Vancouver Canucks: 3 Draft Day Trade Proposals
It has been nearly two weeks since the Vancouver Canucks split open the trade market with an unexpected trade. The phones should be ringing.
When the Vancouver Canucks made the unusually early move to grab defenseman Erik Gudbranson, it reminded us that even the biggest of trades can happen at the most unexpected times.
So here at The Canuck Way, we are going to a weekly dive into the NHL trade market and see what the Canucks could pull off as the offseason rolls on. This should hopefully keep us ready and alert for even the most unexpected trades.
And with the NHL Combine wrapped up this past week, the NHL Entry draft is just two and a half weeks away. Let’s look at how the draft could see a flurry of activity involving pretty big picks.
An Overview: The Picks that are on the Block
Let’s take a look at what is explicitly available out there on the market.
According to NHL Expert Picks, the Minnesota Wild are shopping their 15th-overall selection. The Minnesota wild have been looking to move big-salary veterans to make room for free agents. Adding draft picks will certainly lubricate the process for the Wild who are looking to move depth defenseman Jonas Brodin out, as well as top-six centerman Mikael Granlund and many others.
At the end, the Wild are just looking for cap-friendly players who can help them win instantly.
The Edmonton Oilers are still messing with Jim Benning‘s psych as they hold on to the fourth-overall pick. The pick, as well as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle, have all been floated around in the rumors.
The Boston Bruins have three picks in the top 50 and they are going to be aggressive trying to add a top-four defenseman or two. They have the 14th overall, 29th overall, and the 49th overall picks, assuming that the San Jose Sharks lose to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Carolina Hurricanes are going to be the most interesting to watch as they have seven picks in the first three rounds. Their 13th-overall pick and their 21st-overall pick look pretty good, while pick No. 43 and 50 could prove to be decent assets.
Look for the Arizona Coyotes to be active with the seventh-overall pick, as they will be with the 20th overall pick.
Next: How much are Draft Picks Worth?
How much are Draft Picks Worth?
With the Vancouver Canucks wanting to fill up their draft picks, we should be aware of the values of these picks. Of course, each draft and each pick are different from another and needs and surpluses are never the same.
Before anything else, based on the teams we have identified, the league’s “draft pick block” could look like this:
Draft Pick Block 2016
Let’s look at the some of the comparables.
I will simply reiterate how Erik Gudbranson, a 24-year-old top-four defenseman with leadership character, was traded for about two 20th-overall picks.
With this in mind, take a look at this wonderful model that Eric Tulsky has compiled before being hired by the Carolina management in an analytic role. The Canucks gave up “36.85” in “draft dollars”. I have considered how high the Canucks pick in each round as well as how strong the top-50 class is this year.
In this year’s draft, that would most likely reflect the value of an 11th-overall pick. Enough already, let’s jump into other comparisons.
Veteran Defenseman vs. Pick
Remember this? Aside from the player and the parties involved, the pick would have projected to be along the lines of the 55th-overall pick in this year’s draft. So a 34-year-old veteran defenseman on the decline is worth a late second, eh?
Referring to the draft pick dollars model, Kevin Bieksa was worth about five bucks in draft dollars.
Good Back-Up Netminder vs. Pick
Although there still are many who find fault with Benning’s decision to trade Eddie Lack for just an eventual Guillaume Brisebois and a seventh round pick, after how much Lack has struggled this year with the Hurricanes, it will be interesting to see if the trade proved to be a lose-lose for both parties.
But this we can calculate: the Swede, who was a 27-year-old back then, fetched the Canucks some 3.5 bucks in draft dollars.
Quantity or Quality of Picks
In last year’s draft, the N.Y. Rangers traded a second-round pick (57th overall) to Washington for a third-round pick (62nd overall) and a fourth-round pick (113th overall). Although the Canucks are not in the position to pull such a trade, it certainly is a good indicator of what a trade could be.
According to our model, the second-round pick proved just under a buck more valuable than the sum of the two lower picks. Perhaps from this model, we learn that the NHL is not a trade-down friendly league, at least not statistically speaking.
