Should the Canucks pursue Erik Haula?

The Vancouver Canucks are reportedly interested in free agent Erik Haula, but would he fit with the team?

Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic (subscription required) recently reported that the Vancouver Canucks have shown interest in free agent Erik Haula this offseason.

These rumours make sense on the surface, as the Canucks have a gap to fill in their middle-six following the departure of Tyler Toffoli.

With that said, Haula is only capable of playing left-wing and centre, which doesn’t help the Canucks replace the hole that Toffoli left on the right-wing. Alarmingly, the Carolina Hurricanes were also considerably better at five on five both offensively and defensively when Haula was off the ice according to HockeyViz:

To put his defensive shortcomings into perspective, Haula was only marginally stronger than Adam Gaudette on that end, and the latter was among the most sheltered players in the league last season.

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Furthermore, PuckIQ shows that Haula and Gaudette each spent 41.4% and 44.2% of their ice time against weak competition in 2019-20. Using stats from NaturalStatTrick, they were still below average play drivers, as Haula controlled shot attempts 49.32% of the time and had an expected goals percentage of 45.43% with Carolina. Meanwhile, Gaudette only controlled shots 46.4% of the time but was slightly better in expected goals at 46.15%.

These metrics all indicate that Haula shouldn’t be a player on the Canucks’ radar, but there is still one caveat to consider before we come to a final decision, which is his potential contract.

There’s almost no risk to signing him on a one year deal for less than $1.5 million, a scenario that’s very plausible. This is because teams can save up to $1.075 million in cap space if they send a player who’s making more than that down to the AHL.

So if Haula struggles mightily and is outplayed by other forwards, the Canucks can choose to demote him to the minors while only carrying a few hundred thousand dollars of extra salary at most. If he signed for $1.075 million or less, Vancouver’s cap hit wouldn’t be impacted at all if the team makes this move.

More importantly, Haula provides the Canucks with much-needed depth, which is especially important this year; teams will be able to carry four to six extra players as a “taxi squad” for the 2020-21 campaign, and clubs who are able to fill up those spots with proven NHL forwards will no doubt have an advantage.

Putting all that together, it would only make sense for Vancouver to sign Haula if he could be had for less than $1.5 million on a one year deal so that the team can still have enough cap space left when a few of their RFAs are due for massive raises next summer. If Haula demands more than that, the team should look for other options or promote from within.