Vancouver Canucks: Time to sell high on Erik Gudbranson

Erik Gudbranson has looked good in recent games with the Vancouver Canucks. From a surface level, there is value across the league and now may be the best time to sell high and recoup futures for the towering defender.

Alright, let’s get this out of the way. If you were hoping this would be a “Erik Gudbranson is a lot better than you think,” I am sorry to disappoint. The Vancouver Canucks don’t have a sterling reputation for their blue line and Gudbranson has been a major reason why in previous seasons.

However, if we ignore the underlying numbers, Gudbranson is playing well right now. With 7 points in 18 games, he is on pace to smash his career high of 13 points in 76 games in 2014-15. Will this last? Probably not. His current individual shooting percentage is 8.7, when his career has hovered around 3.1%.

And his corsi and fenwick numbers are not better, either. Of all the defencemen to suit up for the Canucks this year, Gudbranson ranks sixth (out of eight) in CF% and FF%. Interestingly enough, Chris Tanev and Alex Edler are posting worse numbers, largely because of their heavier deployment and the simple fact that they aren’t playing very well together this year before the injuries hit.

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But this is where Jim Benning can take advantage of what he knows. Benning may not be the best person to conduct a trade, but he just needs the right framework. Among all NHL defencemen, Gudbranson’s seven points is tied for 50th in the league. However, if we reduce the sample to right-handed blue liners, he is tied for 22nd.

By now, you know how this league works. Defencemen go for a premium and the right handed defenceman is treated like a unicorn in the game. Gudbranson is not the equivalent of a top pairing guy, but his size, handedness and former draft status as a third overall pick carry value in this league, regardless of what history and underlying metrics say.

That is perfect for Jim Benning. He can talk up how tough Gudbranson is to play against (even if he isn’t) and the physical presence he imposes (which is little when you look at his hit rates over a full season). It doesn’t matter if Gudbranson is slow and his positional awareness is questionable. Or the fact that Ben Hutton is doing a great job of carrying Gudbranson when they are together.

Benning can use this as the perfect opportunity to recoup some of what he invested to acquire Gudbranson in the first place. Teams are always looking for right handed, defensive defencemen. And at this point, Benning can add the offensive component that Gudbranson is showing now. The Vancouver Canucks hot stretch of play is increasing his trade value and the GM should make a move before his numbers regress to his average.

The team won’t break even on that original trade, which is a fact that I can accept. But, if the team can scrounge together a second round and late round pick for Gudbranson, you take that and run. There are only two years left on that contract after this season and we learned last year that a few playoff GM’s were comfortable with that deal. Good. Benning needs to find them and fast before the rest of the league catches on to what Gudbranson really is.

Next. Vancouver Canucks prospects of week 10: DiPietro, Madden, Juolevi. dark

A trade would not erase the initial mistake, but getting futures to essentially start again with what was thrown away is not a bad way to proceed. It benefits the rebuild, Benning saves some face and Gudbranson may get a free ticket to a playoff team. That seems like a win for everybody. However, the clock is ticking. The longer Benning waits, the more likely Gudbranson gets injured or diminishes his own trade value. Opportunities like this won’t come often and I hope Benning can see that.

*Stats from NHL.com, Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick

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