Canucks: What is Adam Gaudette’s NHL ceiling?

After experiencing a breakout offensive season, how much better can Vancouver Canucks centre Adam Gaudette become?

One of the bright spots for the Vancouver Canucks’ 2019-2020 season was the offensive emergence of Adam Gaudette.

After struggling and looking overmatched for much of his rookie campaign, Gaudette broke out and provided the team with valuable depth scoring this year.

At 23, there might still be room for growth for the 2018 Hobey Baker winner, as Gaudette’s offensive repertoire has taken massive leaps every season since being drafted 149th overall five years ago.

In order to see what may lie ahead for the former fifth-round pick, I compiled a list of comparables that includes players who put up similar production during their age-23 season in the NHL:

The reason I chose 2016-17 as the cutoff point is because players from more recent seasons might not have reached their full potential yet. As you can see, Gaudette’s comparables range wildly, as some turned into important contributors while others aren’t even in the league anymore. This list shows the volatile career trajectories that many athletes go through, but it’s still possible to roughly project Gaudette’s future by using some other metrics.

Almost all of the players who became top-six forwards produced at a higher clip than Gaudette during their age-22 seasons. Unlike the Vancouver centre, some of them were already established NHL players while the rest were lighting up other professional leagues.

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Furthermore, Gaudette shot at an unsustainable 16 percent this season, which is the highest out of everyone listed.

It won’t be surprising to see his numbers take a dip next season as he’s likely due for some regression in that regard. Due to these factors, it seems unlikely that he will ever become a legitimate top-six forward in the NHL.

On the other hand, the risk of Gaudette regressing and being out of the league is low as well. Although it’s a small sample size, his production in the AHL was better than most of the players who are no longer in the league.

Gaudette also averaged the least amount of ice time than anyone on the list, so his PPG should increase quite a bit if he played a few more minutes per game.

Considering these facts, it seems like Gaudette is destined to be a bottom or middle-six forward who provides good depth scoring. His sky-high shooting percentage and continued offensive growth will probably even out, and Gaudette could be a player who consistently puts up around 40-45 points and flirts with 20 goals each season. With that being said, his defensive game will ultimately determine the type of player he becomes.

As evidenced by the chart below, the club as a whole struggled mightily at suppressing scoring chances. The red portions on the map show areas where excess shots were allowed, while the blue indicates places where fewer shots were conceded. Vancouver was among the worst teams in this regard, as they were ranked 27th in the league by allowing an expected 2.76 goals against per hour:

Data via Micah McCurdy of HockeyViz

Alarmingly, the Canucks were even worse when Gaudette was on the ice, as the team allowed an abysmal 2.86 xG (expected goals against) with him playing:

Data via Micah McCurdy of HockeyViz

There are actually a couple of Canucks forwards who yielded a higher xG this season, including captain Bo Horvat. However, those players are deployed specifically in shutdown roles against the opposing team’s top line(s), so it’s natural for them to concede more dangerous scoring chances.

The fact that Gaudette plays some of the most sheltered minutes on the team while also allowing a high xG validates why his ice time is so low.

Moreover, Gaudette had a 58.7% offensive zone start, second only to Elias Pettersson. This is most likely due to head coach Travis Green not trusting Gaudette winner in his own end unlike Pettersson, whose deployment is due to him being one of the team’s most dangerous offensive weapons.

Currently, Gaudette’s ceiling is capped by his defensive deficiencies. By being a subpar player in his own end, the coaching staff has no choice but to limit his minutes, thus also limiting potential scoring opportunities. At the very least, he is a third liner who provides quality secondary scoring while playing in a sheltered role.

Any improvement in Gaudette’s defensive game will naturally increase his ice time, which could potentially open an avenue for him to one day exceed expectations and blossom into a legitimate top-six forward.