Canucks: Projecting when defencemen prospects will make the team

The Vancouver Canucks have a solid group of defensive prospects on the way. We project when each of those young guns will be with the club full-time.

With 28 games to go in 2019-20, the Vancouver Canucks are having an excellent season. They sit atop the Pacific Division, largely on the backs of their scoring and goaltending.

However, if there has been one major question mark for the Canucks this season, it has been their defence. The blueline has been unabashedly average so far (mediocre, if you will), with the team sitting middle of the pack in plenty of defensive stats.

Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers for the future, as in the coming years, the team’s cap situation will likely force the departure of a number of veteran defenders. Replacing them will be a host of prospects, so today let’s take a look at the young guns and project when each of the Canucks’ top defensive prospects will fit into a full-time NHL role.

Brogan Rafferty

Brogan Rafferty, in my opinion, is the likeliest of these candidates to join the Vancouver blueline by 2020-21. Vancouver signed the 24-year-old undrafted defender from Quinnipiac University late last season, and he immediately shattered all expectations playing in the AHL with the Utica Comets.

So far, he has 39 points in just 44 games, which is tops among all Utica defencemen. Rafferty has been tasked with quarterbacking the Comets’ power play, and he represented Utica at the AHL All-Star weekend, during which he recorded five points. In 2019-20, Rafferty has been to the Comets what Quinn Hughes has been to the Canucks.

While not all players that succeed in the AHL are able to transition that success to the top level, Rafferty has the tools to make an NHL career a reality, as long as he gets the opportunity. As it happens, that opportunity may arise by next season.

This offseason, both Chris Tanev and Troy Stecher will be free agents, and considering the Canucks’ currently tight salary cap situation, one will likely be on the move — leaving an opening on the right side of the blueline.

Without the cap space available to bring in outside signings, the team will have to look to its future. Of their right-handed defensive prospects, Rafferty is by far the most NHL-ready talent and will hopefully be able to enter a bottom-pairing role smoothly.

Prediction: 2020-21

Jett Woo

In the storm of information surrounding Vancouver’s many defensive prospects, Jett Woo’s name has often been conspicuously absent, almost as if he has been forgotten in a fanbase constantly scrutinizing the likes of Rafferty and Juolevi.

Much of this lack of attention has likely been due to Woo having a rather unspectacular follow-up to his exceptional draft-plus-one season in which he scored at a point-per-game pace. However, he has 33 points this season in only 48 games for the Calgary Hitmen, which is still an excellent total for a player more known for his physicality than his offence. Woo still has plenty of NHL potential, and he’s underrated as far as Canucks prospects go.

Unfortunately, all this makes it difficult to gauge when Woo will join the club on a full-time basis, but it likely will not be next season, not unless he can outperform Rafferty at training camp.

The spots on the right side that will be open to Rafferty next season will probably not be available to Woo in 2021. A year in Utica next season will give the Canucks and their fans a much better idea of what they have in Woo, and that will be a determinant of whether or not he can force his way into the lineup. That said, with the numbers that Woo has put up even in a down year, I can see him making the jump.

Prediction: 2021-22

Jack Rathbone

Of the Canucks’ top five prospects on defence, Jack Rathbone is the most distant away from a full-time role in the NHL, though not for lack of readiness or ability. Rathbone has been tearing up the NCAA ever since starting at Harvard University last season.

In 2018-19, he put up 22 points in 33 games while playing in a sheltered role on the Harvard blueline, but Rathbone has since exploded since taking over the top spot on Harvard’s power play from New York Rangers defenceman Adam Fox. Rathbone has 18 points in 17 games, and he’s now among the best in a deep prospect pool. Rathbone certainly has a future in the NHL, the only question is when.

In my opinion, Canucks fans will have to wait until 2022 to see the 2017 fourt- round pick in blue and green. As I have described already, opportunities to join the Canucks’ defensive corps on the right side will be quite limited beyond 2020.

Should Rathbone sign in Vancouver in the next couple years, he would very likely end up in Utica for the first couple seasons. Playing in the AHL is not inherently bad, but the alternative is to keep playing at Harvard, one of the top academic institutions. Should he stay in school, he can graduate with a very valuable and well-respected degree.

The NHL is never a guarantee, so a backup degree goes a long way, especially when it is obtained while playing top pairing minutes. We can never know the specifics of the decision-making process for Rathbone and his family, but I know what choice I would make in his position.

Prediction: 2022-23

Nikita Tryamkin

There are many clamouring for the return of Nikita Tryamkin to the Canucks organization, but I am not confident that the Russian giant will ever have an illustrious NHL career, or at least not with the Canucks.

There have been rumours as of late that Tryamkin would like to return to Vancouver. Harman Dayal of The Athletic (subscription required) published a piece last week in which he confirmed this rumour, but emphasized that Tryamkin’s lack of impact in the KHL likely means that he will be unable to fill a significant role with the Canucks.

The unfortunate trend is that of the Russian players who have come over to North America after several seasons in the KHL, few have been impactful for their teams in recent years. Of course, there are exceptions such as Alex Ovechkin or Artemi Panarin, but there are just as many like Eeli Tolvanen.

Even defencemen who have lit up the KHL, such as Nikita Zaitsev, have been unable to transition their craft to the North American game effectively. Seeing as Tryamkin has been little more than average in Russia, expectations should be relatively low for an NHL return. If he does sign, Tryamkin’s spot is likely in Utica, and considering that he refused to report there in 2017, I think it’s unlikely that anything would be different. Instead, he would probably be left in healthy scratch limbo.

Prediction: 2020-21 (if ever)

There you have it. The Canucks have several great young defencemen in their system. Most will make an impact at some point, but it will be longer for some than others. What do you think? Are any of my predictions off to you? Is there anyone else that should be considered here? Let me know in the comments section.