North Division: How the Canucks stack up against the Oilers
The Vancouver Canucks have been placed in an all Canadian division for the upcoming season, but how do they compare against the Edmonton Oilers?
With the Canadian division officially set, The Canuck Way will be taking a look at how Vancouver stacks up against every other team in the division over the next several days.
The Vancouver Canucks are set to play all their games against Canadian teams this season, which means that they’ll be getting even more familiar with the Edmonton Oilers over the next few months.
Both teams made the play-in tournament last year, with Edmonton having a slightly higher win percentage (0.585%) in the regular season than Vancouver (0.565%).
Significant changes were made to both rosters, so we’ll need to dive deeper into the two teams before deciding on who might have an upper hand, starting with their respective offences.
How their offence stacks up
The Canucks scored 3.25 goals per game last year, ranking eighth in the league. Edmonton wasn’t far behind with an average of 3.14, which was good for 14th overall.
However, Vancouver lost a significant piece of their top six during the offseason in Tyler Toffoli while the Oilers added more depth up front by signing Dominik Kahun and awaiting Jesse Puljujarvi’s return to the league.
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Edmonton also added offensive specialist Tyson Barrie to their blueline, which will provide extra firepower from the backend. Moreover, former MVP Connor Mcdavid missed a few games during the year and also wasn’t 100% to start the season, so he might average a higher point per game total than what he managed in 2019-20.
Putting all this together, the Oilers seem destined to explode offensively this year and should have a better offence than the Canucks. This has more to do with Edmonton’s improvement rather than a significant decline from Vancouver, as I expect both clubs to still rank in the league’s top 10 when it comes to goals per game.
How their defence stacks up
The Canucks should have an advantage on the blueline, especially since Edmonton will be without Oscar Klefbom for the entire 2020-21 campaign.
Barrie was a shrewd signing by the Oilers, but he’s a defensive liability whose value is strictly derived from his offensive prowess and won’t be relied upon to play tough matchup minutes like Klefbom was.
Vancouver also acquired Nate Schmidt in the offseason, which gives the team a legitimate top pair defenceman who will help Quinn Hughes provide scoring from the backend.
Even with the Canucks losing some depth on their blueline due to the departures of a few free agents, I still expect them to ice a stronger defence than Edmonton’s due to the strength of their top four.
Goaltending comparison
This category should also favour Vancouver, although the margin might be closer than you think.
Both teams will be running a 1A/1B system in goal this season, but the Canucks’ pair is more experienced while also providing the higher upside.
Brayden Holtby is a former Vezina winner and Stanley Cup champion with almost 100 playoff games under his belt, and Thatcher Demko is the youngest of the bunch whose potential is still largely untapped.
Meanwhile, Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith are solid netminders who probably won’t see much improvement given their advanced age, as Koskinen is 32 and Smith will turn 39 during the season.
With that said, Koskinen is underrated by some fans considering he posted a .917 save percentage last season, which was by far the highest number out of all four goalies.
Even so, I’d still give the slight edge to Vancouver’s duo given Holtby’s experienced and Demko’s potential, but the separation between the two tandems is closer than you might think.
Special teams
Vancouver’s special teams were decent last season, as they finished fourth in powerplay percentage and 16th in penalty kill.
Edmonton, however, was on a whole different level.
The Oilers’ powerplay was the best in the NHL by a landslide, as they scored 29.5% of the time while the team who finished second only had a success rate of 25.2%. They also came second in penalty kill at 84.4%, which shows how dominant their special teams were.
It’s unrealistic to expect Edmonton to keep converting with the man advantage at such a ludicrous rate since that was one of the highest percentages in recent history. On the other hand, they probably won’t see a huge dropoff either, since Barrie is one of the best powerplay quarterbacks in the league.
Looking at these numbers, this section is a clear win for the Oilers, and it could become an even larger gap if Vancouver’s penalty kill struggles in the absence of Chris Tanev.
Oilers player to watch: Evan Bouchard
This pick might be a surprise to some of you, but Evan Bouchard’s development could greatly impact the Oilers in 2020-21.
Bouchard enjoyed a good first pro season in the AHL last year but has been absolutely lighting the SHL on fire this season. He currently has 17 points in only 23 games played, while also making strides in his defensive game.
If he could make Edmonton’s roster out of training camp and produce right away, then the Oilers won’t be impacted as much by Klefbom’s absence. Known for his offensive game, Bouchard will give an already lethal team even more scoring while also providing depth on their lacklustre blueline.
It’s also worth noting that both teams struggled against Canadian clubs last season, as the Canucks went 5-10-0 while Edmonton was slightly better with a 7-7-2 record. It’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues this year.
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Putting this all together, I believe that Edmonton will finish slightly higher than the Canucks this season in the Canadian division. This is due to their elite special team units and the depth was added in the offseason on the wing, which has been their biggest weakness over the past few seasons. Let me know in the comments if you agree!