Vancouver Canucks’ GM Jim Benning: Calder-finalist whisperer
Vancouver Canucks’ general manager Jim Benning seems to have a knack for selecting future Calder finalists, can his latest rookie do the same?
Can GM Jim Benning’s current top prospect Quinn Hughes conquer the 2020 Calder Memorial Trophy challengers to make it two in a row for the Vancouver Canucks, following Elias Pettersson‘s win a month ago?
It won’t be an easy task as New York Rangers prospect Kaapo Kakko seems poised to be the award’s top challenger this coming season.
For Canucks fans and the Hughes family alike, this race will be especially exciting because it also includes Quinn’s younger brother Jack Hughes, who after Kakko probably has the second-best odds to win the 2020 award for the NHL’s most impressive first-year player.
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For devout Vancouver fans, however, there’s still fair reason to expect that Quinn can outdo them all, or at least get himself onto the ballot, which would mean Canuck finalists three years in a row for Jim’s evermore-promising stable of young hockey players.
The case for Benning’s Calder cultivations will eventually include the club’s newest draft-pick extraordinaire, Vasili Podkolzin, who at tenth overall looks like yet another blatant draft-day theft. He could likely be a 2022 Calder finalist as by then, the goal-scoring forward will have had a couple more years of professional Russian hockey and homegrown maturing to further his cause for the award.
Perusing back over the last decade of finalists shows that Benning and his scouting staff are on the verge of challenging as the Calder kings of the modern-day NHL.
TOTAL NUMBER OF FINALISTS 2010-19:
3: Colorado (but only their most recent from 2014 was selected by current GM Joe Sakic)
2: Vancouver, Buffalo, Chicago, Edmonton, Florida, NY Islanders, Tampa Bay
1: Arizona, Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Detroit, Montreal, New Jersey, Ottawa, Philadelphia, San Jose, St.Louis, Toronto, Winnipeg
Recent history suggests that Benning has done well with drafting actual Calder-calibre talent, and he could show even better over the next few seasons.
The future is looking bright for Benning and his boys, and the stakes and excitement levels are high, as the offseason view towards 2020 is predicting a tight race developing between Kakko, Jack, Colorado Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar, and Quinn.
Eligible challengers also include Canucks backup goaltender Thatcher Demko and defence prospect Olli Juolevi.
Unfortunately, the Canucks probably won’t have a finalist for the 2021 race, as neither Nils Höglander nor Jett Woo has the pedigree of top challengers. Both of these prospects were projected as late first-round picks but were actually taken early in the second.
Not to disparage, o’ ye faithful, as mentioned another outstanding Calder opportunity will be percolating in Russia. A couple of seasons from now prospect power forward Podkolzin could be catapulting into Calder contention by landing on then-third-year-NHLer Elias Pettersson’s wing, which by the end of 2021-22 could amount to the Canucks having finalists in four out of the last five years. This would be the stuff of legends.
Here’s a quick look back at how Benning and his finely tuned staff have turned up in a sentence following the word “legends.”
First, there was Brock Boeser from the 2015 NHL draft – Jim’s 2018-Calder-trophy finalist – who probably would’ve won it all if not for those meddling back and wrist injuries, as his 29 goals were on pace for 38 over 82 games, being the more anticipated feat than eventual winner Mathew Barzal‘s 63 assists. Having the 23rd-overall pick perform so well was a song and a verse for Benning.
This very next year the golden boy himself, Pettersson, won the 2019 Calder honour for Jim and his brain trust after scoring 66 points in his first 71 NHL games, setting the team record for most points by a rookie, outscoring five decades worth of Canucks, and earning league-wide acclaim as the steal of the 2017 draft.
The Hughes bros.
The youngest Canucks roster defenceman, Quinn, who turns 20 this October, could be the best skater in the world next to maybe only his brother Jack. The highly-rated prospect is the most talented defenceman ever drafted by the Canucks.
The flash feet come from starting young. The Detroit News has a great article for insight about the impressive athletic pedigree of the Hughes family and early development of their kids, like when baby brother Luke Hughes (the youngest of the three brothers) tried on skates for himself at just one-year-old.
With Quinn’s heavenly skating, elite-offensive instincts and the opportunity that should present itself with the Canucks this season, he projects as a top-four challenger in the quest for next season’s Calder Memorial Trophy, to be voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association.
In his brief NHL look at the end of last season, Quinn had three assists in five games. Those few points extrapolate to 49.2 points over 82 games. Of course, this is only math but it begs the question if he can do that with a quick NHL introduction on an injury-riddled roster at the end of a long season, what will he accomplish this season with Benning’s fresh and playoff-emboldened lineup?
