Among the top four seeds in the Western Conference, the Vegas Golden Knights would be the second best possible matchup for the Vancouver Canucks.
If the Vancouver Canucks get past the Minnesota Wild in the best-of-five qualifying round matchup, they’ll go up against a Western Conference powerhouse in the round of 16.
Vancouver would either face the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues or Vegas Golden Knights in round one of the postseason, assuming they get past Minnesota. Of course, head coach Travis Green and company would be a considerable underdog against either of these teams.
A few weeks ago, I ranked the Stars as the most favourable matchup for the Canucks, citing their lackluster special teams performances as well as the scoring woes (28th in goals for during the regular season with 180).
After the Stars, the Golden Knights have to be considered the best possible matchup for the Canucks. It’s simply hard to make the case that they’d benefit more from a showdown with the Avalanche or Blues.
Vancouver and Vegas only played twice in the regular season (their Mar. 23 and Apr. 4 showdowns were canceled), with the home team winning on each occasion.
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The 2019-20 Golden Knights weren’t anywhere close to being as dominant as to the 2017-18 Western Conference Champions or last year’s team that fell one goal short of reaching the second round of the postseason.
Goaltending was the biggest weakness for the Golden Knights during the regular season. Their netminders combined for a .901 save percentage and a 2.89 goals against average. They finished eighth and 10th in goals allowed in 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively. This year, Vegas ranked 13th in that category.
In comparison, Jacob Markstrom was enjoying a Vezina-caliber season with a 23-16-4 record and a .918 save percentage. It’s hard to give Vegas the advantage in goal. And a hot goalie is all you need to win in the postseason (see Jordan Binnington last year, or J.S. Giguere’s run in 2003).
One can argue that the Golden Knights have more skill and star power up front, but Vancouver actually averaged more goals per game (3.25) than Vegas (3.15).
Vancouver also boasted a better power play (24.2) than Vegas (22 percent). Their penalty kill (80.5 percent) was much better than that of the Golden Knights, who ranked 27th at 76.6 percent.
The key advantage Vegas has here is experience. Most of the core from 2017-18 is still intact. Marc-Andre Fleury is a three-time Stanley Cup champion. Alec Martinez won two championships with the Los Angeles Kings. Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone have experienced lengthy playoff runs.
But otherwise, Vancouver bests or matches Vegas in other crucial areas.
I’d rather have Markstrom on my side than Fleury in a best-of-seven here. Throw in Vancouver’s superior offence and performances on the special teams, and you can see why they’d give the Golden Knights a handful.
If Vancouver gets past Minnesota, and if they don’t draw the Stars in round one, they should hope for a showdown with the Golden Knights. The Canucks simply have the depth and star goalie to get past their Pacific Division foes.