Vancouver Canucks roundtable: Debating a Matt Duchene trade
A possible Matt Duchene trade to the Vancouver Canucks has picked up steam again. The Canuck Way staff weighs on whether or not the front office should make a move for the Colorado Avalanche star.
The Vancouver Canucks could undoubtedly use a bonafide scorer to help them accelerate this rebuild, though general manager Jim Benning hasn’t been the type to deal away young assets for a quick fix.
There is always the trade market, however. And the rumors of this team possibly going after Matt Duchene of the Colorado Avalanche will not go away.
As everyone knows, Duchene has been the subject of trade rumors since the Avalanche played through an extremely frustrating 2016-17 season, but general manager Joe Sakic hasn’t found anyone to meet his high asking price. The search for a Duchene trade goes on.
But could Benning and the Canucks make a play for the 26-year-old? Over the weekend, Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet had this to say:
The feeling now is perhaps maybe Vancouver getting in the mix and a lot of talk about [Olli] Juolevi, who also went in the same year at the draft as Sergachev but does not carry that same type of feeling that this guy is ready to play just yet. So until Joe Sakic hits that home run, Matt Duchene may have to wait a little longer.”
So here we are once again. The Avalanche continue to delay an inevitable Duchene trade, while reports of the Canucks possibly inquiring won’t go away. Our staff at The Canuck Way decided it was a good time to debate whether or not a trade makes sense.
First, a look at the folks who aren’t on Team Trade For Duchene.
Alex Hoegler
The Canucks shouldn’t trade for Duchene because of of the price, first and foremost. Sakic is obviously asking for a lot — at least three young assets. So the rebuilding Canucks — with limited prospects and picks — should give those up for a guy who’s at best a 25-goal, 50-point guy? I just don’t see it.
Duchene is also only under contract next season. What if the Canucks trade for him and he signs elsewhere in 2019 ? Vancouver is building up a nice group of young forwards that share Duchene’s skill set. He’s a good player, but he’s not the only missing piece in this team’s quest to rebuild into a championship contender.
Scott Rosenhek
Jim Benning should stay as far away from Matt Duchene as possible. The disgruntled Colorado forward will be 27 in January and only has this year and next left on his deal.
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His current cap hit is $6 million and he will want a pay raise, regardless of how his play has dropped off.
If you think the Loui Eriksson contract was bad, then this future contract could be disastrous. I would rather use the cap space from the Sedins’ future retirement to bring in better UFAs and sign our existing young core.
Having to move a first round pick and Olli Juolevi would be the silliest thing this management group has done, which is saying a lot. The Canucks blue line is in shambles and the prospect pipeline on defence is very thin after Juolevi. A move like this could once again set back the Canucks in their “rebuild.”
If a trade like this happens, the Canucks are putting a band-aid on a problem they have failed to address: a successor for Henrik Sedin. Trading for Duchene tells Bo Horvat that the team does not believe in him, despite his new contract. If Duchene is a stop gap centre until Bo is ready, then that is one expensive price to pay. Matt Duchene does not turn this team into a playoff contender.
He may look good now, but he has a shooting percentage of 16.7, well above his career average of 12.2. His stats will even out as the season goes on. Last season, he had a goals for percentage of 35 at even strength! I don’t think Duchene will be as bad this year, but he won’t be worth the price of acquiring him.
Tyler Shipley
This would be a bad move, unless Duchene came cheap (which he won’t). Most of the rumours suggest it will take at least Juolevi and a pick to get Duchene, and this doesn’t make sense for the Canucks right now.
Defence is Vancouver’s weakest link, with a depth chart that absolutely plummets after Chris Tanev and Alexander Edler. The prospect pool on the back end doesn’t look great either. So Juolevi didn’t have a great camp. Okay that happens. It’s not reason enough to give up on the best defensive prospect in our system, when what we desperately need are blue chip defenders to replace Tanev and Edler.
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As for Duchene, how does he fit in a rebuild? He’s too old to be part of the youth movement; by the time Elias Pettersson and Jonathan Dahlen are established NHL players he will be well into his 30s.
He will be a UFA at the end of next season; will the Canucks plan to re-sign him? Another massive contract for a veteran player, because that worked out well with Brandon Sutter and Eriksson. Or would we trade him for assets? Which begs the question why give up assets in the first place?!
It doesn’t make sense. Duchene is a good player but he doesn’t fit into the Canucks’ plans right now.
Why Canucks should acquire Duchene
Trading for Duchene comes with plenty of benefits, however. He’s one of the game’s top skaters and brings a great set of wheels — coming the Canucks could easily use more of. Duchene is usually good for 20 goals and 50-60 points a season when healthy, too.
