Vancouver Canucks: NHL Projections for Top 10 Prospects
The Vancouver Canucks’ prospect pool is the deepest it’s been in quite some time. But when will we see that talent in the NHL?
Between March and the 2016 NHL Draft, we saw a lot of change in our site’s prospect rankings. Part of the reason was that our staff changed a bit during that time, but changes also occurred in the Vancouver Canucks’ prospect pool. In the end, goaltending prospect Thatcher Demko won the top spot, with 2016 pick Olli Juolevi and forward Brock Boeser following closely behind.
But there is one important question we didn’t answer: when will these players be full-time NHL players?
I want to emphasise that we are talking about full-time NHL players here. When a prospect is projected to be NHL-ready in 2018, that doesn’t mean he won’t get a few call-ups before then. Teams always try to bring players along slowly by giving them a few games in the NHL before they are really ready to make an impact.
So, here is our Vancouver Canucks top-10 prospect ranking once again. Only this time, I brought projections for when each player will be ready for the National Hockey League.
Next: Thatcher Demko
1. G Thatcher Demko
Acquired: Drafted 36th overall, 2014
NHL: 2018-19
Canucks Nation sighed in relief when the Canucks announced the signing if goaltending prospect Thatcher Demko. After what the club has been through with Roberto Luongo, Cory Schneider, Eddie Lack, Ryan Miller and now Jacob Markstrom, we can only hope Demko solves all goaltending issues for at least a decade. To do that, he obviously has to make the NHL first.
In 2015-16, Demko was a Hobey Baker Award finalist and won the Mike Richter Award as the top collegiate goaltender. He had an outstanding .935 save percentage through 39 games with Boston College and is without a doubt ready for pro hockey.
Read More: Canucks Goalie Future — Demko vs. Garteig
But, prospects take time, and especially goalies need time to adjust to different levels of play. In the 2016-17 season, Demko will likely split time with Richard Bachman before becoming the full-time starter in 2017-18. If everything goes as planned, he will then be in the NHL in 2018-19.
For now, the Canucks are set with Miller and Markstrom splitting time. In 2017-18, Markstrom should be ready to start, with either Bachman or a free-agent signing as the backup. That way, Demko can step in as Markstrom’s backup in 2018 and be brought along slowly. But, there is always the chance of Demko outplaying everyone else before 2018.
Next: Olli Juolevi
2. D Olli Juolevi
Acquired: Drafted 5th overall, 2016
NHL: 2017-18
With the fifth-overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, the Canucks made sure they got a blue-chip prospect on defense, after picking up goaltender Demko and forward Brock Boeser in previous years. Juolevi is confident that he can make the NHL roster out of training camp in his first year, but that is probably not a realistic scenario.
In 2015-16, Juolevi won every big title there is to win in junior hockey. The Ontario Hockey League championship, the Memorial Cup, the World Junior Championship. There really isn’t much left to gain for the 18-year-old Finn. But yet, he is expected to go back to play another season with the OHL London Knights — because it’s the only option.
Read More: Why Olli Juolevi Was a Great Pick
Every year, there are prospects who would be best off playing in the American Hockey League, but they aren’t allowed, thanks to the NHL’s agreement with the Canadian Hockey League. Juolevi is ready to play pro hockey, but it’s probably not enough to make the NHL yet. A year of seasoning in the AHL would be perfect.
Instead, we will likely see an Ivan Provorov scenario. The Philadelphia Flyers’ seventh-overall pick from 2015 was sent back to junior for the 2015-16 campaign, won the WHL championship, recorded the most points by a WHL defenseman, and was named top defenseman in both the WHL and CHL. He is now expected to join the Flyers’ blue line in the NHL. Juolevi will hopefully be ready for Vancouver after a dominant OHL year as well.
Next: Brock Boeser
3. RW Brock Boeser
Acquired: Drafted 23rd overall, 2015
NHL: 2017-18
Unlike Juolevi, Boeser already has his draft-plus-one season under his belt. He also seems ready for pro hockey, but opted to play another year at the University of North Dakota in the NCAA.
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Boeser finished the 2015-16 season third in NCAA scoring with 60 points in 42 games as a rookie. Coming from college, he would be eligible for the AHL and could continue his development there, but he wants to take on a leadership role at NoDak instead. It certainly makes sense, but Canucks fans didn’t exactly welcome the decision.
Boeser’s goal scoring ability is exactly what the Canucks are missing right now. He might not have made the team out of training camp, but it would be good to have a scorer ready for call-up. This way, the Canucks have to wait a year to sign him — which they will hopefully do — and he might be ready to jump into the NHL right away.
Next: Jake Virtanen
4. RW Jake Virtanen
Acquired: Drafted 6th overall, 2014
NHL: 2016-17
Having played just 55 games in the NHL, Jake Virtanen still qualified as a rookie in our rankings. He only made No. 4 with an average rank of 3.4, but he is probably the most NHL-ready of them all. Virtanen missed five games during the 2016 World Junior Championship and was a healthy scratch for several others. However, he is one of the Canucks’ top defensive players and, other than his scoring struggles, he had no issues playing against the world’s elite.
Read More: NHL vs. AHL for Jake Virtanen
But yet, Virtanen is not a lock to crack the roster again this season. He has some untouched scoring upside that might be better developed in the AHL, so the Canucks brass will have to make a decision here. Virtanen is without a doubt NHL-ready, but they probably don’t want him to become a bottom-six grinder for his entire career.
If Virtanen stays in the NHL, his development will be heavily influenced by his ice time, usage and line mates. Playing 15 minutes per night with Sven Baertschi and Bo Horvat could be enough to recover his scoring ability. Playing less than 10 minutes on the fourth line for another year could hurt his development forever.
