Vancouver Canucks: Winning Streak a Result of Luck

The Vancouver Canucks are on a six-game winning streak. But are they really playing better or is this nothing more than a product of puck luck?

For most of the 2016-17 season, the Vancouver Canucks have struggled to score. Free-agent signee Loui Eriksson did not have the impact management had hoped for, and the rest of the team was never expected to score much anyway. So what is it that suddenly allows the Canucks to not only score goals, but actually win several games in a row?

There seems to be an easy answer to that question, but it is probably not the one fans would hope for.

Change in PDO

As analytics writer Sean Tierney notes, Vancouver’s Corsi differential hasn’t changed much compared to pre-winning streak games. The Canucks aren’t shooting more than before and they haven’t gotten better at preventing shot attempts either.

What has changed, however, are the shooting and save percentages that, combined, build PDO, an indicator for team luck. In other words, the Canucks have gotten luckier than they were before their winning streak.

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With that established, there is one extremely important question: Are the Canucks above-average lucky now or did they suffer from above-average bad luck before?

This is where things get tricky.

In Friday’s 4-2 win against the Calgary Flames, the Canucks were out-Corsied 61-19 in five-on-five situations, resulting in an xGF (expected goals) of 2.05 for the Flames and 1.15 for the Canucks. Yet, Vancouver scored more goals and won — thanks to a shooting percentage of 27.27 and a save percentage of 97.06.

A single-game PDO of 124.33 indicates the Canucks simply had a ton of luck. Nothing more.

In the game prior, a 3-0 win against the Arizona Coyotes, the Canucks scored on just 10 percent of their shots. However, Ryan Miller recorded a shutout, again creating a “lucky outcome” with a PDO of 110.

Yet, Vancouver currently ranks 16th in the league with a PDO of 99.85 — overall, they are neither above-average lucky nor unlucky.

The only change has happened in recent games, where the Canucks managed to score more on the chances they got, while surrendering relatively few goals against.

Meanwhile, the shot rate stayed the same.

Shot Attempts

As you can see in the chart by Micah Blake McCurdy above, the Canucks have experienced a recent move even deeper into the “dull” corner. They don’t surrender many shot attempts against, but they also don’t shoot much.

While a “dull” style of hockey — with few shot attempts by either team — is not exactly fun to watch, it isn’t bad for the team. The Canucks have been outshot in three of six games on their winning streak, but generally play low-shot-event hockey overall.

Conclusion

Over the past six games, you might have noticed that the Canucks didn’t really play better hockey than before. Yet, for some reason, they started to win games.

When everything stays the same but the outcome changes, the reason is usually better luck, which is exactly what we can expect in the Canucks’ case.

But, don’t get this the wrong way. In no way does it mean the Canucks don’t deserve to be winning. Looking at the full season, the Canucks are exactly where they should be — if we trust PDO, anyway.

Over the past 10 games, the Canucks have gotten luckier and luckier. But, before that, they could be considered quite unlucky. In total, that puts them at their overall PDO of 99.85. There will be a crash, but there also will be luckier times again.

So far, the Vancouver Canucks have won 20 of their 41 games. If they continue to play the way they have been playing, they could end up with 40 wins at the end of the season.

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Whether those come in winning and losing streaks or simply alternating single wins and losses does not make a difference. It is the eventual outcome that matters. Everything in between is mostly just varying luck.

*Stats via corsica.hockey