Vancouver Canucks: Why Olli Juolevi is not the No. 1 Prospect
The Vancouver Canucks have a new blue-chip prospect in the system — but is he the new No. 1 prospect for the organization?
While some teams got to stock up their prospect pools with multiple picks in the top-three rounds of the 2016 NHL Draft, the Vancouver Canucks only owned one first and one third. On the bright side, their first pick of the draft was in the top five overall, and they got a potential top-pairing defenseman in Olli Juolevi. The question that remains is: does Juolevi beat goalie Thatcher Demko and Brock Boeser to the No. 1 spot in the system?
Of course that question isn’t necessarily important, as long as all three make the NHL and play important roles for the Vancouver Canucks. Still, it gives us an idea for how strong the club’s prospect pool is, and how bright the future looks in terms of elite prospects.
Going by draft positions only, it is a clear win for Juolevi. But, there is little doubt that all three of the aforementioned players have elite potential. Boeser and Demko were able to really raise their stock over the 2015-16 campaign and look like they could turn out to be big-time steals of their respective draft years.
Back in March, our staff at The Canuck Way discussed all prospects in the system and formed a consensus ranking. At the time, Boeser was the No. 1 with an average rank of 1.7 while Demko came in at No. 2 with an average rank of exactly 2. In the next weeks, we will discuss and re-evaluate those rankings, adding the 2016 draft class.
Of course, we don’t want to make you wait, so let’s discuss who should get the No. 1 spot this time around!
Next: Thatcher Demko
The Case for Thatcher Demko
Thatcher Demko was the second goaltender taken in the 2014 NHL Draft, at 36th overall. While Demko seemed like the most talented of his class, being ranked No. 1 by NHL Central Scouting, the Calgary Flames went with Mason McDonald at 34 instead. Demko would undergo hip surgery in the summer of the draft, so the Flames wanted to be careful. It was a somewhat risky pick for the Canucks, but two years later, it seems safe to say that it paid off.
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In his first post-draft season, Demko posted a 2.19 goals-against average along with a .925 save percentage at Boston College. In the 2015-16 campaign, he improved to a 1.88 goals-against average and a .935 save percentage, as he carried BC to the Frozen Four. His save percentage “only” ranked fourth in the NCAA last season, but those numbers are outstanding — especially for a 20-year-old.
It is impossible to judge a player just based on his stats. There are many, many NCAA goaltenders who posted similar numbers but never went on to play in the NHL. The big difference is that very few of them got to those numbers at the same age as Demko. All three of the goalies that had a better save percentage than Demko in 2015-16 are 22 or older.
At this point, Demko looks like the kind of goalie who can carry his team like Carey Price has been carrying the Montreal Canadiens for the past years. The Canadiens were a sure-fire playoff team last season until Price went down with an injury. Demko could do the same for the Canucks — just hope he stays healthy, unlike Price.
As the Mike Richter Award winner and Hobey Baker Award finalist, Demko will start the 2016-17 campaign with the AHL Utica Comets. If he keeps up his current development pace, we could see him in the NHL very soon. He might at least become the first injury call-up if something happens to Ryan Miller or Jacob Markstrom.
Next: Brock Boeser
The Case for Brock Boeser
One year after selecting Demko, the Canucks made their way back into the playoffs, resulting in a relatively late first-round pick. At 23rd overall, they picked up Brock Boeser of the USHL Waterloo Blackhawks. Boeser was ranked 27th by NHL Central Scouting, but really took off in the 2015-16 season. He joined NCAA North Dakota where he ranked third in league scoring with 27 goals and 60 points in 42 games.
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Like Demko, Boeser chose to stay in the NCAA for a second season after the draft. Since the Canucks are set on the right wing with Jannik Hansen, Jake Virtanen, Derek Dorsett, one of Emerson Etem and Alex Burrows, as well as a possible free-agent signing, that might not be the worst of decisions. That said, the Canucks could really need some scoring help and none of Vancouver’s current right wingers promise to provide that this season.
