Predicting the Canucks lineup ahead of the 2021 season

As the NHL could be just a month away from a return to action, The Canuck Way looks ahead at what the Vancouver Canucks lineup could look like in 2021.

If everything runs according to plan, the NHL could be back in full swing by the mid-January with a compacted 56-game regular-season schedule. The Vancouver Canucks will find themselves in an All-Canadian Division and Travis Green best be prepared to deploy an NHL-ready lineup that’s capable of winning.

After enjoying an impressive 50th season led by young stars Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, the Canucks said goodbye to key players Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli and Chris Tanev, as well as Troy Stecher, Josh Leivo and Oscar Fantenberg.

However, Canucks GM Jim Benning managed to pull in a few talented players of his own, including former Vezina-winning goaltender Braden Holtby and veteran two-way defender Nate Schmidt.

Because of such a hockey-crazed market on Canada’s west coast, the success the Canucks had in the 2020 Playoffs means the expectations will be sky-high in 2021, and considering the losses suffered on the free agent market this year, Green needs the best possible plan of action.

What worked last year

For the Canucks to have the success they did last season, they needed to have a lot of things go right. Fortunately for them, they did. In fact, the Canucks had a list of reasons as to why they were capable of winning so many games last season:

1. The Lotto Line. Consisting of Pettersson, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller, the 649 line was better than most people expected. Largely because Miller exploded as an offensive threat, but the trio was quick to form chemistry. 649 was the Canucks main source of offence and they became one of the NHL’s best lines in 2019-20.
2. 2/3 of the Insurance Line. Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson were an inseparable pair that Travis Green elected to use as the Canucks’ top two-way shutdown line. They were extremely effective against the NHL’s elite and I don’t see Green splitting these guys up. Who fills in for the third and final spot will remain the question ahead of next season.
3. A Calder Finalist defenceman. Quinn Hughes instantly became the Canucks’ best defender during his full rookie season of 2019-20. The more games he played, the more responsibility he took on. By season’s end, he was receiving big minutes and scoring at an elite rate amongst NHL defencemen. Chris Tanev won’t be around to be his responsible stay-at-home defensive partner, but it shouldn’t matter too much who Hughes plays with next year. He should continue to produce.
4. A solid goaltending tandem. With Thatcher Demko backing up Markstrom last season, the Canucks had a reliable duo in net. The same should be said this season as Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby should make for a solid 1A/1B rotation in goal.
5. A pernicious power play. A top unit consisting of Pettersson, Hughes, Horvat, Miller and Boeser was enough to plant the Canucks’ PP inside the league’s top five. From there, a punchy secondary unit consisting of Adam Gaudette, Jake Virtanen and Tanner Pearson was able to secure that top-five ranking.

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What did not work last year

1. Splitting up Petey and Miller. The Canucks were a much better team last season when Miller and Pettersson were playing on the same line. In fact, according to Natural Stat Trick, when Miller was pulled off of Pettersson’s line, EP40 became a negative Corsi For player at five-on-five. Considering that the Lotto Line performed above a 60% CF all season, Pettersson’s 45.26 CF% away from Miller should be alarming.
2. A veteran bottom-six. As much as Green wanted a veteran dominant bottom-six for the Canucks last season, it just didn’t work. They were slow, their defensive upside slipped, and there was minimal offensive production. The best thing to come out of the team’s second half of the roster was the youth that began to show promise. But with little support from veterans, even that is only so promising.
3. Myers running his own line. Tyler Myers came as advertised in his first full season with Vancouver. He definitely had his ups and downs, but the team’s top-paid player wasn’t capable of being “the man” on his own defensive line. In fact, when playing away from Hughes and Edler, Myers CF% was disastrous. According to Natural Stat Trick, when he was paired with Jordie Benn his CF% at five-on-five was only 41.06%.
4. Overall transition game. The Canucks were fun to watch last season when they were applying pressure in the offensive zone, but when they were trapped inside their own end it was a defensive nightmare. That came to the forefront when the Vegas Golden Knights walked all over Vancouver for the entire duration of a seven-game playoff series. When it was all said and done, the Canucks held only a 38.21 CF%.
5. Loui Eriksson being in the top-six. This isn’t anything new, but for what it’s worth, Loui Eriksson isn’t cut out to be a top-six forward in the NHL. He can provide a stable defensive presence against stiff competition, but he brings zero offensive capabilities to the table. Moving forward, that likely won’t work if the Canucks wish to return to the postseason.

Forward lines

Miller – Pettersson – Hoglander

I think it’s safe to say that when the NHL season starts, Pettersson and Miller will be featured together on the Canucks’ top line. However, in a bit of a hot take scenario, I believe one of the Canucks’ top prospects could be the guy who swoops in and steals a top-line roster spot to start off his NHL career.

Swedish winger, Nils Hoglander had himself a tremendous season overseas on loan with the SHL’s Rogle BK. In 21 games, the shifty playmaker put up a highlight-reel performance notching five goals and 14 points. In one of his final games, he scored a jaw-dropping through-the-legs goal that had Canucks Twitter nearly breaking the internet. His creative puck skills could be the perfect addition next to Pettersson and Miller.

Pearson – Horvat – Boeser

Unless something drastic happens, Horvat and Pearson are almost guaranteed to start the 2021 season together. They played extremely well together last year as a duo and with Vancouver having limited defensive options this year, Green will want to keep these two together.

At times last season, Boeser found himself playing right-wing on line two. Something he could find himself doing again next season. Although his scoring rate was at a career-low last season, he rounded out his defensive game this year and the chemistry he formed on the B-Line a couple of seasons ago can be regained. This could be a very effective two-way line.

Hawryluk – Gaudette – Virtanen

Given how dull the Canucks’ bottom-six was last season in terms of offence, Green is going to be searching high and low for a new-look third line. The Canucks are confident Adam Gaudette can transition into more of a reliable two-way presence, but he’ll need the right-wingers in place to help him be effective both ways up and down the ice.

Now Jayce Hawryluk doesn’t have a heck of a lot of NHL experience but he brings energy, toughness and speed. It could be interesting to see how that matches up with the energy Gaudette brings with him every shift. Tack on Jake Virtanen’s 18-goal pace and the Canucks have a pretty nifty third line.

Motte – Beagle – MacEwen

The key for the Canucks’ fourth line is for them to be younger and faster. By supplying the fourth line with energy guys like Tyler Motte and Zack MacEwen, the Canucks will be able to attack with all four lines. In a compacted 56-game schedule, the Canucks are going to need all the help they can get.

As much as guys like Brandon Sutter, Antoine Roussel, and Eriksson can help this team defensively, they just didn’t do enough last season to warrant a spot on this team. The Canucks need players to come in and be a spark-plug. Veteran’s in their 30’s have a tough time doing that in today’s NHL.