The Future of the Pacific Division and the Vancouver Canucks

All teams get old. Their skills decline and their reign of dominance wanes. The Canucks need to be on an upswing in a few years from now, but where will their place be in the future Pacific Division?

The future is all the Vancouver Canucks can look forward to. We should also keep an eye on the present and avoid getting lost in the past. Without winning a Stanley Cup, it’s harder to fall into that trap. As time moves on, the current Canucks only have two remaining members from that 2011 team.

Fans have their sights set on what’s to come. Whether it be three years, five years or more from now, better days are hopefully on the way. By the time the Canucks’ younger players enter their expected primes, other cores will be in their twilight years.

But the Canucks aren’t the only team with a youth movement in the Pacific Division. Other teams are building as well. So, let’s estimate where the Canucks will stand compared to the rest. We need a date of reference, so let’s go with the 2021-22 season. That gives all eight teams three full seasons for their prospects to develop.

Of course, I can only make estimations based on what each team currently has. Certain teams will continue to draft high over the next three years (like the Canucks), but it would be frivolous to guess how much better or worse each prospect pool gets. We will take each team’s future and see how it could shake out, factoring in roster logjams and salary cap complications.

The California decline

Three years from now is going to be a lot better for Vancouver than the other three teams on the west coast. California was once a juggernaut; the scariest part of any team’s road trip. Age, injury and bloated contracts have withered these former titans, which will drive them to a rebuild, whether they realize it or not.

Let’s start with Los Angeles. I don’t have any sympathy for their situation since they got two Stanley Cups out of it. However, the team has over $53 million locked in on eight players through 2021. The average age of those players? 32. The current deals for Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty are good now, but how about in five years, when the two combine for a $21 million cap hit? The Kings don’t have much of a prospect pool and must use this time to stock the cupboards. With that much cap space tied up, their roster will need to add pieces that are young and cheap.

The other SoCal team is financial trouble as well. Anaheim has invested fairly well in goal and on defence. John Gibson is young and their blue line is ready to compete now. The problem is their forward ranks. Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler combine for $23.75 million a year. With an average age of 33 and deals running through 2021 (2022 for Kesler), it’s not a great picture. Kesler may not even play next season, creating more holes in the lineup. This is not a playoff team anymore. Fortunately, they have nice pieces on the roster, but they could still use a few game-breaking forwards. Easier said than done.

Last but not least are the San Jose Sharks. They have invested well to win now. Their core is not as old as Anaheim or LA. And they have a better chance of returning to the postseason than either club. San Jose put a lot of money at the top of their lineup and are able to spend little on depth players. That’s what you want, even if you can critique their scoring depth. The Sharks have to be careful. By 2021, I think their core will still be okay. But they have dealt away a lot of draft picks to build this team and they may have to balance out re-stocking their pool. They could be in a similar situation to the Canucks post-2011 if they can’t manage to win while investing draft picks.

The Desert trek

The Vegas Golden Knights took everyone by surprise with a miracle season. I know everyone expects them to crash hard back to Earth, I don’t think it will be quite what you think. The Knights will still be good, but a few players like William Karlsson won’t replicate his season. I still see a playoff team, but not one that will ride the hot hand of Marc-Andre Fleury to the same effect.

Vegas is in a good spot financially and if they stay smart with their RFA’s, 2021 won’t be an issue. Of course, their time to win is now, but thanks to the Expansion Draft, Vegas had 20 draft picks in the last two drafts. And remember, they traded away three picks (including a first) to acquire a player who was a healthy scratch. I’m not saying that was smart, just illustrating how rich they were with futures. Their prospect pool is new, but I see a decent group there. You will know who Cody Glass, Erik Brännström and Nick Suzuki are in three years time.

As for the other team in a desert, John Chayka’s Arizona Coyotes are loaded with prospects. They have made interesting trades, using their salary cap space to extort assets from cap-strapped teams. Not every move has been perfect and anytime they stumble, critics of analytics like to use Arizona as the authority on everything. Chayka uses his own analytics with mixed results.

Arizona’s rebuild has felt like an eternity. They are in a similar situation as Edmonton and Buffalo. However, since the 2014 draft, the Coyotes have produced more NHL players than the Canucks, if you are keeping score. We have seen the more notable Jakob Chychrun and Clayton Keller, but don’t be surprised when Dylan Strome debuts. He may be the Olli Juolevi of the 2015 draft, but like Juolevi, he will be a decent NHL player. I doubt Arizona will be in its current position by 2021. This time for sure.

Where do the Canucks fit?

So, we looked at the other teams in the Pacific, but what about the team in Vancouver? The Canucks certainly have the best prospects in the division. Once they hit the NHL, it will be interesting to see their place. I’ve covered bad contracts on this roster before. By 2021, we will see Brandon Sutter and Erik Gudbranson come off the books, leaving behind Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel and Jay Beagle.

If the team’s future prospects all turn out as good as you think, they will be expensive. You don’t want dead space on your salary cap, so it may be prudent to pay a few of these players to not be on the roster. It wouldn’t clear salary in some cases, but at least free up a roster spot.

The Canucks will likely find a way to figure this out (it would embarrassing otherwise). With that being said, I’m not going to assume that the Canucks will be winning any President’s Trophies in 2021. They will definitely be better than LA and Anaheim. Besting San Jose will be possible, but not certain. Anything can happen with Vegas, so I’m not comfortable putting Vancouver ahead of them in three years.

I think Arizona will be in a similar spot, but the Canucks could edge them out. Same thing goes for the Oilers. Actually, I have a feeling those three teams may compete for the same wild card spot when push comes to shove in this future scenario. That leaves Calgary finishing ahead of Vancouver. It’s not what you want to hear, but keep in mind that the Flames’ rebuild is supposed to already be over (so is Edmonton’s, but here we are).

There you have it. By 2021, I would hope the Vancouver Canucks are in a position to be in a playoff spot. If not, you would have to question what the team is doing by that point. That season would be seven years of team building and by then you need a lot more to show for it than prospects.

Vancouver could certainly beat my expectations. Then again, the people building for the future thought we had a playoff team for the last three seasons. Excuse me for the lack of faith. Power will shift in the Pacfic Division. I don’t see the Canucks at the bottom once the shift takes place. However, I don’t see them at the top, either. It just makes the most sense that they end up in the middle.