Vancouver Canucks will have a forward logjam next season
The season is not over yet and the Canucks will have a lot of players trying to snap up the few spots left on the roster next season. Here’s why the Canucks will have to get creative and why this “competition” is not as good as you think.
With 15 games left on the schedule, it may be a little early to talk about roster spots for next year. However, when you’re star player is out, there isn’t much to talk about. Unless, you’re Elias Pettersson, that is. You’ll hear about Pettersson breaking the all time U20 points record later this weekend.
Jim Benning is not willing to shake up the Vancouver Canucks despite finishing in the bottom five for the third year in a row. We had our annual blame of injuries, goaltending and pointing fingers everywhere except for the people who built this roster. Despite that, the team is committing to half of this forward group for next year. Since the roster is such an overarching thing to cover, I will just stick to the forwards today.
On the surface, more players means a better competition of spots on the roster. We have heard this song and dance before for the last few years, so it’s not quite as rosy as it sounds. Anyway, let’s see where the “competition” is for roster spots.
A brief word on the defence
Unsurprisingly, the Canucks look like they will bring back everyone on the blue line next year. Derrick Pouliot and Troy Stecher are restricted free agents, but the team will get them signed. Those two are not the issue. The team is not interested in making changes and keeping the status quo is an all too familiar habit.
The defence is a can of worms I don’t want to open in this article. Let’s just say with four left handed defencemen, it will be tough for Olli Juolevi to make the lineup the next year unless a move or two is made.
Although, it does give us a starting point to work from. I can see the Canucks carry 8 defencemen and two goaltenders, leaving them 13 forwards spots remaining on the roster.
Committed forwards for next season*
*All waiver and qualifying offer information comes from capfriendly.com
The title should be self-explanatory, but these are the forwards with a contract for next season (relatively in their roster spots from this year):
That’s nine forwards already. Keep in mind, Brock Boeser will likely be the only forward in this group that won’t require waivers next year to be sent to Utica. He’s not going anywhere, but considering Tyler Motte has 12 games left before he requires waivers, it will be interesting if he gets to play in every remaining game on the schedule. If the Canucks were to strategically sit Motte, they could stash him in the minors and burn off the waiver-free period next season whenever they want.
Since this was the final year before Goldobin would require waivers for assignment, a savvy team would have given a much longer look at him. There are deficiencies in his game, especially away from the puck, but with roster filler like Sam Gagner and Nic Dowd, the team was wasting their time by not seeing what they have in Goldy.
Restricted free agent forwards*
*All waiver and qualifying offer information comes from capfriendly.com
Player |
Qualifying Offer
Requires Waivers in 2018-19?
$2 000 000
Yes
$997 500
Yes
$874 125
Yes
$721 875
Yes
$874 125
No
$721 875
Yes
$715 000
Yes
The bottom three names don’t affect the logjam. Cole Cassels should not be brought back and Griffen Molino won’t require waivers, so it’s up to Jim Benning if either are worth the contract slot. Michael Chaput is a good depth forward to have, so he’s likely back and will be waived in the fall.
Reid Boucher is an interesting name since I would like to see him back next season. He may have safely passed through waivers once this year, but I would not count on that happening again. Given the choice between watching Nic Dowd and Boucher, I would rather have Boucher in that 13th forward slot.
Jake Virtanen might get a decent raise after this season, perhaps something similar to Markus Granlund’s bridge deal. Speaking of Granlund, this was not the year for him to play poorly. Granlund is eligible for salary arbitration, but he doesn’t have a case for a substantial raise. Then again, Jim Benning is a soft negotiator, so who knows how that turns out?
Sven Baertschi
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Sven Baertschi will not accept that qualifying offer. He’s playing better than a $2 million winger. However, Jim Benning should be concerned about a couple of things.
With someone like Sam Gagner on the roster, the floor for Baertschi’s next deal is set. $3.15 million per year isn’t too expensive, but Baertschi’s camp may feel that cap hit starting with a four is more appropriate. Baertschi has received an offensive boost from playing with Bo Horvat for the last three years and Brock Boeser this year.
Benning will have to go to arbitration with Baertschi. It’s a nasty process for everyone involved and no one feels good about it after. Benning will have to explain to Baertschi why he isn’t good enough for the money he is asking. The misery of arbitration can avoided with a trade.
If the team was more proactive and aggressive, they could have taken advantage of the trade deadline and moved Baertschi for a top-90 pick. I don’t think it would have difficult, but the Canucks can’t keep waiting for deals to fall in their lap. They need to take the initiative.
The early returns look good for Brendan Leipsic. He may very well turn out just like Sven Baertschi and being around two and a half years younger, makes more sense as a complimentary piece going forward.
Baertschi turns 26 this October. He is hitting the stage of his career where what you see is what you get. Leipsic is closer in age to Horvat and Boeser and is still cost-controlled, unlike Baertschi. It would help the Canucks to move Baertschi at the draft and free up a roster spot. Because, I haven’t even talked about 22 and 33 and we already have 13 players for 13 spots.