Unfortunately for Boeser, the rest of his line at NoDak turns pro this year. Center Nick Schmaltz is a Chicago Blackhawks draft pick and will join the club this season while left winger Drake Caggiula signed with the Edmonton Oilers as a free agent. It will be interesting to see how Boeser adjusts to play with new line mates and has the lone star of the team.
Last season, Boeser ranked fourth in goals at 27 — as a rookie. A natural goal scorer, he should get at least the 35 that league leader and Winnipeg Jets prospect Kyle Connor had this year. Since the Canucks tried to get him under contract this summer, we can assume that Jim Benning and Willie Desjardins would rather have Boeser scoring goals for them this season. But, Boeser made a choice and the Canucks have to live with it.
Boeser will most likely turn pro following the 2016-17 campaign. Unless he plays a surprisingly terrible season, he is expected to jump right into the Canucks lineup for 2017-18. There is no doubt that Boeser is Vancouver’s No. 1 forward prospect, as he is the natural goal scorer they wish they had right now. But will he be better than Demko and Juolevi?
Next: Olli Juolevi
The Case for Olli Juolevi
Demko and Boeser were talked about a lot throughout the 2016-17 campaign. Olli Juolevi, on the other hand, is an unknown commodity for many fans. However, even if you don’t know who he is, you can be sure the Canucks got a nice player at fifth overall.
Juolevi is the highest-picked of the group, but that doesn’t automatically make him No. 1. Still, a case can be made for him as well. Juolevi is an extremely smart two-way defenseman who looked like a veteran for most of his rookie season in the Ontario Hockey League. Thanks to his outstanding skating, hockey sense and offensive skill, he has been drawing comparisons to Arizona Coyotes defenseman Oliver Ekman Larsson.
Related: 5 Reasons Why Juolevi Was a Great Pick
In the 2015-16 OHL playoffs, Juolevi recorded three goals and 14 points in 18 games. Furthermore, he notched nine assists in seven games at the World Junior Championship, where he won gold on a team with top-four picks Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi. Juolevi also had seven assists in four games on the road to a Memorial Cup victory. Wherever he goes, he wins — and he is a big part of the reason why.
Just about every team in the NHL is currently looking for a top-pairing defenseman, as they are extremely hard to come by. Just look at the Oilers who are stacked with elite forward talent but have been unable to find defensive help for years. The Canucks now have a top-pairing D-prospect in the system, filling an organizational need.
Juolevi plays a style that should translate very well to the NHL level. He lacks physicality, but can do a lot without it. If he can bulk up over the summer and play a good training camp, he has a good chance to get a nine-game trial to start the season. Alternatively, he could go back to the OHL, dominate for a year, and jump into the NHL a year later — it seems to be working well for Philadelphia Flyers pick Ivan Provorov.
Next: Conclusion
Conclusion
Enough talking — who’s No. 1?
Of course, all I can give you is my personal opinion. To me, it has to be Demko. I am extremely excited about Juolevi and Boeser as well, but nothing beats a franchise goalie like Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist or Pekka Rinne. Demko has a lot to prove until then, but he seems to be on the right way to greatness.
At the end of the day, it depends on what you value most for your franchise. Do you think a top-line scorer is the most important player? Is a top-pairing defenseman more important? Or is an elite goalie what you value most?
Simply looking at the Montreal Canadiens and Carey Price makes me think an elite goaltender is the most important thing. It is obvious that only a team can win the Stanley Cup, not a single player. But, if there is one position that can win the Cup almost single-handedly, it is a goalie. Jonathan Quick and Tim Thomas won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in their respective Stanley Cup seasons, and Price seems to be the only reason why the Canadiens were so successful in the past years.
Next: Canucks Rank 5th in Pacific Division in Draft Performance
As mentioned in the introduction, we will rank all Vancouver Canucks prospects with our staff. I have no clue who will make the race there, but you know who my No. 1 is. In case you care, I have Juolevi second and Boeser third.
But, as I also mentioned before, none of this matters as long as Thatcher Demko, Olli Juolevi and Brock Boeser all make the NHL and stay with the club for a long time. It is great to have an elite prospect on every position.