Next: Nikita Tryamkin
5. D Nikita Tryamkin
Acquired: Drafted 66th overall, 2014
NHL: 2016-17
A so-called European assignment clause is perhaps the only reason why Nikita Tryamkin played 13 games in the NHL last season. Ever since being drafted 66th-overall in 2014, Tryamkin said he would only come over to North America if he was guaranteed a spot in the NHL. If the Canucks decide he isn’t ready, he will go back to Russia instead of developing in the AHL.
Read More: Nikita Tryamkin Is the Real Deal
For a European player, that certainly makes sense. If you can play in your home country and be paid a great salary, why would you move across the globe to play minor-league hockey in a foreign country while making less money? For an NHL club, on the other hand, it is obviously a difficult decision.
To be honest, I don’t know whether Tryamkin is ready to play a full season in the NHL. He has all the tools to be successful one day, but it might not be enough to play a major role in the world’s best hockey league just yet. If it wasn’t for his out-clause, I would predict him to start the season with the Utica Comets. But since he does have this clause, I predict him to be NHL-ready in 2016-17 — which is more wishful thinking than an actual prediction.
Next: Brendan Gaunce
6. C Brendan Gaunce
Acquired: Drafted 26th overall, 2012
NHL: 2016-17
Brendan Gaunce spent four season in the OHL and two in the AHL. Aged 21, he finally made his NHL debut and stayed with the big club for 20 games to finish the 2015-16 season. Gaunce was kept of the scoresheet for 19 of those games but looked NHL-ready nonetheless. With a strong training camp this year, he could definitely earn an opening-night roster spot.
Read More: Top 25 Under 25 — #9 Brendan Gaunce
Unfortunately, it is not only about what Gaunce does to earn a spot. The Canucks currently have 11 forwards signed to one-way contracts. Virtanen and Horvat are still on their entry-level deals, but they have a good chance of making the Canucks out of camp as well, which lifts the forward number to 13. With that, Gaunce could easily find himself being the odd man out to start the year.
On the bright side, it looks like the Canucks have solid depth this season. Having NHL-ready prospects in the AHL isn’t a bad thing (well, for the player it is), and Gaunce will certainly get his chance this year. Injuries happen, as we found out last season, and Gaunce should be one of the first call-ups.
Next: Troy Stecher
7. D Troy Stecher
Acquired: Free agency, 2016
NHL: 2017-18
Troy Stecher is an exciting player for the Canucks. He is not only a right-handed two-way defenseman — so exactly what the Canucks want — but he is also proof that Vancouver is a desirable place to be. The Canucks aren’t exactly a Stanley Cup contender right now, but they can still get highly coveted free agents to sign with them.
Stecher is a very skilled defenseman who excels at both ends of the ice. In 2016-17, he will likely play a major role in the Utica Comets’ top four and on one of their power-play units. There are several players ahead of him on the depth chart right now, but he should get a call-up sometime during the season, and might stay up in the NHL for a while.
Read More: Top 25 Under 25 — #16 Troy Stecher
A comparable player is former Columbus Blue Jackets fourth-round pick Mike Reilly, who signed with the Minnesota Wild as an unrestricted free agent last summer. The 23-year-old started the season in the AHL but was later called up to Minnesota. He appeared in 45 AHL games and 29 NHL contests. That is probably what can be expected from Stecher as well.
In 2017-18, Stecher should hopefully be ready to play in Vancouver full-time. However, he will have to compete for a spot with other right-side players like Tryamkin, Alex Biega and Jordan Subban.
Next: Guillaume Brisebois
9. D Jordan Subban
Acquired: Drafted 115th overall, 2013
NHL: 2018-19
Jordan Subban ranked surprisingly low in our prospect ranking. With an average rank of 8.6, he fell from fourth in our March ranking to ninth in the post-draft version. The reason for that is probably the fear of him becoming the next Yannick Weber — or something worse, i.e. a good offensive player who doesn’t make the NHL at all, thanks to defensive deficiencies.
Subban improved a lot over the past season and is no liability defensively. But yet, the fear is always there. There aren’t many 5-foot-9 players in the NHL, especially not defensemen.
Read More: Top 25 Under 25 — #14 Jordan Subban
In 2015-16, Subban recorded 11 goals and 36 points, ranking fifth in Comets scoring as a rookie defenseman. That’s impressive. If he continues that development, it shouldn’t be long before Subban gets to make his NHL debut. Subban is certainly an exciting prospect.
Still, we shouldn’t expect him to be a full-time NHL player before 2018-19. Even that seems a little early.
Next: Michael Garteig
10. G Michael Garteig
Acquired: Free agency, 2016
NHL: 2019-20
Demko was not the only NCAA goalie the Canucks signed this summer, as they also brought in Michael Garteig from Quinnipiac. Garteig was a standout in the 2015-16 season, with a .924 save percentage and a 1.91 goals-against average, as he led his school to an NCAA championship.
Coming into the Canucks organization, however, he will have to start all the way at the bottom again. With Miller and Markstrom in Vancouver and Demko and Bachman in Utica, the organization is set for the 2016-17 campaign. Therefore, Garteig is expected to start the year with the Alaska Aces, Vancouver’s new ECHL affiliate, but might get a chance in Utica as the season progresses.
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According to my timeline presented earlier, a spot in the AHL could open up next season, as Miller is unlikely to be re-signed, and Demko or Bachman could move up to the NHL. In 2018, Demko is expected to move up to the NHL full-time and Bachman’s contract is set to expire, making room for Garteig as the new AHL starter.
Following that season in Utica, Garteig could be ready to play in the NHL. In theory, anyway.