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Also of note, the Vancouver Canucks have traded a second-round pick for a player in Sven Baertschi who was a former first round selection but a fringe NHL prospect. That pick, at 53rd overall, equals just over five bucks in draft dollars.
And from the trades made at the 2015 draft, we can see that late first-round picks were worth an early second-round pick as well as a pick from the first half of the third round.
One odd thing I note is that there are rarely players of Alex Burrows’s caliber being moved for a pick and not as a rental. The closest comparison that I can find is this year’s rental acquisition Jiri Hudler, and that is not a fair comparison to make.
The Panthers gave up the 54th-overall pick and a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, which add up to be about 4.5 bucks in draft dollars. Hudler, at 32 years old, had 35 points in 53 games at that point with the Flames, which amounts to about double of Burrows’s production this past season.
In summary:
Defensemen are worth considerably more than forwards are. A veteran top-four defender is almost equal in value with a rental top-six scorer who is just a few years younger than him.
Next: ARIZONA CALLS: Surplus First Round Picks
ARIZONA CALLS: Surplus First Round Picks
The Arizona Coyotes are looking for a top-four defenseman with cap space to spare. With Shane Doan questionable for the coming year, the Vancouver Canucks could fill both those gaps while looking for a big upgrade drafting-wise.
Net Draft Transaction: (#20 OP + #158 OP) – (#64 OP) = 19.2 “draft bucks”
Defenseman Luca Sbisa’s worth cannot be lower than that of a low first-round pick, which cashes in at about 17 draft bucks, a figure that holds accurate with the worst-case market that would see Sbisa worth just one half of Gudbranson.
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Alex Burrows, however, is a tough one to judge for the lack of comparisons. An aging Kevin Bieksa with one year left on his contract was worth about five “draft bucks”. With the salary not too much of a concern for Arizona, they would not mind adding to a leadership group that is very flimsy after one and only Shane Doan.
For the Canucks, it would be best for them to show respect to Burrows by trading him rather than buying him out.
I truly believe that Sbisa is worth more than just a low first-round pick, but if the Canucks see a big steal at number 20 and the Coyotes want to get a pick in the 50~100 range which is currently empty for them, this could be a trade that frees up big time salary cap for the Canucks.
At the end of the day, would it not feel good to have gotten rid of more than $7 million in cap space?
Next: PHILADELPHIA CALLS: Cheap Offense and Young Depth
PHILADELPHIA CALLS: Cheap Offense and Young Depth
The Philadelphia Flyers are not satisfied with a showing to the Stanley Cup playoffs. When the Flyers got thrashed around by the Washington Capitals in scoring just six goals in six games, the management knew what they had to do:
“We need some upgrade up front,” the Flyers’ general manager said last week. “We need some goal scoring, playmaking — [that] would be our number one need.”
That was a month ago and the problem remains unsolved. While the Flyers could look to land big names from free agency, they also need to sign RFAs Jordan Weal, Brayden Schenn, Brandon Manning, and Radko Gudas and stay under the $7.5 million cap space they have right now.
The Canucks can offer some low-budget scoring and a young body who can save the Flyers from signing a veteran fourth-line center:
Net Draft Transaction: (#18 OP) – (#64 OP) = 21.1 “draft bucks”
Now, now, now. Don’t you call this a steal for the Flyers quite yet.
Jannik Hansen carries just a $2.5 million cap hit. Brendan Gaunce is a serviceable fourth-line forward who can be versatile defensively as well as score with timely speed.
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Considering that Hansen produced just as much offense as Hudler did at the time of his trade, the stage is set for Hansen to be traded. Hudler carried a $4.0 million pricetag while Hansen will be $1.5 million cheaper than Hudler and two years younger than Hudler when he was traded.
If Hudler, a rental, was worth 4.5 “draft bucks”, I would bet that Hansen is worth almost 8.
