Vancouver Canucks Trade Analysis: Benning Knows Trading

Jan 10, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Florida Panthers defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) skates against the Edmonton Oilers during the first period at Rexall Place. Florida Panthers won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 10, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Florida Panthers defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) skates against the Edmonton Oilers during the first period at Rexall Place. Florida Panthers won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
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Jan 10, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Florida Panthers defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) skates against the Edmonton Oilers during the first period at Rexall Place. Florida Panthers won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 10, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Florida Panthers defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) skates against the Edmonton Oilers during the first period at Rexall Place. Florida Panthers won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports /

The Vancouver Canucks are not shying away from the bidding war.

With the Vancouver Canucks making yet another deal to mortgage picks and potential for a more proven asset, Trader Jim is flexing his muscles again.

The Canucks acquired defenseman Erik Gudbranson from the Florida Panthers for forward Jared McCann on Wednesday, an unexpected trade that saw hell break loose on social media.

Draft picks were also involved, with Vancouver sending the second round, 33rd-overall pick and the fifth round, 93rd-overall pick to Florida and the Panthers returning a fifth round, 129th-overall pick to Vancouver.

With the trade, the Canucks will have six picks in this year’s draft: the 5th-overall, the 63rd-overall, the 129th-overall, the 153rd-overall, the 183rd-overall, and the 193rd-overall.

What’s the Issue?

So when it is all said and done, what is the big deal? Why is Twitter getting lit up by polarized opinions?

The Master Drafter is Giving Away Picks

The biggest concern right now seems to be the amount of future potential that GM Jim Benning has mortgaged for a single player. This year’s Entry Draft being considered one of the best that the league has seen in recent history, most are pointing to the loss of the 33rd-overall selection as the biggest issue with the deal.

What if Jared McCann is…

The next biggest concern is the man himself, Jared McCann. The Canucks knew that McCann had gained muscle already, just a handful of weeks into his first NHL offseason. A player with undeniable skill often criticized for the lack of strength, McCann was well on his way to becoming a serviceable middle-six forward, even a top-six winger.

Who the heck is Eric Gudbranson?

Lastly, with Gudbranson playing an entire continent away from Vancouver, Canucks fans do not know well what traits Benning saw in the defenseman that was so attractive. Let us answer all these questions.

Next: GM Jim Benning is a Confident Scout

Jun 27, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Vancouver Canucks general manager Jim Benning announces Jake Virtanen (not pictured) as the number six overall pick to the Vancouver Canucks in the first round of the 2014 NHL Draft at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 27, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Vancouver Canucks general manager Jim Benning announces Jake Virtanen (not pictured) as the number six overall pick to the Vancouver Canucks in the first round of the 2014 NHL Draft at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

GM Jim Benning is a Confident Scout

What was Jim Benning thinking when he traded away two picks, one of which is essentially a high second rounder that is just as good as a late first? Is this draft not packed deep with talent that the Canucks need? What happened to “building from the draft”?

With one of Matthew Tkachuk or Pierre-Luc Dubois sure to be available at the number five selection, the Canucks were looking to draft a defenseman with their second pick. But in getting Gudbranson, a top-four material, the Canucks have relieved themselves of the duty to draft a defenseman with the 33rd pick, and hence relinquished the pick in the trade.

Benning is confident in his assessment of Gudbranson and deemed the potential defenseman at 33rd-overall a surplus.

More from The Canuck Way

The issue that I would raise, however, is that of much finer detail. The Canucks lack scoring defensemen. Although a Nikita Tryamkin-like Gudbranson certainly stabilizes the defense and makes netminders’ lives easier, it doesn’t help the offense a whole lot.

And yet this draft is almost littered with offensive defensemen, starting with top picks Olli Juolevi and Dante Fabbro to late first-round guys like Kyle Clague and Samuel Girard.

Jim Benning quotes the deal that saw his former club, the Boston Bruins, say goodbye to then-RFA Dougie Hamilton. Calgary had acquired Hamilton for their first-round pick (#15) in the 2015 NHL Draft and the two second-round picks (#45 and #52).

Although a Gudbranson-to-Hamilton comparison may not be the most suitable, the Canucks did essentially send two late first-round picks for Gudbranson; think of the fourth-to-fifth round trade down and the early second collectively as equal value to a late first, and couple that with McCann.

Compare that to the price the Flames had to pay and consider the fact that Hamilton was a free agent bound for a mega deal, this deal is definitely not the worst one the NHL has seen draft pick-wise.