Noting that scoring is on the uptick league-wide, and considering the suddenly well-muscled Canucks lineup, an injury does seem somewhat avoidable for their young offensive stars this season. There’s good reason to believe Quinn can stay healthy and thrive as a creative defender, perhaps even approach 18-year-old Phil Housley‘s 1983 mark of 66 points in 77 games, fourth-most all time by an NHL-rookie defenceman.
While some few dozen years separate these two defenders, they have something of a similar skating style and skill, but will it ever be enough for Hughes to overcome all the challenges and challengers along the way?
History doesn’t bode well for Hughes
Like the 5’10” 179 lbs Housley – Buffalo’s sixth-overall selection in the 1982 draft – with his impressive rookie season that wasn’t even Calder worthy in 1983, just being a defenceman puts Hughes at a historical disadvantage in the ages-old Calder race. Only eleven defencemen have ever won the award since the records began in 1937.
What makes this an especially fun 2020 Calder race is that Quinn’s little brother Jack – the No.1-overall selection by the New Jersey Devils in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft last month – is one of the top-two favourites.
Hockey and maybe even reality TV fans will get to watch this family drama play out in the NHL all season long. Hold the high hopes for the Hugheses, however, as their lack of NHL-size and therefore durability could become their waning issue as the season grinds on.
Last season Quinn was a Housleyesque 5’10” 170 lbs, while his one-and-a-half-years-younger brother Jack checked in at exactly the same size. The heavy NHL grind is why Finnish rookie Kakko — the ballyhooed second-overall selection in June — is the Calder favourite.
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At 6’2 190 lbs, the 18-year-old Rangers prospect comes ready-made for the NHL and is a giant compared to the Hughes brothers.
For different reasons both of the 2019-draft darlings, Jack and Kakko, appear neck and neck to win the 2020 Calder race. Jack could win because of his higher skill level, and Kakko for being physically primed to play against men.
Yet Quinn might win if he can manage to stay in for as long as the Fin, and therefore be more relevant down the stretch to impress when it comes time to campaign hard for the Calder votes. Or something like that.
Of all the top challengers, Quinn will probably have the most imposing wards in place to protect against cheapshot injury artists like that loser skidmark in Boston, as one of the recent free-agent signings – Micheal Ferland, J.T. Miller, Jordie Benn, and Myers – will surely always be on the ice to exact immediate revenge for endangering Francesco Aquilini‘s most prized business assets.
Notable from last year is that 18-year-old, rookie-sensation defenceman and Calder finalist Rasmus Dahlin scored 44 points for the Buffalo Sabres, and lost the vote to our main man Pettersson, who bested them all with 66 points in 71 games.
Vancouver’s outlook is much better for the upcoming season than Buffalo’s was last year, and at 19, Hughes is now a year older than Dahlin was at the start of his first NHL campaign. The soil in Vancouver looks perfect for the young defensive prospect to step up and play in a well-supported key role.
Let’s take a closer look at Quinn, his main competition, and a couple of the dark horses of local interest.
Kakko could easily become a permanent fixture on the Rangers top line where he’d benefit from the elite creativity of recently signed free agent and playmaking winger Artemi Panarin, not to mention having the support of hulking-offensive centre Mika Zibanejad.
A 70-plus-point season isn’t unreasonable if a lot goes right for Kakko and his Rangers. Or just as easy as the wind blows, Kakko could be relegated to middle-six duties, setting him up for a season with lesser talents, and thereby stunting his production to as few as 50 points. A lot can happen, to say the least.
In New Jersey, it appears more obvious that Jack should centre the top-offensive unit, and be protected by Wayne Simmonds. Jack could get the lion’s share of offensive-zone starts while playing with elite triggerman Taylor Hall. If they can all stay healthy Jack could easily score 70-plus points.
But like Canuck fans saw when their light-weight, rookie sensation Pettersson’s production slowed towards the end of last season, it’s a long and hard skate to play through an 82-game schedule and it wears on a kid.
Case and point, right-shot defenceman Erik Johnson‘s shoulder finally broke down at the end of the 2018-19 campaign forcing him to have offseason shoulder surgery, which may keep him out of the Avs lineup to start the season, and by way of vacuum thrust top-three-Calder challenger Colorado Cale Makar into a first-line role. Sakic will probably find a better solution before then, but also maybe not.
Other competition for Hughes
Expecting a rookie like Makar to fill the giant skates of 6’4″ 225 lbs Johnson would be asking a lot, especially defensively.
Offensively speaking, however, a 20-year-old, 5’11” 187 lbs, right-shot Makar scored six points in ten Avalance playoff games this spring, which extrapolates to 49.2 points over 82 games, the exact same rate that Quinn scored in his little cameo while being exactly one year younger.
