Vancouver Canucks: Learning the Market for Free Agency
The buyout window is open, the trade market is hot, and the draft is just around the corner for the Vancouver Canucks.
With the offseason transaction window swinging wide open this past week, the Vancouver Canucks seem to be involved in every facet of roster management. The buyouts are happening, the draft is happening, the salaries are getting dumped, and even the UFAs are getting their contracts made into assets.
There really isn’t an offseason for the GMs, eh?
The draft is just one week away. The window for teams to talk with other teams’ UFAs about potential fits is also just one week away. Free agency is two weeks away when the buyout window also closes. Two weeks may sound like a lot of time in the modern NHL, but with so many pieces moving around, GM Jim Benning does not have room for error.
Especially with this year’s draft and free agency gearing up to be one of Vancouver’s finest, the buyout market and the trade market will need to be tested and tested thoroughly to make sure Vancouver does exceptionally well to take advantage of the opportunity.
With Sven Baertschi being resigned on Thursday and the ECHL affiliation being settled with the Alaska Aces, now the club’s absolute top priority should be addressing the buyout, the draft, and all the trade offers that Trader Jim is getting.
Benning had "a lot of calls today" on pick #5. There were "some names in the market place that I hadn't heard before". #Canucks
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 17, 2016
In wrapping up the Free Agency Friday series, let us explore what the Canucks could do in the buyout market, the trade market, and at the draft to set themselves up for a great July 1st.
Here we go, with a projected $7M in cap space as of today. That sum, unlike the ones on most popular cap-tracking websites, includes the load of to-be Canuck, Anton Rodin.
Next: BUYOUTS: The Waiting Game
BUYOUTS: The Waiting Game
By now, most Canucks fans should know that Alex Burrows and Chris Higgins are the two names on the Canucks roster who are being considered for buyouts. The buyout market kicked off with two one-year contracts coming off the board in the Eastern conference.
R.J. Umberger, the former Canuck first-round pick, was bought out by the Philadelphia Flyers this week. His $4.6 million contract will now instead cost the Flyers $1.6 million in 2016 and $1.5 million the year after.
A Comparison: Alex Burrows
The 34-year-old left winger is a great comparison to Alex Burrows. The two have a similar age range, similar point production, and an identical cap hit. But not the salary hit, however.
Burrows, the 35-year-old leader, had 22 points in 79 games this past season, which is at an identical rate to Umberger’s 11 points in 39 games. Burrows also carries a cap hit of $4.5 million for the upcoming season, and his position on the Canucks roster is as good as gone at this point.
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But with Burrow’s salary being just $3.0 million compared to Umberger’s $4.5 million, the savings for a Burrows buyout is not as big.
While Umberger’s buyout gives the Flyers a $3 million relief this season, a Burrows buyout would only result in a $1 million relief over the next two seasons, according to General Fanager.
I have been saying repeatedly that the best thing for Burrows would be a trade. Having started his career in the ECHL, he has earned the respect in the city and the organization. Should he have to leave Vancouver, he deserves to be traded to a contender or a favorite team of his.
Montreal has surfaced as a potential destination, but seeing that Marc Savard‘s $4.1 million cap hit cost his team a second-round pick, the Canucks will find it hard to trade him without sacrificing.
On the other hand, there is the argument that buying Burrows out is the most respectful route, as he will be able to choose his own destination as a free agent.
Although the buyout seems like the best course of action for the Canucks (demoting him to the AHL would be the worst thing for their relationship, I would think), the one issue the Canucks might have with that is the fact next year’s offseason is going to be the most cap-straining one ever with all the re-signing the club has to do.
Chris Higgins: Playing the Waiting Game?
Chris Higgins has another year left on his contract which pays at $2.5 million. With the buyout saving the Canucks $1.67 million this year and costing them $833,000 the year after, the Canucks should buy him out unless he still has a draft pick value in the trade market.
It is more of a contract space issue for Higgins, as the Canucks will be looking to make more signings to fill up the 50-contract limit. Otherwise, his presence in the minors may be beneficial for the future but the relationship sour between him and the Canucks brass.
Again, who knows if he suddenly shows up a bottom-six guy for the Canucks at camp?
Jared Cowen Bought Out: A Fit with VAN?
Big defenseman Jared Cowen was bought out by the Toronto Maple Leafs this week and the 25-year-old will be the youngest UFA in the market aside from college players and undrafted prospects. At 6-foot-5 and 238 pounds, Cowen’s frame could attract teams on July 1st.
Cowen had the final year of his $12.4 million contract (over four seasons) bought out as coach Mike Babcock did not see a fit for Cowen in Toronto’s blueline. But does Vancouver have room for him?
No.
