Why Mitch Marner to the Vancouver Canucks won’t happen

Yesterday, Canucks Twitter’s focal point of conversation was the prospect of the Vancouver Canucks acquiring Mitch Marner. Here’s why it won’t happen.

It’s fun to speculate and dream sometimes. But that’s all that the Mitch Marner to the Vancouver Canucks talk is, speculation and dreams. Now, don’t get me wrong, I would love to see an Elias Pettersson and Marner duo terrorize teams for years to come.

I would love to see the Canucks penalty kill and power play units get a complete player like Marner, but I personally just can’t see this happening. Here’s why.

First off, this rumour has only been reported by one Toronto based writer, so do with that what you will. Even though I don’t think it is, for argument sake, let’s say that the report is 100% true and the Canucks are exploring acquiring Marner.

First of all, the price tag attached to Marner if he were to be acquired via trade would almost certainly include pending restricted free agent Brock Boeser. This would make sense for the Leafs, as they would be getting a player who will likely cost $3-4 million less than Marner will.

That being said, the Canucks would have to, at the very least, include a first-round pick in the deal, likely more than one, too. But there is another avenue other than trading that could be a potential route the Canucks could take to acquire Marner, and that’s through an offer sheet.

If the Canucks were to offer sheet Marner, they’d have to give up four first-round draft picks, assuming he’s signed for more than $10.568 million. That would mean that the Canucks would not have a first-round pick until the 2026 NHL Draft, since they traded away their 2020 first-round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning back in June as part of the J.T. MIller trade.

In the last five years, the Canucks have selected players such as Vasily Podkolzin, Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Olli Juolevi. Call me crazy, but I’d much rather have all five of those players than just one player. My point is that losing five years worth of first-round picks, even if they’ll likely (hopefully) be late-round picks, might not be worth it in the long run, so an offer sheet may not make much sense.

Trading, on the other hand, would almost certainly see Boeser go the other way, and while Marner is undoubtedly a better player than Boeser, the bond that Boeser and Pettersson have formed in just one season is something you don’t want to break up.

Back in April, the late and great Jason Botchford wrote a story for The Athletic in which he breaks down what the two Canucks’ superstars friendship with one another means to them. It’s a great read, and I urge you to check it out to really understand why it could prove to be a grave mistake to separate these two.

On top of all this, don’t forget that the Canucks still have to be wary of their cap space. There is almost zero chance that in the event of a trade, the Canucks keep Boeser and sign both him and Marner. So no, Marner will not be coming to the Vancouver Canucks. As you were everyone.