The Vancouver Canucks are looking to make a splash at the trade deadline and like several teams, they have set their sights on Micheal Ferland from the Carolina Hurricanes.
The NHL trade deadline is a double-edged sword. We see the dualities of rebuilding and competitive teams strike deals that range from excellent to laughably horrific (usually the second one). A team needs to fully understand where they are in their development cycle and know when they need to become buyers or sellers.
With the soft competition in the West, the Vancouver Canucks are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Given the lighter schedule for the next few weeks, they shouldn’t have a problem coasting as a bubble team, especially when Elias Pettersson makes his return.
This is where the trade deadline can burn teams. If we are being honest here, the only reason you should ever become buyers at the deadline is if you have a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup. Not making the playoffs, since half the league does it every year. I refer to postseason teams as either contenders or pretenders. Should the Canucks make the postseason, they will be pretenders.
So, when I read Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts and see that the Canucks are in on Micheal Ferland, I get a little nervous. Granted, a whole list of teams are in on the 26-year-old power forward. Friedman did feel that the Canucks were one of the teams worth mentioning. He certainly knows his audience.
Now, Micheal Ferland is an interesting player. Aside from the countless times I will misspell his first name, he has done well since being moved to Carolina along with Dougie Hamilton. Ferland has 13 goals in 39 games this season and is fourth in points on the team with 25.
Buyer beware
The team acquiring Ferland needs to carefully examine what they are getting from him. He is a UFA on July 1st and is looking to cash in big. Ferland wants Tom Wilson-level money, which is north of $5 million per year on a long-term deal. Keep in mind that Ferland is two years older than Wilson, but he’s not as much of a scumbag as Wilson, so he has that going for him. His playoff pedigree comes from terrorizing the Canucks in the 2015 playoffs.
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And now it makes sense why the Canucks are in pursuit. I’m sure Jim Benning did not forget that series and while they expect that from Jake Virtanen, in his mind a player like Ferland will bolster their push for the playoffs.
Ferland could impact that push, but the problem is the Canucks may not be able to afford his contract down the road. Getting immediate help can compromise your salary structure, putting the squeeze on when your young stars cash in. Remember, at 26, the Canucks would have to start winning now to get the best out of Ferland.
But those are just the thoughts and consequences for signing him. Why I mentioned that teams have to consider what they are getting relates to how he will be acquired. The team that picks Ferland up has to ask themselves, am I paying for a rental or a core player for the next six to eight years?
If it’s the former, you are entering dangerous territory. Carolina won’t let him go for cheap and I’m sure they would love to collect a first round pick. General Managers go blind when they see power forwards (or right handed defencemen) and price themselves out of sensibility.
For the Canucks, I will give Benning the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think their first rounder is on the table. But, with how they are viewing Nikolay Goldobin lately, you have to wonder if the team will try to make him the centrepiece of their offer. Goldy is younger and you could always sell Carolina on a change of scenery. He’s an RFA and has the leverage of going to the KHL to his advantage, so the Canucks may just rid themselves of an uncomfortable situation they don’t want to deal with. At least he isn’t eligible for arbitration.
Benning doesn’t play hardball with his players, so anyway to avoid a tough negotiation probably works to his advantage. Then again, Ferland isn’t exactly willing to play for league minimum. And that’s the scary part. We saw Benning grossly overpay once for Erik Gudbranson and I could see him make the same mistake again with Ferland. I said the first was off the table, but the Canucks have plenty of other picks.
But let’s say Benning doesn’t move any picks. He has to offer something more than Goldy, so that brings us to prospects. Aside from the untouchables, do the Canucks do something foolish and dangle Tyler Madden in front of the Hurricanes. Or perhaps, do they give up on one of their struggling prospects in Utica, possibly the one that just bolted back to Finland?
Something will have to give in that negotiation. If my speculating proves to be accurate, I do hope Benning doesn’t get tunnel vision and knows when to back out. The Canucks may have other trade options such as Ben Hutton, but I don’t think Carolina is interested in defencemen right now. They need help at forward and I don’t think Goldy is enough on his own to bring Ferland here. Not to mention the kind of bloated contract that Benning will have prepared for a coveted player archetype. The Canucks should tread carefully here, because this could backfire horrendously.