So long, dear draftist “fans” of the Vancouver Canucks.
So a late-season winning streak for the Vancouver Canucks, eh? With the Canucks now sitting 26th overall in the standings, the team looks to have hushed all draftists. Especially after that win over the Los Angeles Kings on Monday night, I have no idea how fans can root for the team to lose.
That being said, winning has struck grief into the hearts of the draftists. The team has gone from an 11.5 percent chance of drafting first overall to just 8.5 percent.
But hey. Three massive wins at the cost of just three percent of picking Auston Matthews? I think the NHL has done a decent job at playing with the lottery odds.
And trust me, the Canucks are not done with winning. With three games against the two Albertan bottom feeders, you can be sure that the Canucks will end the season with more than just the 73 points that they have currently.
Youth: Winning Now means Winning Tomorrow
And let’s be honest here, Brendan Gaunce has come a long way in 15 games that he has played lately. Sure, he only has one goal this season and none after the two-game stint earlier in the season, he has shown speed, size, strength, and defensively attention in the past month.
"Gaunce has been one of the reasons we've turned things around here. He and Tryamkin have been great" - coach Desjardins #Canucks
— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) April 5, 2016
Willie Desjardins words are confirmed by the advanced stats folks. After 17 games, Gaunce is a +3.2 percent Relative Corsi For and a +6.1 percent Relative Fenwick For. That Corsi stat is second-best only to Captain Henrik Sedin and the Fenwick is tied for the team lead with none other than Chris Tanev.
Pretty good if you ask me.
The wins have come to benefit the youth. Did you not see Jared McCann splitting the Kings’ D at the Canucks blueline and going all the way to wait Jonathan Quick out?
Standings Watch: The Competition
But I would still like to see the Canucks draft Auston Matthews. The fault in the logic for draftists (and hence of the purpose of a lottery) is that losses do not equate to the ability to draft Matthews. Why not win now and draft first overall?
Right. That is the lottery’s job. No point in not playing to the best of the team’s abilities, no point in playing to the best of the team’s abilities.
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But the thing is, there is competition, though meagre.
For example, the Columbus Blue Jackets have games remaining against the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Buffalo Sabres, and the Chicago Blackhawks. They have a legitimate chance of passing the Canucks in the standings. They are just three points back.
The Canucks mathematically cannot fall to the bottom two slots. The Calgary Flames are now tied with the Canucks having played one more game. The Winnipeg Jets are one point ahead having played one more game than the Canucks have. Only Columbus stands between Vancouver and the third-best odds for Auston Matthews.
Standings Watch: Tie-Breakers in Vancouver’s Drafting Favour
One factor that helps greatly with dropping in the standings while winning is the tie-breaking procedure. At the end of the season when all 82 games are complete for all 30 teams, if teams are tied with the same number of points this procedure is applied.
The ROW column — This accounts for regulation and overtime wins. Remember how bad the Canucks were in overtime early in the season? That is really going to help should teams finish tied in the points department.
Putting that into perspective, the Canucks have 26 in the ROW column. The three teams in contention with the Canucks and their ROWs are: Winnipeg (31), Calgary (31), and Columbus (25).
So unless the Canucks get two more points than the Jets do to end the season, or one more point than the Flames do, Vancouver is guaranteed at least the fourth-best odds — 8.5 percent.
As for the Blue Jackets, unless Columbus racks up two more points than the Canucks do or gain two more ROWs, they are set to finish lower in the standings.
Around the League Reality Check
The Calgary Flames beat the L.A. Kings last night. And Hunter Shinkaruk had another goal for the Flames. Thank you Shinky, you have already accomplished more for the Canucks than Markus Granlund has.
The Jets beat the Anaheim Ducks in overtime. The win propelled them to one point ahead of the Canucks.
So let me ask you. Was it the Canucks’ fault for winning those two games? The same Ducks and the same Kings (though on the second game of a back-to-back) were defeated by other Auston Matthews bidders.
The truth is that everyone wins every once in a while. And that includes Vancouver, who stand with just a three-percent shift in the lottery odds after three terrific wins over the California teams.
Next: Brock Boeser: The Fit in Vancouver
Dear draftists, nothing to worry about. Just enjoy the game and the wins.