Next: Who cares what Jared McCann becomes?

Nov 25, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Vancouver Canucks forward Jared McCann (91) shoots in the third period against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Vancouver Canucks beat the Minnesota Wild 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 25, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Vancouver Canucks forward Jared McCann (91) shoots in the third period against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Vancouver Canucks beat the Minnesota Wild 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

Who cares what Jared McCann becomes?

The Vancouver Canucks lost a former first-round selection who struggled as a center having scored just 18 points in 69 games this season. But don’t let those numbers define how valuable an asset McCann really is. Don’t let the fact that he can’t play center be an excuse to discount McCann.

McCann can still play a middle-six wing role as a scorer who can also get under the other team’s skin with a Kesler-like edge in his game. His only fault as a player was his slight frame, but it seems that McCann has beefed up quite a bit already to 194 pounds.

McCann is bound to get better. But not in a Canuck uniform. Can’t blame Benning for how good his draft pick gets.

With the abundance of centermen in the system, the Canucks were dealing McCann from a point of surplus. McCann had no shot of staying in Vancouver as a center, and with the plethora of bottom-six forwards that Jim Benning had acquired, the likes of Emerson Etem and Markus Granlund were already filling out the lineup quick.

If you think McCann got it tough, how about Brendan Gaunce? He is the only surviving member of the Gillis regime. He didn’t get his NHL chance until late in the season, only to go back down to the AHL and get shut out by the Albany Devils.

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With a young guy like Gaunce looking to round out that bottom line for the Canucks with all the right “Benning characteristics” — the grit, the two-way play, and so on,  McCann was not going to get a shot in Vancouver.

Again, think back to the Boston-Calgary trade for Hamilton. Do you think McCann was worth a mid-first round pick? I personally was ready to accept an early second pick for the man.

Now was the time to trade McCann, before he lost all value in being demoted down to the AHL and getting considered a failed project that got rushed into the NHL.

All being said, this should give McCann a lot more breathing room to grow and flourish as a player. Best of wishes to Jared.

Next: Erik Gudbranson: The Man who Beats the Analytics

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Erik Gudbranson: The Man who Beats the Analytics

So who is Erik Gudbranson? Gudbranson is a 6-foot-5 defenseman who weighs 216 pounds and shoots right. He averaged 20 minutes a night for the Panthers during the regular season and 27 minutes a night during the playoffs.

Gudbranson is the definition of a physical stay-at-home defenseman who does not go out of his way to make offensive plays happen. The one prominent offensive tool he has is his slapshot which is one of the hardest in the league. He had twice as many hits (150) than shots (73) this past season.

Needless to say, Gudbranson clears the net-front with authority while a Youtube search of Gudbranson will yield videos of him fighting and dominating some of the nastiest names like Dalton Prout and Steve Bernier. He will make the life easier for Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom.

However, Gudbranson stands out from the rest of the league in another way. This is where the new Florida regime differs from the old one. The new analytics-based management has traded away Gudbranson for how egregious his advanced stats are.

vancouver canucks
vancouver canucks /

Despite eating up top-four minutes, his possession metrics are off the charts — as in, beyond the negative axis of the charts. Possession metrics deem him unfit for NHL hockey.

So did Benning just trade about two first-round picks’ worth of assets for a guy who isn’t even worth a Yannick Weber?

No.

This guy was drafted third overall, just behind Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin. There is a reason why the Panthers drafted him third overall. Here is the quote from George Richards of the Miami Herald.

Gudbranson has been considered to be a future candidate for team captain ever since general manager Dale Tallon made him his first draft pick (third overall) at the 2010 NHL Draft in Los Angeles. With Willie Mitchell expected to either retire or at least not return to the Panthers next season, Gudbranson would be in the mix to wear the “C” in 2016. (George Richards, Miami Herald)

What the analytics couldn’t solve the players did. And what some Canucks fans aren’t seeing, the Panthers fans did. Some Panthers fans are just about ready to overthrow the new regime.

Jim Benning puts tremendous value in leadership and character, and he got what he wanted in Gudbranson. As everyone says, young top-four defensemen don’t grow on trees. But this isn’t the end of the story. There is more.

Next: Behind the Scenes: Trader Jim Has More to Say

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Behind the Scenes: Trader Jim Has More to Say

If Jim Benning must trade for a young top-four defenseman, why not Tyson Barrie of the Colorado Avalanche? Why not a Tobias Enstrom of the Winnipeg Jets? Why Gudbranson and not anyone else?

