Predicting how many Vancouver Canucks will score 20 goals in 2019-20

Only three Vancouver Canucks managed to score 20 goals last season, but after an offseason of serious improvement, how many will reach the mark in 2019-20?

Rest easy, Vancouver Canucks fans, the 2019-20 NHL season is almost upon us. With less than a month to go before opening puck drop, the Canucks began their annual prospect camp this weekend, wrapping up an unusually active offseason for GM Jim Benning and his management team. For the first time in what feels like years, the Canucks appear to be entering the coming season with a genuinely improved team that could challenge for a playoff berth.

Desperately needed scoring and winger depth was added in the form of J.T. Miller and Micheal Ferland now with Vasili Podkolzin and Nils Hoglander a couple of years away. The additions of Quinn Hughes, Tyler Myers, and Jordie Benn will give the defence an upgrade that has been a long time coming.

Concerns about the salary cap aside, the biggest question surrounding this new Canucks roster is just how much better it will be. One measure of success is the number of players on a team that can score 20 goals in a season, the widely accepted mark of a good season for an offensive player. The Canucks had only three players reach the 20-goal mark in 2018-19, which, when compared to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ seven, demonstrates the Canucks’ need for scoring.

Since the additions of Miller and Ferland, there have been many polls floating around the internet asking fans to predict how many Canucks will reach 20 this year. Most answers have been in the ballpark of four or five, but I am choosing to be an optimist. In a best-case scenario, there are seven Canucks that I can legitimately see scoring 20 or more goals in 2019-20.

I am absolutely certain that Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Bo Horvat will each score 20 goals this year. They were the three to reach the mark in 2018-19, Pettersson would have reached 30 last season had it not been for injuries and a slump in the second half of the year. After a summer of strength and training, I have no doubt that he will be in the 30s this year.

I also expect Horvat to score 30 goals in 2019-20. He reached a career high of 27 last season while playing with a rotating door of subpar wingers. The new additions add for more certainty to the top six, from which Horvat will benefit. I think 40 goals is even in reach for Boeser, so long as he plays 82 games this season.

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I am also confident that new addition Miller will hit the 20-goal mark by April 2020. While he managed only 13 goals in 2018-19 with the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was playing with limited minutes on a stacked team. Apart from last season, he has scored at least 20 every year since 2015.

I believe that playing steady top-six minutes for the Canucks will pull his numbers back up to previous levels. I also think that Tanner Pearson will be a 20-goal scorer for the Canucks. Pearson was acquired from Pittsburgh at the 2019 trade deadline, after beginning the season with the LA Kings.

While he has had a rough past couple seasons, he scored 24 goals in 2016-17, proving that he is capable. He scored nine goals in 19 games after being traded to the Canucks while developing significant chemistry with Horvat. That prorates to 40 goals over a full season. Even cutting that rate in half would give him 20. Unless that 19-game stint proves to be a fluke, I see Pearson joining the 20-club.

The two final players that I am going to name are Ferland and Jake Virtanen, and they are the two that I am the least certain about. Ferland has only scored 20 once in his career, during the 2017-18 season. However, he was kept from the mark by injuries last season and has displayed parity between goals and assists throughout his entire career.

If he spends time in the top-six throughout the year, 40-50 points is attainable, which could mean 20 goals along with. Most people believe that Virtanen is capable of being a 20-goal scorer but has just been unable to put it together so far. There is debate as to whether he ever will reach the mark, but if there is any season to do it, this is the one. Maybe the #ShotgunJake movement will finally get its way.

The main factor in defining whether these players will be able to reach the 20-goal mark is their linemates. Certain players can make the guys they play with infinitely better, and Pettersson is one of those players. Nikolay Goldobin had an excellent start to the season last year while playing with Pettersson, but as soon as they were moved off the same line, the former’s production dropped off.

The Sedins were similar in this sense, with Anson Carter serving as evidence. Whoever plays with Pettersson and Boeser this year will likely be able to score at least 20 goals, and that player will likely be Ferland or Miller.

If Tanner Pearson is going to score 20 this season, he will need to be joined at the hip with Horvat. While many see Pearson’s lack of production last Fall as a sign of decline, the Kings could not score in general, and he just was not a fit in Pittsburgh, as can happen from time to time (see Eriksson, Loui). However, his offense spiked as soon as he was paired with Horvat and only ended when the season did, demonstrating that there is something there.

If Pearson stays with Horvat in 2019-20, I believe that he can score 20, but if he drops to the third line as some are suggesting, 20 is unlikely. Finally, as long as Virtanen is playing with someone that can feed him passes, such as Horvat or Sven Baertschi, he can create chances for himself.

Those are seven players that I believe have a chance at reaching the 20-goal mark in 2019-20. I will add that I do not see any of the Canucks’ defenceman scoring 20 this year. Of course, this is a best-case scenario in which each of these players plays 82 games, which is unlikely. In all likelihood, there will be five 20-goal scorers in 2019-20, and if I had to guess, they will be Pettersson, Boeser, Horvat, Miller, and Pearson. Now let the season begin, and let the chips fall where they may.