Cowen will add another dysfunctional piece to the logjam in Vancouver’s blueline. The Canucks do not need another depth defenseman, especially one like Cowen who is about Sbisa-level with his puck control. The truth is that he does not provide half the physicality that Sbisa does, leading me to believe that he should not, and will not, be an option for the Canucks.
Bottomline: Maximum $2.67 million relief, minimum $1.67 million relief
Next: The TRADE MARKET: Salaries, Rights, and Picks
The TRADE MARKET: Salaries, Rights, and Picks
The trade market, as already seen, has set the price for moving contracts. A second-round pick clears $4.5 million in cap hit.
As for a fifth-round pick, it apparently is worth a week-long negotiating right with an unrestricted free agent. That was the case when the Dallas Stars made the decision to acquire the Arizona Coyotes’ fifth-round pick in exchange for negotiating rights to UFA defenseman Alex Goligoski.
The rumor also is that the bid for Steven Stamkos‘s UFA negotiation rights will take far more to get. The Lightning did say that they will make one more offer year next week, but the rumor also states that the price is a 2nd-round pick and a young, NHL ready winger. The Canucks will not pursue, hopefully.
A Market for Hamhuis’s Rights?
Comparing Alex Goligoski to Dan Hamhuis may be a stretch on the Canucks’ end, but with all due respect to Jim Benning’s efforts to let Hamhuis stay, the 33-year-old seems like he does not have a future with the Canucks.
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So is there a market for Hamhuis if Goligoski, the 30-year-old 35-point producer, had one?
The circumstances surrounding Goligoski’s trade, however, is unique. There was no chatter about a competing bid for Goligoski. It seems that Arizona’s new GM is trying to secure foundational pieces for the blueline even if it means giving up low-end picks.
As no other teams seem to be headed in that direction, you can expect Hamhuis;s rights to stay put. Besides, if Goligoski is worth a fifth-round pick, what is Hamhuis worth when he is three years older and 20 points less productive?
The Salary Dumps are Happening
It was Marc Savard’s $4.5 million salary that cost the Panthers a second-round pick. Then the Chicago Blackhawks paid the price for Bryan Bickell‘s $4.0 million contract. The Blackhawks gave up Teuvo Teravainen and Bickell for a second-round pick and a third-round pick.
Teravainen? There’s the potential leading scorer for the Carolina Hurricanes in five years’ time.
With that in mind, I wonder how much more a Pavel Datsyuk contract will demand at $7.5 million?
Told that Datysuk's contract will be terminated for anticipatory breach and he will be free to sign a new contract in Russia.
— John Shannon (@JShannonhl) June 18, 2016
1/2
Courtesy of John Shannon of Sportsnet, the anticipation is that the Red Wings and the Russian star will part ways. With the Red Wings looking to add Steven Stamkos with Datsyuk’s departure, the salary has got to be moved.
Because of Datsyuk's age, there will be a cap hit associated with his contract -- full cap hit because it's a 35 plus contract.
— John Shannon (@JShannonhl) June 18, 2016
2/2
So can the Canucks take advantage and eat some of that contract in exchange for a pick or a young player? Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Jurco have been floated around. If the Canucks indeed do buyout both Higgins and Burrows, they will have $2.67 million more, pushing the projected salary space to $9.5 million for the Canucks.
If the Canucks want around $7 million going into free agency, they could eat up half of Datsyuk’s contract in exchange for a 2nd-round pick or so. I don’t think that Jurco has a fit in Vancouver where the defensive game from the forwards is so stressed.
TCW Beichler’s Take: Trading for Datsyuk is POSSIBLE
But Pulkinnen, that’s a name that Jim Benning could like. The RFA has yet to be signed, but the Canucks could look to give the 24-year-old forward a “prove it” deal that is inexpensive.
With Ken Holland now saying that he won’t trade away prized prospects to make a salary-dump happen, it will surely be interesting if the Canucks opt to take picks in return.
For the Canucks, a trade in this neighborhood is going to hurt them cap-wise and free-agency wise. Jim Benning likes the pieces that he has, and a trade will surely cut into the cap space.
Next: MARKET: Colorado and Edmonton
MARKET: Colorado and Edmonton
After much speculation surrounding the Colorado Avalanche and the status of offensive defenseman RFA Tyson Barrie, the drama has been put to rest by Avalanche GM Joe Sakic much to the displeasure of the fans of the rumored potential destinations.
What does this mean for the Canucks and their free agency pursuit? It means that Vancouver will have to look at the open market for a proven NHL puck-moving defenseman should they want one. The Canucks were one of the teams rumored to be after Barrie, believe it or not.
Hearing lots of chatter about Vancouver. Seems like they are highly interested in Barrie.