Unrestricted free agents the Canucks need to walk away from
For brevity, I won’t bother with the players in the minors at this time. There are only two UFA’s that the Canucks won’t need for next year. Nic Dowd is one of them and Jussi Jokinen is another. I don’t understand why people can’t grasp that Jokinen was a negative asset in the Vanek trade. The Canucks are his fourth team THIS YEAR! Nobody wanted Jokinen. That’s why he passed through waivers without a peep.
If Jokinen is brought back next year, then the competition for a roster spot is really about who can be the warmest body. When the competition is this easy to beat, it’s not a contest. It’s a bunch of filler that masquerades as depth. I am unconvinced that a competition between mediocre fringe NHL players is something to boast about.
Nic Dowd doesn’t move the needle in any meaningful way. He’s just another spare part collected by this team over the years. If the Canucks do waste a contract slot on him, I hope they don’t bring back Jayson Megna at the very least. There are enough people taking up contract slots in this organization.
Darren Archibald
Darren Archibald is just one of those feel good stories. He’s the underdog that you want to root for. Archibald checks the boxes we want in a role player. He defends, he plays with pace, his physical game is a treat to watch and he provides that sandpaper this lineup needs.
I like guys like Archibald because he is walking proof that you don’t have to spend $2-3 million on toughness. And I am glad that the Canucks were able to look within and find that toughness after the unfortunate early retirement of Derek Dorsett. The Canucks can bring him back for cheap and I don’t have an issue with his return.
The Sedins
Now, the most interesting part. For the record, I would like Henrik and Daniel Sedin to return next season. It looks like they are on pace to crack 50 points each and at the moment, Daniel has 21 goals. I don’t think they will duplicate this season next year, but they are showing they still have more to give.
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You can look at it from the angle of mentoring Elias Pettersson or perhaps that the Sedins are still top five forwards on this team. When Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi went down, it wasn’t just Brock Boeser who stepped up. Henrik and Daniel were keeping this team afloat, even if their goalies made that job difficult every now and then.
There is all this debate about how much the Sedins should get, but I say, Who cares? I don’t think they are making $7 million each next season, but they are certainly not signing for $3 million. They have a smart agent and his clients are not getting short-changed. Personally, I think they settle around the $4-5 million range on a one-year deal. And honestly, that’s fine.
If you think they don’t deserve the money they are getting, how dare you? That four year deal in 2013 was the first time in their careers were they finally got paid. And significant amount of that was donated to charity. This team is struggling and that is not in anyway due to the Sedins making $7 million each.
The team is not in a cap crunch because of the Sedins. That’s on Jim Benning. And if anything, limiting the amount of cap space he can work with is a benefit. If this team is going to end up in the same place next year (which they will), I would rather see Henrik and Daniel over the next Sam Gagner or God forbid, Loui Eriksson.
The Rookies and the final forward count
Lastly, we have to account for Adam Gaudette and Elias Pettersson. If we add them to the count, assuming Archibald and the Sedins are brought back. that’s 18 forwards for 13 roster spots. From the already under contract pool, seven of those players are locks with Goldobin and Motte on the bubble. If Benning is worried about losing Motte on waivers, then I would advise to sit and keep his waiver ineligibility. For counting purposes, let’s say Goldy holds a spot to make it 8.
Unless Baertschi or Granlund are moved, there are three forwards from the RFA pool to make 11. I think Boucher is on the outside looking in. I wouldn’t make it that way, but this is what will happen. The Sedins and Archibald bring that total to 14, leaving Gaudette and Pettersson on the bubble.
Based on this, Gaudette will be in Utica. I have a feeling that the team will try to sneak Boucher through and assign Motte. The real interesting question will be if Goldobin is kept over Pettersson because they don’t want to lose Goldy for nothing. It wouldn’t be the first time the Canucks sent a promising player down to keep someone off waivers. Just look at Troy Stecher’s rookie season.
And if the Canucks are so worried about Goldobin, I wonder which of Brendan Gaunce of Darren Archibald would be sent down? It’s an intriguing scenario and the tough decisions can be avoided through some well timed trades.
What to do, what to do?
I would focus on moving Baertschi and pray that the Eriksson rumour has legs. Another option is to waive Granlund, especially if he has a lackluster training camp. That throws another interesting wrench in the works, but I doubt the Canucks are willing to do that. Again, the Vancouver Canucks have to be proactive. You can’t expect the rest of the league to do the work for you.
This season isn’t even over and it appears that there are already new problems on the horizon next year for Jim Benning’s Vancouver Canucks. His team is lacking draft picks and may have some opportunities to acquire them.
Next: 3 takeaways from 2-1 loss to the Coyotes
The team needs to take some chances because playing it safe won’t work. If the plan is to bring back most of this year’s roster, then don’t be surprised if we are talking about the 28th place Vancouver Canucks by this time next year. The parallels to groundhog day are incredible. Perhaps the Canucks are just waiting for the morning when they wake up and things are different. Maybe its time to actually do something.