Among the top four clubs in the Western Conference, the Dallas Stars pose the most favourable matchup for the Vancouver Canucks.
If the Vancouver Canucks get past the Minnesota Wild in a best-of-five qualifying round, they’ll officially punch a postseason ticket for the first time in five years.
Vancouver and Minnesota are among the 16 clubs who have to play a best-of-five to reach the next stage. Meanwhile, the top four clubs in each conference (all on first-round byes) will play in round robins to determine the No. 1 to No. 4 seeds.
Should the Canucks emerge victorious against the Wild, they’ll either play the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues or the Vegas Golden Knights.
Among those four clubs, the Stars are by far the most favourable matchup for the Canucks.
Last year, the Stars fell one goal short of reaching the Western Conference Final, losing to the Blues in Game 7 of overtime in the second round. Led by interim head coach and former Canucks assistant Rick Bowness, the Stars held a 37-24-8 record before the season went on pause.
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Dallas’ biggest strength is in goal. Ben Bishop sported a 21-16-4 record with a 2.50 goals against average and .920 save percentage. The Stars also allowed the second fewest goals in the regular season (just 2.52 per game).
But for the second consecutive year, the Stars have simply struggled to score goals. Their 180 goals for placed 28th in the NHL, and they were 29th in the category last season (210).
Tyler Seguin — a six-time 70-point man — had just 50 points in the regular season.
Jamie Benn, meanwhile, had a mere 39 points in 69 games. Simply not what the Stars want from a player with two 80-point and six 60-point seasons on his resume. After Benn and Seguin, sophomore blueliner Miro Heiskanen has the third most points on the team with 35.
The Stars’ performance on the special teams have been mediocre at best. They’re 17th in the penalty kill department (79.7 percent) and 13th on the power play (21.1 percent).
The Canucks have a top 10 goalie in Jacob Markstrom, who can easily keep pace with Bishop in a best-of-seven series. I’d give Dallas the slightest advantage in goal, but Vancouver undoubtedly has the better group of forwards.
Right now, I’d take the likes of Elias Petterson, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, Tyler Toffoli and J.T. Miller in a best-of-seven over the Stars’ forwards.
Dallas may have won both regular season meetings (by scores of 4-2 and 6-1), but that means nothing when the postseason begins. They can’t always lean on Bishop to save them game in and game out.
This isn’t to say that Vancouver is a better team than Dallas, but when you look at the other three potential first round opponents, it’s hard to argue that Colorado, St. Louis or Vegas would present an easier matchup.
The Stars’ scoring woes, inconsistent special teams and over-reliance on their goalie make this an easy call: They’re the preferable matchup for the Canucks in round one.