shots, which is one of the higher marks in the league and in range of superstars such as reigning Hart trophy winner Leon Draisaitl. Over his career, Motte has had an average shooting percentage of 9.9%, which is right in line with the league average.

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We can also use Evolving-Hockey’s individual expected goals to measure how much a player is over or underperforming their goal totals relative to what’s expected of them. This metric is created by analyzing the quality of a skater’s shots and the likelihood that they’ll go in based on how dangerous those chances are.

After 15 games, Motte has been expected to score 2.96 goals, but he’s potted five in reality. Combine that with his sky-high shooting percentage and it’s easy to see why the winger will likely experience some negative regression soon.

With that said, I do believe that Motte is in line to have a career season given that he’s entering his prime years and experienced a mini breakout during last year’s playoff run too. If we adjust his stats to reflect his expected goals total, Motte would still be left with three goals and four points in 15 points. This prorates out to roughly 16 goals and 22 points over an 82-game season, which is more in line with what should be expected of him.

The 16 goals might be a bit high, but I think it’s reasonable to expect him to score at a 10 goal, 20 point pace (in an 82-game schedule) for the rest of the season, which would still be career highs for him in both categories.

So, what do you think, Canucks fans? How well do you think Motte can keep up his current production? Let us know in the comments below!