Vancouver Canucks: Adam Gaudette’s options with the club

Vancouver Canucks fans are excited by Adam Gaudette’s spectacular season. Many are already assuming he will sign with the team this year, but the young centre will have multiple options to choose from. I wouldn’t assume anything just yet.

With another Vancouver Canucks season already in the toilet, we get to once again look forward to the draft and impending game of suffering known as the Draft Lottery. Perhaps this is the year when the Canucks draft first overall. But that is still a couple of months away. The Canucks won’t be very active at this year’s Trade Deadline, so let’s check in with one of the team’s most exciting prospects.

Currently, Adam Gaudette leads the NCAA in scoring and set a Northeastern record for most power play goals in their NCAA career. You can learn more about his performance in the prospect report tomorrow. I want to take a different approach with Gaudette. Canucks are salivating at the chance to see him play with the team during the final stretch of games left in the season.

The NCAA uses single-game elimination matches as opposed to the longer, multi-game playoffs we see in other leagues. They do a good job explaining how the tournament works in their Road to the Championship when you look for information about the Frozen Four. To sum it up, 16 teams make the tournament. Six are the champions of each division and the next 10 are picked by a special committee.

However, the uncertainty around the NCAA D1 Ice Hockey Tournament will make it difficult to know when exactly Gaudette can join the team. We can discuss the different windows he will be available to sign in broad and more specific scenarios.

Scenario 1: Northeastern does not qualify for the tournament

Northeastern has three more games to play before their regular season conludes on February 24. I am writing this before their game against Vermont on the Saturday, but the team is currently ranked 3rd in the Hockey East Division. They will have a bye going into the Hockey East Tournament. If they win that, they go straight to the big NCAA D1 tournament.

Even if they don’t win the division, there is still a good chance of being selected by the committee. After all, Gaudette and his teammate Dylan Sikura are sitting on top of the NCAA stats page. Additionally, winning this year’s Beanpot Tournament could be another factor in their favour.

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For the purpose of this scenario, let’s say Northeastern does not qualify. The earliest Gaudette would be available is after the NCAA unveils the championship on March 18. He could choose to sign with the Canucks and have up to 10 remaining NHL games to play in. This entry-level contract (ELC) would be three years long due to Article 9.1 of the CBA (Gaudette is in his 21-year-old season).

His amount of playing time is dependent on Travis Green, but with that many games left, he should definitely play in a few of them in this scenario. Regardless of how many games he plays in, Gaudette would burn the first year of his contract much like Brock Boeser did last season.

One important thing to note is that any scenario of Gaudette signing is after the trade deadline. This means that if signs with the Canucks, he can’t be sent down to Utica for any potential playoff games. Utica is currently holding a spot in the playoffs. They have a good shot at staying there.

There is the argument for him to sign a tryout with Utica and get the chance to play more minutes in more games, including playoffs. It could be a better option for his development and he can sign with the Canucks at the end of Utica’s season. I just don’t know if Gaudette’s camp would be receptive to the AHL because they don’t burn a year off of the ELC.

Scenario 2: Northeastern participates

Regional games for this tournament take place on March 23-25. This is a similar situation to the first scenario, except there are only 7 NHL games left on the Canucks schedule at this point in time.

I am sure the Canucks would be thrilled if Gaudette joined Utica down the stretch, but it is clear he wants to play in the NHL. Burning that first year of his entry level deal gets him closer to his next NHL contract more quickly, taking some of the financial control from the team.

If a team is smart with how they manage the cap, this should not be a problem. Getting to that new contract quickly is a double-edged sword. The common pro of this choice is getting a larger payday earlier. ELC’s are maxed out at $925 000 per season, plus any performance/signing bonuses. Most new players won’t make significantly more money until after that three-year waiting period.

However, there are some shortcomings when trying to expedite the process. One fewer year on your ELC gives you less time to prove to the team that you deserve a significant raise. If you are spending that ELC in the AHL, you won’t have much of an argument to earn more than your qualifying offer. Couple that with the fact that this player would not have any RFA arbitration rights, the team would have all the leverage in negotiations.

A smart team should know how to maintain this leverage, even if a particular player is exceptional. That’s were agents come in. These people are good at what they do. Compare contracts around the league. It feels like they understand the CBA better than some NHL General Managers.

Agents can only do the job so well. It will take negotiating with a gullible GM to reward an underwhelming performance. Gaudette’s camp could always use the risk of returning to the NCAA for his senior year, but I don’t think that is likely during this window. However, I am sure they will make it clear that Gaudette wants to play in the NHL this season.

Scenario 3: Northeastern makes the Frozen Four

If Northeastern can manage to win their regional semi-final and final game, they will advance to the coveted Frozen Four. Should this happen, there is little to no chance that you see Gaudette in a Canucks uniform this year.

Those games take place on April 5 and 7, which coincide with the Canucks final games of the season. Even if Northeastern lost the first game, Gaudette would have to fly from Minnesota to Vancouver, rest one day and play on the Saturday. I don’t think Travis Green is going to play him, given how he has treated young players this year. However, it’s the final game of the season, so I guess anything can happen since the Canucks will be in the basement regardless.

In my opinion, if Gaudette is playing in the Frozen Four, I don’t think we will see him this year. He would have two options after qualifying for the finals. First, he could head to Utica to finish the AHL season and hopefully play in the postseason. Second, he could return to Northeastern for his senior year and plan to join the Canucks at the end of that season.

Read this carefully before you panic

The NCAA often has players joining the league in their early 20’s as opposed to 18 or 19. Education is an important aspect, which is why few players forego their scholarships after the first year at college.

By going with option two, Gaudette could complete his degree during a regular school year and not have to take summer courses like Thatcher Demko. Gaudette would also be 22 according to the CBA and would receive a two-year ELC instead of three years. By joining the team in the following season, he would burn off the first year, leaving one year left.

There are the same pros and cons as listed in Scenario 2. I would say there is a lot of risk going down this route. If Gaudette is not as ready for the NHL as he believes, he will be locked down with a bridge deal and miss out on his first big contract. Secondly, Canucks fans are going to have a panic attack. Hockey fans are not the most patient group and Canucks fans are no exception. If anything, they are more volatile.

People will fear that Gaudette is going to screw over his drafted team, just like Jimmy Vesey, Justin Schultz, Alex Kerfoot and Will Butcher. If you are in this camp, I suggest you calm down. Gaudette has said multiple times that he plans on staying with the team that drafted him.

Next: Canucks are looking at Max Domi and Tobias Rieder

All I am saying is that I can understand why he would choose to return for his fourth year if Northeastern makes the Frozen Four. He is choosing what is best for him. It would make sense if he is thinking about his career in the NHL and after it. Gaudette is a smart guy. He won’t make these decisions with malicious intent. And don’t panic because he grew up a Bruins fan. Brock Boeser grew up as a Blackhawks fan and still signed with this team.