Here’s what you had to say:

Here are some other factors that make Gudbranson a win for the current Canucks.

Benning Scouted Gudbranson for the Draft

When the Florida Panthers drafted Gudbranson with the third overall pick, where do you think Jim Benning was?

He was enjoying the second-overall selection with the rest of the Boston Bruins, the prize none other than Tyler Seguin, now the franchise centerman for the Dallas Stars. As the assistant GM of the Boston Bruins, Benning knew the top of the draft class by heart, and he knew what Gudbranson would bring to the ice.

Benning has Chemistry in Mind

Now with Gudbranson in the mix, the Canucks have a second pairing of Gudbranson and Ben Hutton. You can bet that this pairing can get the puck out of the D-zone with a prompt first pass to the neutral zone. Just as Nikita Tryamkin swallowed the man and Hutton took charge of the puck left behind, a Hutton-Gudbranson pairing is set to do just that.

Make Room and Save Money

Well, there goes Dan Hamhuis. No need to worry about our GM signing the oldest guy on the blueline to a deal that will never satisfy anyone.

And how about Luca Sbisa? There’s no fit for him anymore, now that the big boys Tryamkin and Gudbranson are here to stay. No more sacrificing puck mobility for sandpaper hockey. All being said, a Tryamkin-Sbisa third pairing would be a disaster for the Canucks.

So what does that mean? If I am Trader Jim, I am putting together another Garage Sale Seven list that is headlined by Luca Sbisa and the rights to Dan Hamhuis.

And guess what. Sbisa will cost more than Gudbranson does this year. Ship him now.

More Entry Draft Drama

The Edmonton Oilers are primed to add big time, rather it is making a selection at fourth overall or trading the pick for a top defenseman. Do not forget the Calgary Flames and the Arizona Coyotes who are all set to pick in the top-seven.

And then there is the “Tortz Pick” that the Columbus Blue Jackets owe the Canucks.

Although the chances are slim, if Columbus indeed allows the Canucks to take the compensatory pick this year (CBJ can choose between the 2016, 2017, and 2018 drafts), the trade and the giving away of the 33rd overall pick would be easier to swallow for the Canucks.

So is this deal easier to swallow for Vancouver if Jim Benning pulled the trigger knowing that the Blue Jackets were compensating the pick in 30 days’ time? Columbus has till June 1st to notify the Canucks of its decision.

Next: The Bottom Line

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The Bottom Line

This was a “Benning deal” that saw the Canucks pursue one “foundational” piece and sacrificing what seems too handsome a sum for the return. But at the end of the day, there was sound reasoning to each and every sacrifice the Canucks made to make this deal happen.

The draft pick lost its luster in that it was not longer the only source of acquiring a young quality defenseman. Gudbranson himself checks that box.

Jared McCann was never meant for Vancouver and the depth down the middle. At this point, if you aren’t a capable fourth-line player and not a franchise centerman, you are considered a surplus member of the Canucks organization.

More from The Canuck Way

McCann is young and his market value hadn’t disappeared yet. Now was the time to deal him, before he saw time in the AHL this coming season. That would have spelled “regression” and McCann’s trade value would have plummeted.

Gudbranson is worth more than just himself and certainly worth more than what the numbers say. His size and physicality will make other teams respect the Canucks while his Tryamkin-like play would set Hutton up very nicely for success.

And of course, the power and the intangibles of leadership are there in the 24-year-old. Young top-four materials are so rare these days, and Gudbranson may have been a bargain for the Canucks from Florida’s perspective.

Finally, Jim Benning knew what he was doing. He knew the guy he was sacrificing for, he knew how tough a division the Pacific was going to grow into. If he knew the fate of the compensatory 34th-overall pick, that would also have added a reason to trade the 33rd-overall pick.

And at the end of the day, Benning was taking advantage of a Panthers club that had a lot of re-signing to do, including a new contract for Vincent Trocheck.

Next: DECISION TIME: If it's not Dubois, it's a TRADE DOWN

These kind of trades that involve growing assets and unused draft picks are hard to judge. But by examining all facets in light of the Dougie Hamilton trade and all the other factors that were involved, I will be quite content to stay put and watch what else the never-weary Trader Jim has up his sleeve.

Vancouver may have finally found the replacement for Kevin Bieksa.

And remember: Vancouver isn’t the only city that can hate its GM.

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