Vancouver Canucks Will Probably Finish in 28th Place in NHL

The Vancouver Canucks will need both the Devils and Coyotes to pass them to finish 29th, and based on the three teams’ schedules, it probably won’t happen.

Thursday night, the Vancouver Canucks were officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Unofficially, fans and management both ceased talking about the playoffs a while ago. Since then, the focus has shifted to how close to the bottom they could finish. Could they, in fact, fall to 29th and secure the second-best lottery odds after the Colorado Avalanche?

The Detroit Red Wings and Dallas Stars are both only two points ahead of the Canucks. There is a chance that either could lose enough down the stretch to pass Vancouver in the lottery race. However, the Wings have a game in hand against Vancouver, and the Stars have been playing better lately. (Better than the Canucks, at any rate).

So, for now, let’s ignore the two teams above them, and look at the two teams the Canucks are currently chasing for 29th overall.  That would be the New Jersey Devils and the Arizona Coyotes.

Here is how I project them to finish, based on the strength of their schedules:

27. New Jersey Devils

The Devils have by far the easily schedule of the three teams:

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• Carolina Hurricanes
• Dallas Stars
• Winnipeg Jets
• New York Islanders (twice)
• Philadelphia Flyers (twice)
• Pittsburgh Penguins
• Detroit Red Wings

Of their nine remaining games, only one is against a Stanley Cup contender — that being the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Four of their other games against teams that are well out of the playoffs. These are winnable games, even the offense-starved Devils.

They also play two games each against the Islanders and Flyers, who are bubble teams fighting for the last wild card spot. With good performances from Cory Schneider,  it isn’t hard to imagine New Jersey pulling off a split in both of those.

The Devils have the softest schedule, and have a fairly clear path to 27th place.

28. Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks also have nine games remaining:

• Minnesota Wild
• Winnipeg Jets
• Anaheim Ducks
• Los Angeles Kings
• San Jose Sharks (twice)
• Arizona Coyotes
• Edmonton Oilers (twice)

Three of their games are against Cup contenders: Saturday’s game against the Wild, plus two against the Sharks (and Jannik Hansen!). On the other hand, two of their games are against teams that are well outside the playoff picture.

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In between, they face divisional opponents. Vancouver have won and lost games to the Ducks, Kings and Oilers this season. It’s possible they could lose all of these games, intentionally or unintentionally. But it’s equally possible they could win more than their fair share of them.

Most likely, they will manage to back themselves into enough wins to keep ahead of the Coyotes.

29. Arizona Coyotes

As it stands, the Coyotes only need to earn five measly points to pass the Canucks. Easy right?

Well, no. For starters, they have only eight games left to earn those five extra points. And a quick look at the Coyotes schedule is enough to dash our hopes of 29th place. Here are their remaining opponents:

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• Washington Capitals (twice)
• St. Louis Blues (twice)
• Los Angeles Kings
• Dallas Stars
• Vancouver Canucks
• Minnesota Wild

Five of Arizona’s eight games come against legitimate contenders. Twice, they take on the Capitals, who are challenging for a second straight President’s Trophy. Another two games come against the Blues, who are among the hottest teams in the league since the All Star break. And the Wild are up to 94 points in a tough Central Division.

Remember, to finish 29th the Canucks don’t just need Arizona to earn five points. They need the Coyotes to pick up five more points than Vancouver.

Even if we predict the Coyotes beating Vancouver, Dallas and Los Angeles, the Canucks would have to lose all their remaining games to fall to 29th. And all but one of losses would have to come in regulation.

Of course, there is certainly the possibility that Arizona can catch the Capitals, Blues or Wild on an off-night. But, there’s an equal chance the Canucks could do the same to the Wild or Sharks.

Vancouver still have Willie Desjardins, who is coaching for his job. They still have veteran goaltender Ryan Miller, who keeps facing 40+ shots and stealing games for his team. And they still have Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin, who refuse to allow their teammates to become content with losing hockey games.

Everything we’ve seen from the Canucks this year suggests that will win enough games to keep themselves out of 29th place. At their worst, they went on a nine-game losing streak in late October/ early November. But at their best, they earned 19 points in 12 games right after Christmas.

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Add it all up, and you get a team that will lose a lot — but never quite enough. For the second year in a row, the Vancouver Canucks will finish 28th overall.

But at least they made EA Sports and USA Today look silly in the process.