Now, these two gentlemen would like to make their cases as to why Benning should make the move for Duchene.
Andrew Nazareth
I think that Jim Benning should absolutely try and acquire Matt Duchene. But what about the “rebuild”, this new word that Vancouverites are throwing out like Halloween candy? Well, rebuilds are unpredictable and it may take a while to become competitive again.
People point to the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs rebuild as blueprints for the Canucks to follow. Its hard to follow winning a lottery and getting to draft the two best players in the world. Leaving your team’s fate to chance is a poor way to rebuild your team.
The Canucks have never drafted first overall, and if the last two draft lotteries are any indication, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a Canucks lottery win. The team needs a bonafide number one centre to alleviate some of the offensive pressure off Bo Horvat, and Matt Duchene is just the guy to do it.
If I were Jim Benning, I would offer the Colorado Avalanche Brandon Sutter, Olli Juolevi, and a 1st round pick (with a condition the Canucks get to choose whether it be 2019 or 2020) for Matt Duchene. The Canucks would have to move another player in a separate deal to be cap compliant, but besides that this deal could work.
What the Avalanche lack is a centreman who can be used in primarily in a shutdown role. Brandon Sutter is a good centreman who has been trusted by most of his coaches, analytics be damned. Coaches love him and that’s what makes him valuable. Plus, Sutter can also chip in offensively from time to time and can be used in all situations.
Olli Juolevi is exactly the type of defenseman the Avalanche need. The Avs are not looking for an offensive minded defenceman prospect like a Mikhail Sergachev, they have offensive defenceman in Tyson Barrie and university stud Cale Makar.
They need someone who can compliment them in the defensive end, and have the similar wherewithal to move the puck up ice quickly to the forward. Juolevi can absolutely be that guy. He would be a great fit because there would be no pressure for him to produce offensively, while he can do what he does best; getting the puck out of his own zone. Would it set back the Canucks defensive prospect pool? Absolutely it would, but the Canucks can acquire defensive prospects through other means.
Matt Duchene would provide the Canucks an instant number one centre, who could potentially form a fantastic duo with Brock Boeser. Additionally, Duchene’s presence would make Horvat the second line centre and allow him to have more favourable matchups.
With the presence of Duchene, the Canucks would have no reason to retain the Sedins (giving them fourteen million dollars in cap space to play with) and can keep Elias Pettersson another year in Sweden to really tear the barn doors off the Swedish Elite League. It would also generate healthy competition between Markus Granlund and Adam Gaudette for the third line role.
Say if Duchene doesn’t want to stay with the Canucks at next year’s trade deadline? Then ship him off to the highest bidder. With the Canucks having ample cap space to retain salary, they could get a princely return for him and essentially recoup some (or more, if him and Boeser produce) the assets they paid. Not to mention having Duchene would put more butts in seats at Rogers Arena.
David Joun
I may be stating the obvious but Duchene is a first-line centre with the speed and skillset that are superior to Horvat’s. Duchene has defensive upsides as well and he is a force that drives possession and wins faceoffs. Even when the Avalanche had a historically low year last year, Duchene managed a positive Corsi For% and is also building on that this year with a +9.5 relative Corsi For%.
He has never had a below-even year in the faceoffs aside from his rookie season. He was an astounding 62.6% last year and is 54.4% successful this year already. The Canucks can justify his acquisition as an addition of speed, skill and defensive prowess.
Three years of Duchene (until he is 30 years old) as 1C and Horvat as 2C is an intriguing idea until Pettersson jumps in. We should also note that Pettersson might now have to be considered as a winger and not a centre. He has not played down the middle in the SHL this season.
The cost of Duchene is both a good and a bad point for the Canucks. The rumoured cost for Duchene – a top prospect, a 1st round pick, and a roster player – is too much for the Canucks to give up if Juolevi is involved. A Canucks 1st-round pick is also likely a top-ten/top-five pick in the coming drafts so that is also too much to give up for Duchene.
But the fact that the Canucks are right up against the cap and cannot take on Duchene’s $6M contract means that they will have to send that much salary back to Colorado. A Canuck roster player earning that type of money? Only the Sedins, Loui Eriksson, Bo Horvat make over $5M a year.
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My general offer:
And that concludes our roundtable for the Vancouver Canucs possibly trading for Matt Duchene. We’re sure the rumors and reports are far from over, so we’ll just have to play the waiting game to see if Duchene does join the west coast.