The next closest challenger looks like 6’0″ 196 lbs, Detroit Red Wings left-shot winger Filip Zadina, who rounds out the top five on my list (found on the next page of this article). Unfortunately for Zadina, the crystal ball shows a second-line opportunity where Detroit’s lack of centre depth will stunt his offensive growth.
If key Canucks like Petey and Boeser take another step in their development… If the team enjoys an increase in creative space due to its newly acquired backbone… If Simmonds isn’t enough of a deterrent against Hughes bashing in New Jersey… If Kakko gets tied up in the NYR’s middle six… If Makar is overplayed and blows a tire… If head coach Travis Green evolves and doesn’t slowplay his talented rookie just to mind the veterans in his room… If Green shelters him defensively on a second or third pairing while favouring him with extra offensive-zone starts and top-powerplay assignments… then Quinn could have an unbelievable season and enough success to kick his brother’s butt in the Calder race.
Unbelievable talent begets unbelievable results, and he has the talent and the pedigree. If the story ever becomes Quinn breaking NHL all-time records it won’t seem out of place, but it ain’t gonna be easy.
Further to his point, even 1980 Los Angeles Kings fourth-overall-draft pick Larry Murphy – who still holds the record for most points ever by an NHL-rookie defenceman after scoring 76 points in 80 games in 1980-81 – could not win the Calder. Rookie NHL defencemen don’t get any respect at all, no respect.
There you have it Canucks fans, with perhaps the fourth-best odds, Hughes has a real shot to win the Calder Memorial Trophy or at least rank as a finalist, which would make it the third season in a row for the Canucks.
Let me know what you think in the comments section below.
After the next few seasons, what are the odds that Jim goes down as the Calder-finalist whisperer? Are Quinn and Podkolzin as talented as I think they are?
If you’d like to dive even deeper into the Calder race then check out my research on the next page, a rough list showing breakdowns and point projections for 38 of the NHL’s best young prospects who have the potential to start their rookie seasons next fall. Be sure to let me know if you have a differnt take on any player, especially if he’s a dark horse who could upset the top of my list.
Calder challengers point predictions
Considering team opportunities and player histories, and if things go well for these kids, the following list shows my point projections for the potential NHL rookie class of 2019-20.
Stats, vitals and depth projections have mostly been data mined from EliteProspects.com, while player opportunity projections have been estimated considering DailyFaceoff.com line combinations and player values, and various other sources.
1) Kaapo Kakko, LHW 18y 6’2″ 190 lbs NYR #2 FIN – Can he stick as a permanent fixture on NYR’s top line with play-making winger Artemi Panarin and power forward Mika Zibanejad, or will it take him time to climb up the line? Full NHL season playing sheltered second-line minutes with more offensive zone starts and first-unit powerplay time ~70p
2) Jack Hughes, LHC 18y 5’10” 170 lbs NJD #1 USA – Will his small size expose him to injury or lack durability down the stretch? Will Wayne Simmonds be enough to keep him safe? Will this phenomenal talent stick as a permanent fixture as the top-line creative centre feeding elite triggerman Taylor Hall? NJ Devils are not particularly tough and he may not be so lucky to last a full NHL season ~70p
3) Cale Makar, RHD 20y 5’11” 187 lbs COL #4 CAN – Will he get first- or second-unit power playtime? Erik Johnson is the first-pairing, right-handed defender but he may be sidelined due to shoulder surgery, which could mean Makar gets first-pairing minutes; is he sturdy enough to handle the big minutes? If not playing with the top-line forwards then his linemates will lack talent; full NHL season as a protected, second-pairing offensive defenceman ~50p
4) Quinn Hughes, LHD 19y 5’10” 170 lbs VAN #7 USA – Will Coach Green slowplay the kid as he tends to do with rookies? Will Quinn outshine his brother Jack somehow at the NHL all-star competition and earn a few more popular votes? Will his small frame expose him to injury or lack durability down the stretch? Will Benning’s offseason free-agent additions keep Quinn safe? Will Edler go down in training camp and push Hughes to the top pairing? Will Quinn’s creativity and skating set him apart multiplied by Pettersson, Brock and Ferland having successful years? Do the Canucks finally turn it around and play winning hockey? Full NHL season as a second-pairing defenceman playing protected minutes with more offensive zone starts and powerplay time ~50p
5) Filip Zadina, LHW 19y 6’0″ 196 lbs DET #6 CZE – Will he start the season on the second line? Could it be a breakout year for the goalscorer? Detroit needs a more creative second-line centre to play with him; full NHL season as a second-line winger with powerplay time ~50p
