Mar 18, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie (4) controls the puck during the warmup period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 18, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie (4) controls the puck during the warmup period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports /
The Vancouver Canucks will have several options on the first day of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
If there was ever a thing to be excited about in the Vancouver Canucks’ 2015-16 season, it was the fact that they would be awarded a very high draft pick. PATRIK LAINE IS COMING TO VANCOUVER, YEEEEEES! As we all know, the Canucks are never lucky, though, which leaves them with the fifth-overall selection after the draft lottery. Still a good starting point.
Now that Vancouver is extremely unlikely to get Laine, Auston Matthews or Jesse Puljujarvi, fans are mostly hoping for Pierre-Luc Dubois or Matthew Tkachuk, which is the most likely scenario. But also a very boring one — and when has general manager Jim Benning ever done the boring thing?
Following that, Vancouver would have picked 33rd. In this years draft, picks six to 15, 16 to 35 and 36 to 70 — or something along those lines — are interchangeable. In other words, Vancouver’s 33rd selection would have been about as valuable as a late first-round pick. Would have been, because Benning traded the pick to Sunrise, Florida, along with center Jared McCann, to acquire the Hulk… er… Erik Gudbranson.
So what options does Benning have left come June 24th? Here are five possible draft day scenarios — including a trade for a big-name restricted free agent.
As said before, the most obvious choice is also the most boring one. Wait for the first four picks to unfold, then call the best name that is left. That will most likely be Pierre-Luc Dubois or Matthew Tkachuk. If the Edmonton Oilers keep their fourth selection, many mock drafts predict them to select a defenseman. But they also lack a true power forward, aside from Leon Draisaitl, so they could definitely go for Dubois as well.
Which would leave the Canucks with Tkachuk. Yay.
As I elaborated in an article last month, I believe the Canucks should either draft Dubois — given that he is available — or trade down if they can’t. Why? Because center and defense are the obvious organizational needs, and a defenseman could have more value than Tkachuk in the future. However, simply picking a D-man could be considered reaching.
Of course, the Canucks kind of need everything in their organization, which becomes clear when you look at how Emerson Etem is currently the team’s No. 2 left winger below the age of 124. Which is roughly how old Daniel Sedin and Alex Burrows are.
In theory, the Canucks will face a very easy decision, no matter who is left after the first four selections of the draft. Dubois or Tkachuk, either one will be a top-six forward at the NHL level.
So yeah, it could be a rather boring day for Canucks fans. Unless…
How do you get fans angry as an NHL club’s GM? You make a stupid trade or pick a stupid player at the draft. But even if you make a smart call, there will always be fans who rage about that call on social media and in Vancouver’s downtown bars. At the 2016 Draft, picking a defenseman could lead to that reaction.
There are Canucks fans who think picking Olli Juolevi or Jakob Chychrun would be even better than getting Dubois or Tkachuk. But there is also the vast majority who believes Bob McKenzie when he says the draft’s top-six players are all forwards (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Dubois, Tkachuk and Alex Nylander).
Still, if Benning has his mind set on one of Dubois and Tkachuk but that player gets taken away from him at fourth overall, he might want to consider one of the D-men instead. Juolevi and Chychrun might not project as future NHL No. 1 D-men, but they certainly have the potential to play on a team’s first pairing within the next five years. Good defensemen are extremely valuable in today’s NHL, so their value might actually turn out to be higher than that of Dubois or Tkachuk.
There have been rumblings that Benning likes Juolevi enough to pick him in the first round, even though the Canucks GM said picking a forward is more likely. If he likes one D-man more than Dubois or Tkachuk and can’t find a trade partner to move down, he might just go for that D-man instead. Personally, I wouldn’t even call that “reaching for a defenseman” — it would just be a good pick.
But, it would leave many fans very angry. Probably not for long, but the decision would create a wave of angry reactions for at least a week after the conclusion of the draft.
What could make fans angrier than reaching for a defenseman with the fifth-overall pick? Reaching for a forward, of course. Like, Logan Brown, Tyson Jost or Clayton Keller. The Canucks need a Henrik Sedin successor, so this is a legitimate option.
This scenario would likely only unfold if Benning wants a center and Dubois goes off the board at No. 4, while Benning fails to trade down to draft a center there. Plus, he would have to like one of Brown, Jost and Keller more than he likes Tkachuk or Nylander. I admit, this is kind of unlikely, but it is a possibility.