— NRD (@NHLRumorsDaily) June 10, 2016
Again, who knows if the Avalanche is putting up a smokescreen of sorts. Given the circumstances on the Avs’ blueline, it would not be surprising if Barrie ultimately is traded out for a big, physical defenseman, even if Colorado doesn’t advertise him on the block.
And perhaps this news, along with the news of Sami Vatanen‘s new contract with the Anaheim Ducks, makes Dan Hamhuis’s rights that little bit more valuable?
Edmonton Demanding King’s Ransom for No. 4
The Edmonton Oilers don’t feel like trading away the No. 4 pick, eh?
And of course, the Canucks could offer both Subban and Weber. Heck, we could throw in our No. 5 pick, too.
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Joking aside, this serves well for Vancouver on so many different fronts. Draft-wise, the Oilers are the most likely team to even consider reaching to take a defenseman with the fourth-overall pick. That makes both Matthew Tkachuk and Pierre-Luc Dubois available for Jim Benning’s taking.
On the trade front, the Oilers have driven up the market price for high-end picks big time. With the No. 4 and No. 5 picks being considered pretty much equal at this year’s draft, the Canucks will be able to also demand a king’s ransom.
Or Jim Benning could do some marketing and lure teams with a slightly reduced price for the fifth-overall pick. Teams who struck out trying to trade with EDM could look to VAN for answers. This is unlikely, though, especially after this interview, courtesy of Farhan Lalji of TSN.
It seems that Vancouver could be reaping from Edmonton’s abuse of the No. 4 pick:
Benning had "a lot of calls today" on pick #5. There were "some names in the market place that I hadn't heard before". #Canucks
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 17, 2016
Trader Jim is still not planning to move the high pick but is that a glimmer of doubt I see in this quote?
Benning still isn't looking to move the 5th pick but does expect dialogue to increase in the next week. Has 6 players he likes so happy at 5
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 17, 2016
If the Jim Benning indeed likes six players, a trade to move down by a couple of slots could still be in the works. Even if those “six players” include the likes of Auston Matthews, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Patrik Laine, the Canucks could move down a pick via trade with the Calgary Flames.
Though one may argue if the Flames would ant to pay anything of value to move up a single slot, the consensus that there is a drop off after Tkachuk and Dubois cannot be ignored.
Benning calls Tkachuk & Dubois foundational players. Says MT is going to be a scorer in NHL w/ better vision than dad. Sees PLD as a center
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 17, 2016
Most thought that a Barrie trade would most certainly require the Canucks to move out of the draft’s top-five. With that also not being the case anymore, it seems that the Canucks will simply hold on to the pick unless some crazy offer trickles in.
Again, a trade involving the No. 5 pick likely will not help the cap situation going into July 1st.
A trade to add picks, however, will certainly require the Canucks to send NHL assets back the other way, increasing the salary cap leverage. In the same interview by Lalji, Jim Benning did say that he was looking to add another pick but likes the assets that the team has right now.
Next: Free Agency: The Wrap Up
Free Agency: The Wrap Up
The buyouts have been addressed. The latest trade possibilities have been drawn open. But what are the Canucks really looking to do on July 1st? How much cap space will they need?
The biggest question may have been addressed here:
Benning maintains he wants to add a 20-30 goal scorer in free agency along with a 2-way fwd. Hasn't made a decision on Higgins & Burrows yet
— Farhan Lalji (@FarhanLaljiTSN) June 17, 2016
A 20-30 goal scoring winger (would have to be a winger, right?) and a versatile 2-way forward? How much is that going to cost?
In this year’s free agency, that list addresses seven wingers with 20+ goals, plus Stamkos: Loui Eriksson, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, Jamie McGinn, David Backes, P-A Parenteau, and Milan Lucic.
The minimum price for a winger of that caliber would have to be in the $5 million range.
I think teams are just waiting to see where the salary cap ends up. – GM Jim Benning
As for a dependable two-way player, that is a very broad statement that should set the bottom line at $1 million, should a player like Mike Santorelli be in the conversation. Again, that prices goes up into the four millions if Troy Brouwer is the one in mind.
Doing the simple and very rounded math tells us that Jim Benning would have to have at least $6.5 million in cap space to lure a 20-goal scorer and a bottom-six two-way player. That becomes $11 million if the Canucks get a 30-goal scorer and a middle-six two-way player.
The Canucks currently have $7 million in projected cap space with a handful of fringe-NHL RFAs to qualify. If the two veteran wingers Higgins and Burrows are bought out, the figure rises to about $9.5 million.
Next: Countdown to 2016: Re-Drafting the Class of 2007
Ultimately, Jim Benning may be right — the Canucks are going to have to be tight to the cap ceiling once again and nothing will be certain until the NHL announces the official salary cap for the 2016-17 season.