Justin Almeida may be a long shot for the draft, but he could certainly be a pick that pays off for the Vancouver Canucks in the future.
The NHL draft turns into a total crapshoot no later than the fourth round, so the Vancouver Canucks better hope their scouting staff did a good job. Because if they did, they could well end up with some late-round steals.
Now when I say late-round steal, I’m not necessarily talking about the Patric Hornqvists, Henrik Zetterbergs and Joe Pavelskis of this world. Simply getting a player that makes the NHL full time would be a huge success. That’s pretty much the only goal late in the draft.
One of the players that might have a shot at making it is WHL forward Justing Almeida, although he has a long way ahead of him, and is not a lock to be drafted at all.
Name: Justin Almeida
Position: Center
Shoots: Left
Birthdate: 1999-02-06
Height, weight: 5’10”, 163 lbs
Team, league: Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL
Stats (from eliteprospects.com):
G
A
P
PIM
+/-
7011172810-5
Rankings: –
Risk, Reward: 1/5, 2.5/5
NHL-potential: Bottom-six forward
Draft Range: Seventh round
Strengths
Justin Almeida was the Prince George Cougars’ fifth-overall selection in the 2014 WHL Bantam Draft, but never managed to become an impact player for the club. As a result, he was traded to the Moose Jaw Warriors midway through the year. His production there improved a little bit, but 15 points in 33 games still don’t seem great for a 5-foot-10 center. So what is it that makes him a draft candidate?
One of his biggest standout attributes is his skating. Almeida has incredibly quick and agile feet, allowing him to gain separation from opponents in no time. His feet not only allow him to be creative in the offensive zone and aggressive on the forecheck, but he is also quick on the backcheck and an effective penalty-killer.
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Offensively, Almeida displays all the necessary tools. He can play creative, accurate passes to set up teammates for chances, but he possesses an excellent release and heavy shot as well. With that, Almeida can develop into an all-around player offensively while playing a 200-foot game and killing penalties.
Almeida can be used in all situations, and has been used on both special teams with both of his clubs this season. If he develops a bit of an edge to his game and plays a little meaner and grittier, he could develop into the kind of bottom-six forward coaches love and opposing teams hate.
Weaknesses
Almeida has some tools. But despite being put in a position to succeed in Moose Jaw, where he got ice time with some of the team’s best forwards, he never managed to produce consistently. His 28 points in 70 games just aren’t enough — there’s no way to sugarcoat it. If he wants to make it to the NHL, he will have to improve. A lot.
Secondly, given the type of player he is, Almeida will need to get a lot stronger. There are some shorter bottom-six players in the NHL, who succeed thanks to their speed and work ethic; so Almeida has that going for him. But, a 5-foot-10, 165-pound player is going to have a bad time playing against bigger competition.
Overall, teams might just not be convinced that Almeida brings enough to the table. He has no elite traits and nothing that really stands out beside his skating. But, that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to develop his tools into an effective all-around game soon enough.
Final Thoughts
I have liked Almeida ever since I first saw him in Prince George in 2015. To be honest, I expected him to be more of an impact player by now. But knowing his tools, especially his skating ability, there is no reason to believe he can’t make it to the NHL level.
Almeida will never be a top-line scorer — at least I’d be extremely surprised if he was (and I wouldn’t be the only one). So, if teams want to go for high-ceiling guys with each one of their picks, keeping in mind that there is an abundance of bottom-six free agents available every year, they probably won’t go for Almeida.
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If a team sees how the game has changed over the past years, however, believing Almeida is the prototypical modern bottom-six prospect, he will certainly be an option. For the Canucks, Almeida will be an option in the seventh round.
I have no idea if he will be on their final list. But I do know he’s on mine.