Whether Henrik Sedin retires in 2018 or not, he will likely be a better fit for a middle-six line then. However, neither Bo Horvat nor Brandon Sutter project as No. 1 centers. So what could be done other than signing Steven Stamkos or drafting another center?
There obviously isn’t much.
Unless Vancouver gets another high pick next year, getting a chance to draft WHL Brandon Wheat Kings center Nolan Patrick or Windsor Spitfire Gabriel Vilardi, they won’t have many other opportunities. Benning keeps saying he wants to make the playoffs — and he makes moves accordingly — so they can’t really count on that. A winning team needs a true No. 1 center, and Benning knows that, which is why he probably has his eye on Dubois.
Brown, Jost and Keller all have the potential to be that No. 1.
Next: A Little Trading Never Hurt Nobody
Feb 24, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Luca Sbisa (5) carries the puck against the Boston Bruins during the second period at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /
Scenario 4: A Little Trading Never Hurt Nobody
The Vancouver Canucks decide to go with one of the first three scenarios. But Benning isn’t happy yet. He wants more.
To kick of our new series Tuesday’s Trading, TCW writer David Joun explored trade options for defenseman Luca Sbisa. The 26-year-old failed to turn into a top-four player, but he is still a decent option for a bottom-six role. Just maybe not in Vancouver.
One of Joun’s proposals was the following:
The Boston Bruins want to shake up their blue line, and Sbisa would be a good bottom-six option. Boston owns the San Jose Sharks’ first-round pick, which will be 29th or 30th overall, depending on the outcome of the Stanley Cup Finals, so they might be willing to part ways with it.
Vancouver lost their 33rd pick in the Gudbranson trade, which shows how much value defensemen have, which is also why the fifth-round picks were added to sweeten the deal. Whether they are added or not, Sbisa for a late first would be a great outcome.
Apr 3, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie (4) controls the puck in the first period against the St. Louis Blues at the Pepsi Center. The Blues defeated the Avalanche 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
Scenario 5: The Blockbuster
The Colorado Avalanche has long been rumored to be looking to move defenseman Tyson Barrie, thanks to his high salary expectations and arbitration rights. To be exact, his new salary will likely go way beyond $5.5 million. Like, he might demand up to $7 million per year on a long-term contract. But he could be worth it.
A third-round pick in the 2009 Draft, Barrie just completed his third full NHL season. In the past two years, the 24-year-old had 25 goals and 102 points in 158 games on the blue line. Impressive, eh?
Barrie has struggled with his defensive play ever since he came into the league, but he can lead the offense from the backend. With Barrie on the roster, the Canucks could turn a weakness into their biggest strength: defense, more specifically the right side. Plus, the Canucks could try to turn him into a top-six winger like the Sharks have with Brent Burns before.
But what would it take?
I talked about the possibility to trade down if Vancouver cannot get Dubois at five. Well, here it is.
It is extremely difficult to say how much trading up costs. But, Eric Tulsky, former blogger and now analyst for the Carolina Hurricanes, came up with a model at Broad Street Hockey. To summarize, he gave each pick a value, and to get a fair trade, you combine picks to get to the value of the pick you are trading for.
Value of 5th overall: 49.2 Value of 10th overall: 36.5
Now how do we add Barrie to this? I believe a good comparable is the trade between Boston and Calgary last year, when the Bruins dealt their RFA to the Flames for a first-round pick (No. 15) in the 2015 NHL Draft and two second-round picks (Nos. 45 and 52). That adds up to a value of roughly 40, putting 10th plus Barrie at 76.5 — almost 30 more than the No. 5 pick.
That is where Jannik Hansen comes in. One of the Avalanche’s biggest needs right now is wing depth, and Hansen finished the 2015-16 campaign with 22 goals. So why not?
In addition to that, the Avalanche gets a prospect, if necessary. From Guillaume Brisebois to Brendan Gaunce, a lot is possible.
Losing Hansen is fine, because with Jake Virtanen, Brock Boeser and Anton Rodin, the Canucks should be set at the wing for the future. Plus, Brandon Sutter has played there before, so this should not be an issue.
Time to catch our breath — it was an exciting first day!