6) Cody Glass, RHC 20y 6’2″ 185 lbs VEG #6 CAN – Will the Vegas cap crunch result in a trade that opens up a spot for the play-making, right-shot centre? Maybe he can even crack the top six. Full NHL season as a second-liner ~50p
7) Nick Suzuki, RHC 20y 5’11” 183 lbs MON #13 CAN – Will he make the big club outta training camp, or does he need to stew in the AHL? Seems too far down the depth chart and too light-bodied to break in at centre; full NHL season playing second-line minutes in a protected role as a creative winger with more offensive-zone starts and second-unit powerplay ~45
8) Drake Batherson, RHF 21y 6’1″ 187 lbs OTT #121 CAN/USA – Will he hold onto a top-line NHL assignment? Probably but the Sens lack a talented centre for anyone to play with; full NHL season as a top-line winger ~45p
9) Owen Tippett, RHW 20y 6’1″ 216 lbs FLR #10 CAN – Will he earn a spot in the middle-six out of training camp, is more AHL time needed, or will he be flipped for more immediate help and land somewhere else? Full NHL season as a middle-six, goal-scoring winger ~40p
10) Thatcher Demko, G 23y 6’4″ 192 lbs VAN #36 USA – He’s eligible because he hasn’t played more than six games in two or more seasons, nor 25 games total; he played one game in 2018, and nine in 2019; if Markstrom goes down then Thatcher will get a chance to go on a Binnington-like run; full NHL season as backup goaltender ~30 games at 2.55/.920
11) Taro Hirose, LHW 23y 5’10” 161 lbs DET #- CAN – He’s an older, undrafted kid; showed well in his short cameo last season, got a lot of assists; Full NHL season as a middle-six playmaking winger ~40p
12) Bowen Byram, LHD 18y 6’0″ 194 lbs COL #4 CAN – He most likely needs another year of junior before going pro, but he could earn an NHL spot out of training camp; with key defenders still out due to injury, will the Avs need Byram’s skill for the start the season? He has NHL-size to go the distance, mobility to play with the high octane Av forwards, and probably will get at least 9 NHL games this season; he could play second-unit power play; full NHL season as a sheltered third-pairing, offensive defender ~30p
13) Olli Juolevi, LHD 21y 6’3″ 198 lbs VAN #5 FIN – He projects to be an injury call up out of camp playing behind Edler, Quinn and Benn; when Edler goes down in training camp for body-part replacement surgery, expect Juolevi to get his opportunity to earn a spot; injury is as injury does, and if the light-bodied Hughes goes down, the gold-medal-winning Juolevi could be the benefactor with a breakout season of his own; the 21-year-old Juolevi has one-and-a-half years on Quinn, and the NHL size that lends itself to a long season, and while he’s had a couple of time-consuming injuries there doesn’t appear to be any long term health concerns; full NHL season as a bottom-four, play-making defender ~30p
14) Martin Necas, RHF 20y 6’2″ 190 lbs CAR #12 CZE – A dark horse who looks to be in contention for third-line minutes protected with offensive-zone starts; full NHL season as a play-making forward ~35p
15) Victor Olofsson, LHW 23y 5’11” 172 lbs BUF #181 SWE – Will he make it as a third-line winger or better? The Calder is a young man’s game these days, as in the last 14 years only one person over the age of 20 has won the Calder trophy, will Victor defy those odds as an overager? He scores goals and the Sabres need goals; Full NHL season as a goal-scoring winger in the top nine ~35p
16) Igor Shestyorkin, LHG 23y 6’1″ 183 lbs NYR #118 RUS – The Rangers will need a replacement for the ageing Lundqvist eventually, though they still have to pay his $8.5m contract for a couple of more years, and sophomore Georgiyev is already there as a capable 1b option; Shestyorkin was unreal last season in the KHL but probably starts next season in the AHL; he has the talent to steal the show if called up to cover for eventual injury; full NHL season as a backup goalie ~2.75 / .915
17) Erik Brännström, LHD 19y 5’10” 181 lbs OTT #15 SWE – Will he get second-pairing minutes on a tire fire? Full NHL season as a top-4 d-man ~25p
18) Kirby Dach, RHC 18y 6’4″ 198 lbs CHI #3 CAN – Will he make it out of training camp as a bottom-six centre, or will he head back to junior? Full season as a bottom-six centre ~30p
19) Maxime Comtois, LHW 20y 6’2″ 207 lbs ANA #50 CAN – Will the goalscorer make the NHL roster and play second-line minutes? Full NHL season as a middle-six winger ~30p
20) Adam Fox, RHD 21y 5’11” 181 lbs NYR #66 USA – NYR have some big contracts on defence, so Fox may struggle to crack the top-4; full NHL season as bottom-pairing d ~20p
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There you have it folks, Jim Benning has been a bit of a Calder finalist whisperer as of late, and I believe that although it won’t be easy, Quinn Hughes has a serious chance to at the very least be a top-three finalist.