Vancouver Canucks: 3 Draft Day Trade Proposals

Jan 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Vancouver Canucks right wing Jannik Hansen (36) skates in on Philadelphia Flyers goalie Rob Zepp (72) and defenseman Nick Schultz (55) during the third period at Wells Fargo Center. The Canucks defeated the Flyers 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 15, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Vancouver Canucks right wing Jannik Hansen (36) skates in on Philadelphia Flyers goalie Rob Zepp (72) and defenseman Nick Schultz (55) during the third period at Wells Fargo Center. The Canucks defeated the Flyers 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 6
Next
vancouver canucks
Oct 21, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Kevin Bieksa (3) and goalie Eddie Lack (31) during the game against the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeated the Canucks 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

How much are Draft Picks Worth?

With the Vancouver Canucks wanting to fill up their draft picks, we should be aware of the values of these picks. Of course, each draft and each pick are different from another and needs and surpluses are never the same.
Before anything else, based on the teams we have identified, the league’s “draft pick block” could look like this:

Draft Pick Block 2016

Let’s look at the some of the comparables.

I will simply reiterate how Erik Gudbranson, a 24-year-old top-four defenseman with leadership character, was traded for about two 20th-overall picks.

With this in mind, take a look at this wonderful model that Eric Tulsky has compiled before being hired by the Carolina management in an analytic role. The Canucks gave up “36.85” in “draft dollars”. I have considered how high the Canucks pick in each round as well as how strong the top-50 class is this year.

In this year’s draft, that would most likely reflect the value of an 11th-overall pick. Enough already, let’s jump into other comparisons.

Veteran Defenseman vs. Pick

Remember this? Aside from the player and the parties involved, the pick would have projected to be along the lines of the 55th-overall pick in this year’s draft. So a 34-year-old veteran defenseman on the decline is worth a late second, eh?

Referring to the draft pick dollars model, Kevin Bieksa was worth about five bucks in draft dollars.

Good Back-Up Netminder vs. Pick

Although there still are many who find fault with Benning’s decision to trade Eddie Lack for just an eventual Guillaume Brisebois and a seventh round pick, after how much Lack has struggled this year with the Hurricanes, it will be interesting to see if the trade proved to be a lose-lose for both parties.

But this we can calculate: the Swede, who was a 27-year-old back then, fetched the Canucks some 3.5 bucks in draft dollars.

Quantity or Quality of Picks

In last year’s draft, the N.Y. Rangers traded a second-round pick (57th overall) to Washington for a third-round pick (62nd overall) and a fourth-round pick (113th overall). Although the Canucks are not in the position to pull such a trade, it certainly is a good indicator of what a trade could be.

According to our model, the second-round pick proved just under a buck more valuable than the sum of the two lower picks. Perhaps from this model, we learn that the NHL is not a trade-down friendly league, at least not statistically speaking.

More from The Canuck Way

Also of note, the Vancouver Canucks have traded a second-round pick for a player in Sven Baertschi who was a former first round selection but a fringe NHL prospect. That pick, at 53rd overall, equals just over five bucks in draft dollars.

And from the trades made at the 2015 draft, we can see that late first-round picks were worth an early second-round pick as well as a pick from the first half of the third round.

One odd thing I note is that there are rarely players of Alex Burrows’s caliber being moved for a pick and not as a rental. The closest comparison that I can find is this year’s rental acquisition Jiri Hudler, and that is not a fair comparison to make.

The Panthers gave up the 54th-overall pick and a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, which add up to be about 4.5 bucks in draft dollars. Hudler, at 32 years old, had 35 points in 53 games at that point with the Flames, which amounts to about double of Burrows’s production this past season.

In summary:

Defensemen are worth considerably more than forwards are. A veteran top-four defender is almost equal in value with a rental top-six scorer who is just a few years younger than him.

Next: ARIZONA CALLS: Surplus First Round Picks