Reasons why the Vancouver Canucks will contend for a playoff spot

The Vancouver Canucks have made several significant off-season changes. Will those changes translate to improved on-ice performance and will they be enough for the Canucks to reach the post-season?

My answer is yes. The Vancouver Canucks will contend for a playoff spot and here are the reasons why.

Improved zone exits, zone entries and puck possession

For me, and I’m sure most Vancouver Canucks fans will agree, the most frustrating aspect of the Canucks play last season was their inability to exit their own zone. Costly turnovers, many which resulted in opposition goals, plagued the team on a consistent basis. When they did manage to exit the zone, very few were controlled exits where the Canucks maintained puck possession.

These defensive zone gaffs, on numerous occasions, came early in games and were largely responsible for the Canucks allowing the game’s first goal 60 percent of the time. They were 11-30-8 when allowing the first goal and 24-6-3 when they scored first. The Canucks were also 4-14 in one-goal games, so reducing the time they spend in their own end should vastly improve these numbers.

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A full season of Quinn Hughes, along with the acquisitions of Tyler Myers, Jordie Benn and Oscar Fantenberg via free agency, will be very beneficial in that regard. Improved zone exits, particularly controlled exits will lead to increased time of possession, which should, in turn, lead to more offensive scoring opportunities. Going into last season the Canucks had a defence corps which consisted of Erik Gudbranson, Derrick Pouliot, Michael Del Zotto and Ben Hutton.

Hughes alone, with his ability to transition the puck with relative ease through the neutral zone, will improve the efficiency of their zone entries. J.T. Miller, who was acquired in a controversial trade at the draft, will also help improve the Canucks’ zone entries. In an excellent article written by Harman Dayal for the Athletic, he outlines how efficient Miller is when it comes to zone exits, zone entries and puck possession.

He also points out that according to Sportlogiq tracking data, Miller ranked 12th among NHL forwards when it came to winning offensive zone puck battles. The addition of Micheal Ferland and his forechecking ability will also lend support to improving the Canucks puck possession numbers. Improved puck possession will lead to an increase in scoring opportunities.

Secondary scoring

Only Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat managed to surpass the 20 goal mark for the Canucks last season. In fact, the Canucks have not had more than three 20 goal scorers since the 2009-2010 season, when they had six. With the off-season additions of Miller and Ferland, to go along with Tanner Pearson, who showed a great deal of promise late last season, the Canucks should end that dilemma.

If the Canucks do indeed create more scoring opportunities for the reasons mentioned above, they will need players who can finish. A healthy Sven Baertschi along with Jake Virtanen are other candidates who could achieve that level of scoring. The Canucks will need to vastly improve on their 25th ranking in goals for in 2018-2019, if they are to contend for a playoff spot.

Last season the Canucks had a goal differential of minus 29. Every team that had a minus goal differential a year ago missed the playoffs. Montreal was the lone team to have a plus total and still miss the playoffs. With the roster improvements that they have made, along with the continued development of their core youth, I feel they can achieve that feat.

Reduced injuries

How can you reduce injuries? They are just bad luck. To a certain extent that is true, but many injuries occur when a player is tired and steps can be taken to reduce fatigue. Some of the factors that may help with that this season are:

The Canucks have a more favourable schedule for the 2019-2020 season than they did a year ago. There is only one six-game road trip and fewer back to back games. Thus, having more recovery time between games should help with injury prevention.

Better deployment of veterans who have proven vulnerable to injuries. Chris Tanev, who has a history of being on the shelf, shouldn’t have to play the minutes that have been required of him in the past. With the improved depth, he could be used in 5 on 5 situations only. Pairing him with Quinn Hughes and his elite transition game should lead to less time in the defensive zone.

A 7-year study by the British Journal of Sports Medicine, done in conjunction with the International Ice Hockey Federation, showed that only 35% of injuries occur in the offensive zone. Although this was not conducted using NHL players I would expect the results to be somewhat similar. Therefore reducing the time that a team spends in its own zone could help prevent injuries.

It remains to be seen if all the reasons that I’ve stated above, actually come to fruition. Howbeit, the offseason changes give every indication from a statistical aspect, that the Canucks should definitely be in the playoff conversation.