The Vancouver Canucks need to blow up the defence
If the Canucks have their target set on the playoffs, they can’t bring back the defence that led them to another bottom five finish. There comes a time when a shake up is needed and that time is now.
Following up from yesterday’s logjam at forward, I think there is a more pressing issue on defence. The Vancouver Canucks are set to finish in the basement of the NHL for the third consecutive year. Are you sick of hearing this? I don’t particularly care. This is a fact, whether you want to believe it or not. That’s your prerogative.
Call a spade a spade. This team is bad. There is a bump in offence from the forwards thanks to Brock Boeser, but the team still struggles defensively. Part of this is on some of the forwards who hurt this team in the possession department. You can also bemoan the inconsistent goaltending that ranged from excellent to just outright awful.
However, that does not give the Canucks defence a pass. They have a responsibility in the team’s struggles and you can’t brush that under the rug. Vancouver ranks 28th in corsi for percentage (47.43), 28th in goals for percentage (45.12) and 27th in high danger scoring chance percentage (46.85). These stats all come from Natural Stat Trick. Simply put, the opposition scores more goals, creates more chances in dangerous locations and outperforms the Canucks.
On top of their poor even strength play, they are getting demolished on the penalty kill. Despite having the seventh best power play (per the NHL stats page), their penalty kill is ranked 26th at 77%. As bad as it sounds on the defensive side of things, that’s not the largest concern. The real issue is the lack of assistance the forwards collectively receive from the blue line. Modern NHL defencemen have to produce and the Canucks need a lot of help in this area.
Offensive woes*
*All counting stats obtained from Natural Stat Trick
I looked at NHL defences in three offensive categories: total points, 5v5 points and primary 5v5 points (goals and first assists). Why include primary 5v5 points? While not being a perfect measure, they correlate well with expected goal production. This doesn’t mean that secondary assists have no value in stats, but some players benefit from racking up those assists while having little effect on the play.
However, you see players that are excellent playmakers with many secondary assists. Matthew Tkachuk‘s draft year was a good example of this. With that information in mind, you dig deeper to find the context.
The NHL has 31 teams, so I don’t want to bog you down with an overly long table of numbers from them all. That’s why I will stick with the bottom five teams by points from their defencemen. This list is ordered from most total points to least.
Team |
Primary 5v5 Points
5v5 Points
Total Points
Montreal Canadiens
4963103
Edmonton Oilers
4979102
Detroit Red Wings
3664
100
Vancouver Canucks3057
97
Buffalo Sabres3559
94
As you can see, the Canucks don’t keep the best company with them. The Canucks’ defence are ranked 30th in total points. As you can see, the power play gives the blue line a boost, especially for someone like Alex Edler, who has 15 of his 26 points with the man advantage.
The Canucks are dead last in the 5v5 points and primary 5v5 points categories. With the 23rd ranked offence in the NHL, there is an offensive black hole on defence. I’m not just pointing fingers at Erik Gudbranson. Collectively, this defence is not doing enough to help their team score.
For your curiosity, the three most productive defences belonged to Nashville (172 points), San Jose (157 points) and Las Vegas (154 points). Nashville (114 points), Toronto (113 points) and San Jose (109 points) lead 5v5 production. The teams sitting on top of primary 5v5 point totals are Tampa Bay (73), Toronto (70) and the New York Islanders (68).
In short, the Canucks have a long way to go before being a playoff team, let alone among the elite in the NHL.
Changes that must be made
This is what I alluded to in the forward logjam article. You can’t bring back everyone from this year and expect a different result. This defence came from a bottom-feeding team. They will not improve as they are. Changes must be made.
With six defencemen signed for next season and Troy Stecher and Derrick Pouliot being restricted free agents this year, the Canucks are set to bring everyone from this year back. Travis Green has made it clear that he takes handedness into consideration when deploying his defence.
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Derrick Pouliot is the only defenceman that plays on his offside, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Green would prefer to have him on the left side. Of that current group of eight, five defencemen are left-handed. Olli Juolevi is left-handed. Of course you could waive Alex Biega, but do you think Travis Green will let Jim Benning leave him with six left-handed defencemen and two right-handed ones? I don’t think so.
We have heard the definition of insanity paraphrased as trying the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. Although it is often misattributed to Albert Einstein, the statement is logically sound. If the goal next year is to make the playoffs (which it is), why would you send out the same defence that finished in the league basement last year? It doesn’t make any logical sense.
The Canucks need offensive defencemen. I am not asking for a Norris worthy player, although that would help a lot. How about drafting and developing a couple 30-point defencemen? Is that too much to ask? Alex Edler is playing great and has the chance to break 30 points this year, but he can’t continue to be relied on at this stage of his career. Vancouver needs something new. Something has to change.
Option 1: status quo
So the team has a couple options. First, they maintain the status quo and no defencemen are moved between now and training camp. Olli Juolevi gets the Troy Stecher treatment and is sent to Utica to begin the season and will be the first call up when the injuries hit in October. This is the safe move and will produce similar results to this year.
If Brock Boeser couldn’t carry the team into the playoffs, why would you expect Olli Juolevi to suddenly do the same? The defence will not radically change with the addition of Juolevi. Let’s say the young defenceman duplicates the rookie seasons had by Stecher and Ben Hutton. Have you noticed that once they stopped receiving soft offensive zone starts, their point totals dropped precipitously?
The team can’t keep putting all their eggs in one basket. Vancouver’s future defence can’t hinge on Juolevi and the mystery first round pick from this year’s draft. You need to add more top four defencemen around them and the best way to do that is in the draft.
Option 2: blow it up
That’s why I don’t like option one. It avoids making meaningful progress. A second option would be to strip down the blue line. This means trading players like Chris Tanev, Erik Gudbranson and even Michael Del Zotto. Ben Hutton is likely on the move, but his value has been brought so low this year, I am not optimistic about what he could return.
I accept that Alex Edler will not leave, which is his right with an no-trade clause. Tanev has one as well, but since this team isn’t going anywhere soon, he could be persuaded to chase a Cup.
I know people want Tanev around to mentor Juolevi, but do you think Green starts his best defenceman on the third pair to babysit the rookie? Is there any indication that Green would give an untested rookie prime minutes out of the gate? No. Juolevi will sit if he makes the team and injuries will be his way into the lineup.
Players like Tanev and Gudbranson have value in this league and at a time where the Canucks are too slow to accumulate talent on defence, this is how it has to be done. No more trades for 22-year-old tweeners. Just get as many draft picks as possible. Guys like Gudbranson can be replaced in free agency for league minimum. You just need to exercise patience and not get caught up in the auctions on July 1.
Next: Nothing but back luck in 2017-18
This option is not for the passive. Jim Benning needs to make several phone calls between now and draft. He can’t have his hand held by the other general managers in this league. They say it’s a war on the ice. I do hope he strives for option two. Fans can only be patient for so long in the face of losing. There will be a breaking point. But hey, failure has just been the status quo.