Let’s put Gaunce on a decent pedestal and say that his trade stock is at least just as high as Baertschi’s when he was acquired by the Vancouver Canucks — so make that 5+ for Gaunce.
To make this a fair trade, the Canucks still need to add some 5 “draft bucks”. I sound stupid saying this, but the Canucks would have to add a middle second-round pick to make this fair, essentially telling me that moving up 30 spots from #48 to #18 is worth a top-nine forward in Hansen, a former first-round pick in Gaunce, as well as an early third-round pick?
Obviously, there are times when a trade that seems to make the perfect sense don’t add up in the eyes of analytics. All being said, however, I would love the Canucks to make this move to free up some extra cap space for established top-six wing help from the free agency.
Next: MONTREAL CALLS: A French Canadian Leadership
MONTREAL CALLS: A French Canadian Leadership
The Montreal Canadians collapsed this past season. Without a strong core to carry the team without a healthy Carey Price, the Canadians were dismal to end the season. The team needs character and some depth down the wings, especially trading away big-bodied winger Dale Weise as a rental to the Chicago Blackhawks.
And boy do they need scoring. Secondary scoring has been nonexistent for this team who have the cap to spend this summer.
Net Draft Transaction: (#39 OP + #124 OP) = 9.4
Once again, Janik Hansen will prove to be a sound secondary scoring option for the Habs. His speed and tenacity on the puck should allow him to thrive playing under the same system with guys like Brendan Gallaugher and Alex Galchenyuk.
As for Alex Burrows, he ticks the box to be the perfect Montreal Canadian. He can be the veteran leader in the room who is hard to play against on the ice. Ever since Brendan Prust was traded to the Canucks, Montreal lacked that player.
The Canucks could look at retaining some of Burrows’s payroll and fetching a bigger return.
As it stands, the trade looks pretty fair numbers-wise if we continue with the notion that Hansen outweighs Hudler’s rental value. And when looked at with the eye test, the test also looks good.
The Canucks, once again, would shed almost seven million dollars in salary cap without having the need to invest more on the blueline.
Next: The Wrap-Up
Draft Pick Trading: The Wrap-Up
It is not easy trading for big picks. C’mon. I didn’t even try to trade up into the top-three. As already mentioned on this site, the Canucks need draft picks but just simply do not have enough assets to kick around.
With the first two proposals, the Canucks would be getting a very solid player at the 18th~20th overall range. Defensemen like big Logan Stanley and powerful Charlie McAvoy will be hard to pass by, while forwards of varying levels of skill and speed like Julien Gauthier, Max Jones, or German Rubtsov look like good top-six material for the future.
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Even at 39th overall, the Canucks could draft a player like Kyle Clague or even a Victor Mete, a tremendous offensive defenseman. Massive defensemen like Sean Day may be available.
I would think that the Canucks draft a defender after drafting a forward at fifth overall.
To get a top-100 draft pick, the Canucks will have to sacrifice a line-up asset. Whether it be testing the market with a proven player like Jannik Hansen, an aging yet leading player like Alex Burrows, or a wild-card young defenseman with a potential to be a great top-four player like Luca Sbisa — the Canucks will have to sacrifice to get younger.
But this sacrifice will not only get draft picks to Vancouver, it will get free agents to Vancouver. With the amount of cash each of those aforementioned players carry, the Canucks are sure to have more than $10 million in cap space should they pull a deal through to acquire a top-100 pick.
And yet, I still wonder what the price is to move up two spots from the number five to the number three. According to the model that we have been using throughout the post, the difference is 10 “draft bucks” — equivalent to an early second round pick. The Canucks should do that.
Again, proves that analytics can be so useful at times but at the end of the day can end up sounding absurd, as it did with the Philadelphia trade.
Next: Free Agency Preview: 6 Strategies for July 1st
The Vancouver Canucks are going to make some noise on draft day. They have for years past and they will once again as the stars line up for a deal to be shaped. Sacrifices will be made. But when Trader Jim is at the helm and the former director of amateur scouting is making the calls, the fans can rest assured the club will continue to being in the thick of the action.