Canucks: Top 3 questions that remain to be answered in 2020
The 2019-20 NHL season is in peril, leaving many questions dangling for the Vancouver Canucks. Here is a breakdown of the three most prominent.
The 2019-20 NHL season may be over. There is no end in sight to the spread of COVID-19 around the globe, meaning that as far as professional sports is concerned, it may be time to start looking towards next season. If so, this is a heartbreaking end to a Vancouver Canucks season that brought blood, sweat and tears to fans and players alike.
This season carried so many storylines for the Canucks, and while some may be resolved in due time, others simply may not. Here is a breakdown of three of the most prominent questions that remain unanswered among Canucks nation here in April.
1. Will the Canucks make the playoffs?
The Canucks staked their entire season on the idea of making the postseason for the first time in half a decade, a gambit that has become the greatest source of uncertainty for a team sitting on the cusp of a playoff berth. At this point, no one knows whether the NHL will return in 2019-20.
The league appears to have three options: attempt to finish the season and play the playoffs as soon as the all-clear is given from public health officials, start the playoffs based on current standings at an appropriate time, or cancel the season altogether. Each option presents its own questions in turn.
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If the league decides to play out the season and playoffs in the summer, its apparent preferred option, then how do the Canucks fare? They would likely return to action at full health, potentially allowing them to mend the cracks that began to show throughout February and finish the season firmly in a playoff spot.
However, summer means heat and humidity for much of the continent, often a source of poor ice quality. Of all NHL cities, Vancouver probably experiences the most temperate summer weather with the lowest humidity, which, in theory, would give Rogers Arena the league’s best ice quality.
Teams that are used to good ice seldom fare as well in rinks with poor ice, meaning the Canucks could be at a disadvantage on the road. Could Mother Nature be the downfall of Vancouver’s playoff hopes?
If the playoffs were to begin without the remainder of the season, do the Canucks make it? The answer is not as cut and dry as one might think. League officials would have to decide upon a tiebreaker to allocate playoff berths without teams having played the same amount of games.
The most sensible method would be to base final standings on points percentage rather than total points. The Canucks have a PTS% of 56.5%, one ahead of the Calgary Flames at 56.4%, placing Vancouver in third place in the Pacific Division, in line to face the Edmonton Oilers in the opening round.
However, a points-based system puts them in ninth, tied in points with the Nashville Predators but a single win behind. The decision could go either way, and each possibility carries massive implications.
Finally, which system do league officials use to allocate standings if the season and playoffs are cancelled altogether? This question would be irrelevant for most teams, but the Canucks need to know whether or not they’ll have a first-round pick in the 2020 entry draft. Since their pick’s inclusion in the return for J.T. Miller was conditional upon them making the playoffs, do they still give up that pick if no playoffs happen?
And what happens with the team’s management and coaching staff, who have been under increasing pressure to deliver playoff hockey to Vancouver this season? The playoff question could affect everything for the Canucks, so how will it be handled?
2. How will the Canucks handle their salary cap situation this offseason?
In all likelihood, this is not a question that will be answered within the next couple months, but it promises to be a harrowing task. According to CapFriendly, the Canucks project to have $20.5 million in cap space and 11 roster free agents requiring new contracts before next season.
The list includes Jacob Markstrom, Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev, Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette, Josh Leivo, Troy Stecher, Tyler Motte, Zack MacEwen, and Oscar Fantenberg. The Canucks will keep as many of these players as possible, but quite a few will likely be on their way out the door.
Canucks fans will be dreaming of seeing a full season of Toffoli rounding out what promises to be a very potent top-six, but he and Markstrom alone warrant contracts that would eat up over half that cap space.
If the Canucks were to resign Toffoli, does that mean losing two core pieces of the third line in Gaudette and Virtanen? Even more concerning, could they afford to keep any of their free agent defencemen?
Their blue line was already an issue, but losing three of their defenders with only rookies to replace them cannot be considered an upgrade. If general manager Jim Benning is unable to resign Toffoli, is there any negligible improvement to what is currently a bubble team heading into next season?
There may be hope for the Canucks if the remainder of the season is cancelled. No play means no revenue for the league and therefore a lower salary cap than initially predicted, which could disrupt management plans league-wide. Therefore, it is rumoured that the league may take measures to ease the burdens for GMs this offseason.
One speculated measure is the re-introduction of compliance buyouts, which would allow the Canucks to get out of at least one, possibly two of their many anchor contracts, freeing up to $12 million in cap space. If not, perhaps leniency on the salary cap would be an option. No matter what, there will not be a good answer to this question for some time.
3. Will Quinn Hughes win the Calder?
One of the most notable storylines surrounding the Canucks this season was Quinn Hughes’ phenomenal rookie campaign. Currently, his 53 points in 68 games leads all rookies in scoring, a statistic made particularly impressive by the fact that Hughes is a defenceman.
His has certainly been the best rookie season by a defenceman in franchise history, and some of Hughes’ numbers suggest that it may be one of the best in ever. The 20-year-old would be a shoo-in for the Calder Trophy if not for fellow rookie defender Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche, who has had almost just as good a season, or according to many, a better one.
Makar has led the Calder race for most of the season, but that gap has steadily closed. A late-season poll released on NHL.com had Makar ahead by just five points as of late February, and that could have easily changed with a late season push from either player.
At this point, it has not been determined whether the NHL will hand out its usual slate of awards if the remainder of the season is indeed cancelled. Logic dictates that they will, albeit without the annual ceremony.
There has been enough of a season to determine who deserves each award, so why not? The Calder race has been too close to call all season, but we likely will get an answer to this question eventually.
There is no telling exactly to what degree each of these major questions will receive an answer, but we can hope that speculation will become reality in time. Hopefully the NHL will return in time to finish the season, but if a full cancellation is best for public safety, then so be it. Until then, stay safe, Canucks fans.