Vancouver Canucks: Should we buy this early start?

Once again, the Vancouver Canucks are off to a surprisingly strong start through their first 10 games. But should we buy them as a playoff contender this time around?

It’s not just the 5-3-0 record that has folks impressed with the Vancouver Canucks this early in the season, but also the quality of competition they’ve beaten with prized rookie Elias Pettersson sidelined due to a head injury.

On Saturday, the Canucks squeaked out a thrilling 2-1 victory against the Boston Bruins, playing a sound defensive game while Jacob Markstrom turned aside 30 shots in the victory. Vancouver beat one of the top teams in the NHL without their top scorer — four days after they escaped the Steel City with a 3-2 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Again, without Pettersson in that one.

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So the Canucks sit at 5-3-0, which is extremely impressive given the low expectations they had coming into this season.

A grueling six-game road trip against top-notch opponents? They left with three wins. A home contest with the Bruins? No problem, Bo Horvat will play overtime hero.

The Canucks started out 6-3-1 last season, though the bulk of those victories came against some of the NHL’s worst teams (Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers, etc).

So far, they’ve shown they can hang with the top teams, even without their rookie star.

Entering play today, the Canucks sit at third in the Pacific Division with 10 points, but can we really expect them to hang around in the playoff race much longer?

They stood at 14-10-4 on Dec. 5 of last season, but a pair of four-game losing streaks that month led to their undoing. Can we really expect a similar fate this season?

Pacific Division looks weak…so far

If the Pacific Division is going to stay this awful throughout 2018-19, the Canucks will be in the running. The Arizona Coyotes were never going to be a playoff team, but few could have expected the Los Angeles Kings to limp out of the gate (2-5-1).

The Vegas Golden Knights have been hit by seemingly inevitable regression (4-4-0). The 3-3-0 Edmonton Oilers won’t be a playoff contender if Connor McDavid is doing all the scoring again. So far, captain Connor is doing all the scoring.

Following a 3-0-0 start, the Anaheim Ducks have lost four of their last six. They’ll be without Corey Perry for a few more months, so it’s hard to envision them maintaining the top spot in the division. Like the Kings, the Ducks have too many ageing, past-their-prime veterans. Both could squeak in the postseason, or both could falter to the bottom of the Western Conference standings.

The Calgary Flames are playing up to their talent level, and one should consider them the early favorite to win the Pacific Division. The Canucks probably won’t stay ahead of the San Jose Sharks. Newcomer Erik Karlsson will start turning a corner soon.

So it’s possible the Canucks hang around in the playoff race for a while, especially if their divisional foes continue to struggle and/or stay in mediocrity. It’s early, but it seems like this division won’t be as brutal compared to recent years.

There’s a reason for optimism, Canucks fans.

Are the Canucks good enough?

The stats say they’re actually overachieving. The Canucks rank 18th in goals per game, 16th in goals against per game, 14th in power play percentage and eighth against the penalty kill, via NHL.com.

And here’s the scary part, the Canucks rank 30th in team five-on-five Corsi For Percentage — a woeful 42.26 percent — per NaturalStatTrick.com. Their 43.55 Shots on Goal For Percentage ranks 29th in the NHL. Simply put, the Canucks are barely winning games with very porous puck possession numbers.

Credit must go to both Markstrom and Anders Nilsson for stealing Vancouver games, and the blueline has played better than expected thus far. But it’s hard to sustain this much puck luck throughout the course of an entire season.

Mind you, the 2013-14 Central Division-winning Colorado Avalanche and 2014-15 Calgary Flames are prime examples of being able to make the playoffs with bad puck possession numbers. So can the Canucks keep this hot start off and make the postseason? Anything is possible, especially after seeing the expansion Golden Knights reach the Stanley Cup Final last year.

But the numbers and recent history suggest we can expect Vancouver to slow down soon, unless the on-ice play gets better all-around. Petterson’s return just might change that.